Episode 5: The Day the Patent Fell

The semaglutide patent cliff played out almost exactly as the commodity-trap thesis predicted. Prices collapsed by up to 90 percent, more than 40 companies launched over 50 brands within weeks, and margins in the injectable semaglutide category compressed toward levels that will reward only the lowest-cost, highest-volume manufacturers. But the data 4-8 weeks later revealed something the commodity-trap framing alone would not have predicted. Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide, sold as Mounjaro, sitting completely outside the genericisation event (because its patents do not expire until roughly 2036) captured a larger share of category growth than semaglutide did. Doctors who had patients stable on Mounjaro mostly did not switch to cheaper semaglutide generics. Some actually increased prescriptions. This is the most important data point for understanding where actual pricing power sits in the GLP-1 category, and it is a direct, real-world confirmation of the ‘commodity trap versus the real prize’ argument first raised in Episode 2.Listen in to the next episode of the Bio-Health Supercycle Series.“My Pharma Reviews - The Podcast” is now available for you to listen on your favourite podcasting apps like Spotify and Apple. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit mypharmareviews.substack.com