Episode 48: $1 Trillion in Loans Maturing — Why 4.05% Treasury Is the New Normal

from Hot Not CRE · host Hot Not CRE

Episode 48 of "What's Hot, What's Not C.R.E." for Wednesday, February 25th, 2026.Topic: 10-Year Treasury — Rates & CRE Impact🔥 What's Hot:10-Year Treasury at 4.05% — down 17bps monthly, 21bps YoYDeal volume up 16% YoY, on pace for $562 billionCap rate compression of 5-15bps expected across most property typesOffice sales surged 52% from troughBid-ask spreads narrowing, liquidity returning selectivelyFed on pause at 3.5-3.75% — some officials discussed raising ratesJ.P. Morgan expects zero Fed cuts in 2026Goldman Sachs and Barclays pushed cut forecasts to September at earliest$1 trillion in CRE loans maturing this year — painful resets for overleveraged dealsNew equilibrium: rates in 4% range, financing in 5-7% rangePredictability matters more than absolute levelsDeals penciling on fundamentals, not Fed hopeStability unlocking sidelined capital❄️ What's Not:💡 Why It Matters:🎯 Investor Takeaway: Underwrite at current rates. Don't bank on Fed relief. The 10-year at 4% is workable. The waiting game is over.Visit hotnotcre.com to learn more and subscribe to our newsletter.#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #10YearTreasury #InterestRates #FederalReserve #CapRates #FOMC #TreasuryYield #RateWatch #DealFlow #TransactionVolume #RealEstateInvesting #CREInvesting #MarketUpdate #RealEstate2026 #InvestorTips #WealthBuilding #PassiveIncome #Multifamily #Industrial

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Episode 48: $1 Trillion in Loans Maturing — Why 4.05% Treasury Is the New Normal

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