Episode 63: Fed Decision Day — Why Rate Cuts May Never Come

Episode 63 of "What's Hot, What's Not C.R.E." — Wednesday, March 18th, 2026Topic: 10-Year Treasury Note — Fed Decision Day🔥 WHAT'S HOT:10-Year Treasury at 4.21% — down from 4.28% last week, 4.31% a year ago. Stability supports CRE deal flowSweet spot for transactions: 4.0-4.25% range — we're right thereCap rate spreads attractive: Multifamily Class A 4.5-5.25%, Industrial 5.5-6.25%, Grocery-anchored retail 5.75-6.5%Fed expected to hold at 3.5-3.75% today — stability allows confident underwritingTransaction velocity improving: $562B projected for 2026 (+15-20% YoY)Inflation sticky — February CPI 2.4%, Core 2.5%. Fed's 2% target still out of reachEnergy prices a wildcard — Iran conflict pushing oil higher, could delay or eliminate rate cutsAggressive easing hopes dead — markets pricing 0-1 cuts as base case for 2026Sub-4% Treasury financing may be years away❄️ WHAT'S NOT:💡 WHY IT MATTERS:Treasury stability is unlocking deal flow even without rate cuts. Cap rate compression will be gradual: Industrial 40bps, Retail 35bps, Multifamily 25bps, Office 20bps from peaks. The era of cheap capital is over. Underwrite at current rates and focus on income.🎯 INVESTOR TAKEAWAY:Don't wait for rate cuts that may never come. 10-Year at 4.21% supports positive leverage for quality assets. Focus on cap rate spread — not rate predictions. The window for acquiring well-priced assets at attractive spreads is open now.🎧 Listen daily for your 3-minute institutional CRE briefing.🌐 Visit hotnotcre.com to learn more and subscribe to our newsletter.#CommercialRealEstate #CRE #10YearTreasury #TreasuryYield #FederalReserve #FOMC #InterestRates #RateCuts #CapRates #CREInvesting #RealEstateInvesting #Multifamily #Industrial #Retail #Inflation #CPI #DealFlow #TransactionVolume #CREFinance #RealEstateFinance #PropertyInvestment #InstitutionalCRE #MarketUpdate #WednesdayBriefing #FedDecision #BondMarket #YieldCurve #CRECapital #RealEstateNews #InvestorInsights #DailyPodcast #CREPodcast #WhatsHotWhatsNot #UnderwritingStrategy #CapRateSpread #PositiveLeverage