Episode 81: Where the Herd Is Going (And What They're Missing)

In this episode of the Texas Land Guys Podcast, Tom Dosch sits down with Trey McGhin to examine where development activity is moving across Dallas-Fort Worth. They break down improving multifamily leasing, stronger industrial demand, and the submarkets attracting the most attention from developers and investors.The conversation explores why apartment concessions are beginning to tighten after years of oversupply and declining rents. Tom and Trey explain how fewer construction starts, lower construction costs, and improved leasing velocity could create a meaningful opportunity for multifamily developers who can secure capital.They also address the disconnect between improving real estate fundamentals and one of the toughest equity markets experienced developers have seen. Institutional investors remain cautious, while developers with private capital, creative financing, and strong equity relationships are finding ways to stay active.Tom and Trey share real intelligence from the field, including nearly 40 offers on a Plano property, strong leasing velocity in Grand Prairie, record-setting land sales in McKinney, and rising industrial demand tied to AI and data centers. They also identify markets where raising capital remains difficult and highlight the areas they believe offer the strongest opportunities over the next three to five years.Key TakeawaysMultifamily leasing is improving across several established DFW submarkets.Apartment concessions are tightening as fewer projects enter the pipeline.Lower construction costs are creating a temporary opportunity for developers.Institutional equity remains difficult to secure despite improving fundamentals.Industrial demand continues to strengthen because of AI and data centers.Grand Prairie remains strong across multiple development types.Plano is becoming one of DFW’s most competitive development markets.McKinney and Celina may offer strong long-term opportunities.Chisholm Trail, Anna, Melissa, Denton, and Celina remain challenging for institutional capital.In this episode:[00:00] Introduction[00:28] Tom Dosch welcomes Trey McGhin[02:32] A volatile start to 2026[03:14] Interest rate uncertainty[04:38] Improving multifamily leasing across DFW[07:29] Has the apartment market reached the bottom?[09:40] Lower construction starts and future rent growth[11:44] Why it may be go time for multifamily developers[12:45] Falling construction costs[13:21] AI, data centers, and industrial demand[14:22] Improving fundamentals versus the equity freeze[16:19] Where the development herd is going[18:15] Grand Prairie and North Dallas demand[24:28] Plano’s development momentum[29:20] The long-term case for McKinney[30:42] Celina’s short-term challenges[35:00] The top DFW markets for development[37:21] Markets where raising capital remains difficult[39:08] Closing remarksResources and LinksPodcastTexas Land Guys Podcasthttps://dmre.com/Trey McGhinlinkedin.com/in/trey-mcghin-14926960https://dmre.com/https://ascentinv.com/https://100xharvest.org/Tom Doschhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/tom-dosch-37263b3b/https://dmre.com/https://ascentinv.com/https://100xharvest.org/