Episode 80: Trends Shaping the Back Half of 2026

In this episode of the Texas Land Guys Podcast, brothers Tom Dosch and Tim Dosch reunite after summer travels to take the pulse of the Texas land market. They break down the surprising activity in DFW multifamily, the steady but cautious vibe in Houston, and the shifting sentiment as we head into the back half of 2026.The conversation dives deep into the headwinds and tailwinds shaping the market: interest rate uncertainty, the lingering effects of the Iran war on inflation, and the massive capital still chasing “blue chip” suburban sites. They also tackle the bigger picture, including how AI is reshaping the workforce, why consumers are feeling squeezed despite positive job numbers, and the looming battle over data center development and regulation.Tom and Tim share real intel from the field, including a Plano property that generated 35 offers in 13 days, the return of infill development in Houston’s inner loop, and why some landowners may finally be forced to capitulate on pricing as bank extensions run dry. They also explore the K-shaped economy, SpaceX’s big move to Grimes County, and what the Federal Reserve’s next move could mean for developers and sellers alike.Tune in for a grounded, forward-looking discussion on where the Texas land market stands and where it’s headed through the rest of 2026.Key TakeawaysTexas real estate is showing early signs of stabilization after an uncertain first half of 2026.Multifamily fundamentals are improving in select submarkets as leasing activity strengthens.Institutional investors remain eager to acquire high-quality development sites despite elevated interest rates.Many speculative landowners continue holding unrealistic pricing expectations based on the 2021 market.Higher cap rates remain one of the biggest obstacles to new development and investment sales.Texas continues to benefit from billions of dollars in AI, energy, and infrastructure investment.Consumer affordability remains a growing concern for both housing demand and the broader economy.AI is increasing productivity across businesses, but its long-term impact on employment remains uncertain.Data centers are becoming one of the most important and controversial real estate asset classes.The second half of 2026 will likely be shaped by interest rates, AI adoption, regulation, and continued population growth in Texas.In This Episode:[00:00] Introduction[00:33] Summer travel and balancing work with family[04:36] Q2 Texas market review begins[04:51] Dallas–Fort Worth market outlook[07:22] Houston market update[08:23] Why multifamily fundamentals are improving[12:06] Q3 predictions begin[12:06] Interest rates and market expectations[18:46] Cap rates and investment sales challenges[21:36] Federal debt and inflation concerns[24:14] Consumer affordability and AI's impact on jobs[27:17] Housing affordability challenges[32:14] AI, productivity, and future employment[34:22] Data centers and AI infrastructure[36:07] Public resistance to AI and regulation[37:48] Why Texas remains well-positioned[40:23] Final predictions for the second half of 2026[40:55] Closing remarks Resources and LinksPodcastTexas Land Guys Podcasthttps://dmre.com/Tom Doschhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/tom-dosch-37263b3b/https://dmre.com/https://ascentinv.com/https://100xharvest.org/Tim Doschhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/tim-dosch-67a07899https://dmre.com/https://ascentinv.com/https://100xharvest.org/