Episode 768: China, Setting the Conditions: Guest Dean Cheng on Midrats

At some point in the next decade, a historian is going to look at the first quarter of the 21st century from the perspective of the national security establishment and the blessings it had as it rose to global power status, and will publish the foundational reference book for those trying to understand that moment in time.Its primary rivals distracted and drained themselves in unnecessary quixotic quasi-imperial police actions, one in Central and Southwest Asia (U.S.A.), the other bled itself white attempting to reconstruct at least part of its predecessor’s empire (Russia). All the while, its economy grew, its diplomatic influence expanded, and its military became an impressive, if untested, colossus.Yes, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) had its problems and setbacks: demographic collapse, massive debt, economic fragility, and poor messaging—but so did its greatest competitors.In 2026, while most have been focused on the Iranian-Israeli-American conflict and the Russo-Ukrainian War rooted in unsolved issues from the end of the 20th century, the PRC continues its march forward into the future.Returning to the Midrats Podcast to discuss will be Dean Cheng.Dean is a Non-resident Senior Fellow, Potomac Institute for Policy Studies and Non-resident Fellow, George Washington University Space Policy Institute.He recently retired after 14 years with the Heritage Foundation, where he was a senior research fellow on Chinese political and security affairs, and wrote on various aspects of Chinese foreign and defense policy.Prior to joining the Heritage Foundation, he was a senior analyst with the China Studies Division (previously, Project Asia) at CNA from 2001-2009. Before joining CNA, he was a senior analyst with Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) from 1996-2001. From 1993-1995, he was an analyst with the US Congress’ Office of Technology Assessment in the International Security and Space Division, where he studied the Chinese defense industrial complex.He is the author of the book Cyber Dragon: Inside China’s Information Warfare and Cyber Operations (NY: Praeger Publishing, 2016), as well as a number of papers and book chapters examining various aspects of Chinese security affairs.SummaryIn this episode, Mark, Sal, and Dean Cheng discusses China’s strategic challenges, space ambitions, AI development, and regional influence, providing insights into China’s long-term plans and global impact.Show LinksTo A Louse, On Seeing One on a Lady's Bonnet at Church, Robert BurnsGreat Wall, movie with Matt Damon2012, movie Himalayas Tsunami SceneRed Cliff, movie (the good one)Chapters00:00: Introduction and overview of China’s global strategy02:38: Dean Cheng’s background and China’s long-term planning04:46: China’s strategic challenges beyond the US06:04: North Korea’s shifting alliances and regional dynamics08:06: Russia, China, and North Korea cooperation10:27: Chinese perceptions of US and regional threats12:25: Japan, Korea, and China’s regional ambitions14:29: China’s post-COVID strategic posture and influence16:03: China’s national messaging and global image17:28: Xi Jinping’s strategic vision and military buildup19:57: China’s influence in the Pacific and Arctic regions22:42: Canada, Greenland, and China’s northern ambitions31:00: China’s space program and lunar exploration49:58: The race to the moon and space dominance54:46: Future of space exploration and international standards55:33: Long-term US space strategy and Chinese competition59:36: US and Chinese space efforts and collaboration01:00:26: Conclusion