Episode 44 – A Pyrrhic Victory for the US and Israel?

In late February, Israeli airstrikes—soon joined by the United States—targeted key sites across Iran, triggering a chain reaction that has reshaped the Middle East almost overnight. Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks across the region and, in a move with massive global implications, closed the Strait of Hormuz, sending shockwaves through energy markets and international trade. At the same time, the internal balance of power in Tehran appears to be shifting, with the Revolutionary Guard stepping into an even more dominant role. Shortly after threatening Iran with “the destruction of their civilization,” President Trump announced a two-week long ceasefire. Does this signify, as historian Niall Ferguson suggested, a possible Pyrrhic victory for the US and Israel? Are we witnessing the beginning of a larger regional war, a forced reset of the nuclear question, or the early stages of a negotiated settlement? And how stable is Iran’s regime under the current level of pressure? We discuss these questions with Dr. Raz Zimmt, renowned expert on Iranian politics, society, and foreign policy.Dr. Raz Zimmt is the Director of the Iran and the Shiite Axis research program at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), an independent think tank affiliated with the University of Tel Aviv. He regularly provides expert commentary to Israeli and international media, including German-speaking outlets such as Neue Zürcher Zeitung, Spiegel, Frankfurter Rundschau, and Tagesspiegel. In addition to his work at INSS, he is a research fellow at the Alliance Center for Iranian Studies at Tel-Aviv University. His background is in Middle Eastern history, with a Master’s degree and a Ph.D. from Tel Aviv University, and he is the author of the book Iran From Within: State and Society in the Islamic Republic published (in Hebrew; 2022). Dr. Zimmt is a veteran Iran watcher in the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) where he served for more than two decades.Recommendations:Dr. Zimmt recommends Iranian cinema to gain a better understanding of the country's society and culture.FilmInk lists a few must-seesTagesAnzeiger has curated a list of seven films