Episode 51: Supply Pipeline Down 47% — Multifamily's March Reset

from What's Hot & What's Not In CRE · host Alan Pavlosky

Episode 51 of What's Hot, What's Not C.R.E. — your daily commercial real estate market briefing. Today's Topic: Residential & Multifamily — Today's Most Relevant Data 🔥 What's Hot: • Supply relief arriving — deliveries dropping from 315,000 to 260,000 units (17% decline) • Under-construction pipeline down 47% from peak to 690,000 units • Construction starts fell 40% between 2023-2025 • National vacancy peaked at 7.3%, plateauing around 8.5% through mid-year • San Jose leading — 4.6% vacancy with 0.6% rent growth in February • Grand Rapids one of the tightest markets nationally • Chicago, New York, Philadelphia remain resilient • MBA projects multifamily originations up 21% YoY — capital is flowing ❄️ What's Not: • Sun Belt still correcting — Nashville, Charlotte, Tampa, Houston, Austin, Orlando all saw rent declines (0.1-0.2% in February) • Class A vacancy as high as 11.1% • 38% of properties offering concessions • Salt Lake City in full "concession mode" • National rent growth sluggish — $1,716 average, up just 0.1% from December • Annual growth slowed to 0.4%, down from 0.6% in January 💡 Why It Matters: The market is normalizing, not accelerating. Supply pressure is easing but vacancy won't drop below 8% until 2027 or 2028. The 2026 story is stabilization and rebalancing — not rapid rent growth. 🎯 Investor Takeaway: Focus on supply-constrained markets: San Jose, Grand Rapids, Chicago, Northeast metros. Avoid oversupplied Sun Belt. Underwrite for 1-2% rent growth. Deals must pencil on current fundamentals — not hope. 🌐 Visit hotnotcre.com to learn more and subscribe to our newsletter. #CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Multifamily #WorkforceHousing #ClassBMultifamily #ClassAMultifamily #RealEstateInvesting #ApartmentInvesting #MultifamilyInvesting #SunBelt #Midwest #Northeast #PropertyInvesting #RealEstate2026 #InvestorTips #CashFlow #RealEstateMarket #MarketUpdate #OccupancyRates #RentGrowth #DataCenters #Industrial #BuildToRent #BTR #InstitutionalInvestment #CapitalFlows #SmartMoney #CREInvesting #InvestorOutlook #10YearTreasury #InterestRates #CapRates #DealFlow #TransactionVolume #WealthBuilding #PassiveIncome #SanJose #GrandRapids #Chicago

What this episode covers

Supply relief is finally here. The under-construction pipeline is down 47% from peak. Today we break down what's hot, what's not, and what it means for multifamily investors in March 2026.

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Episode 51: Supply Pipeline Down 47% — Multifamily's March Reset

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This episode was published on March 3, 2026.

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