Episode 53: 10-Year Treasury Holds at 4.09% — Why Stability Is the New Catalyst

What this episode covers

Episode 53 of What's Hot, What's Not C.R.E. — your daily commercial real estate market briefing. Today's Topic: 10-Year Treasury — Rates & CRE Impact 🔥 What's Hot: • 10-year Treasury stable at 4.09% — up just 4bps from Monday's 4.05% • Tight trading range (4.05%-4.09%) this week — predictability unlocks deal flow • Cap rate spreads back to attractive levels: Multifamily Class A at 4.5-5.25%, Industrial logistics at 5.5-6.25% • Colliers forecasts 15-20% growth in U.S. CRE transaction volume for 2026 • Through October 2025: $385.7B in transactions — up 13% YoY • Bid-ask spreads narrowing, deals penciling again • Mild cap rate compression of 5-15bps expected for 2026 in industrial and multifamily ❄️ What's Not: • Rate cut hopes fading — Fed held at 3.5-3.75% in January • March FOMC meeting: 97% probability of no change • Inflation sticky near 3% — above Fed's 2% target • Bond market signal: don't underwrite rate relief • CBO projects 10-year at 3.95% by quarter end — not a dramatic move • Long-term yields may not drop below 3.75% even with Fed cuts 💡 Why It Matters: The waiting game is over. Deals getting done today work at current rates — not future hopes. Value-add multifamily, industrial, grocery-anchored retail — capital is deploying into durable income assets regardless of rate direction. Treasury supply and large fiscal deficits keep long-term yields elevated. That's structural, not cyclical. 🎯 Investor Takeaway: Stability in the 4% to 4.25% range is the sweet spot — it unlocks transaction activity. Underwrite conservatively at current rates. Don't bet on cuts to make your deal work. Focus on fundamentals: occupancy, rent growth, cap rate spread. That's what drives returns in 2026. 🌐 Visit hotnotcre.com to learn more and subscribe to our newsletter. #CRE #CommercialRealEstate #10YearTreasury #InterestRates #CapRates #FederalReserve #FOMC #RealEstateInvesting #Multifamily #Industrial #MultifamilyInvesting #CREInvesting #DealFlow #TransactionVolume #CapRateCompression #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #RealEstate2026 #InvestorTips #MarketUpdate #InstitutionalInvestment #CapitalFlows #SmartMoney #InvestorOutlook #ValueAdd #CorePlus #RentGrowth #OccupancyRates #PropertyInvesting #CashFlow #WealthBuilding #PassiveIncome #RealEstateMarket #Inflation #FedRates #YieldCurve #FixedIncome

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