Episode Harry Watson (443): Tavares Hits 1000pts. Over and Under Achievers. TOTW Tampa Bay Lightning

John Tavares hits 1000 points vs the Islanders. After 30 games, what teams are overachieving and which are underachieving? We do a bit of a statistical evaluation to predict the rest of the season.  Team of the Week is the Tampa Bay Lightning.    Listen Here:  iTunes  Google Play  Stitcher  Direct MP3   iHeart Radio   Title Player: Harry Watson - connect to John Tavares News: 1. Tavares gets 1000th pt vs Islanders Leafs continue to go to OT - 27 GP - 15-6-6 / 13 OT games - 7-6    2nd in division despite injuries Matthews at 23 G - on pace for 70G 2. Kyle Connor out 6-8 weeks - no suspension for Strome? https://youtu.be/TPZow5phhEA?feature=shared 3. 2 investigations into Wild front office AGM Chris O'Hearn fired or "agreed to part ways" Was Guerin's right hand man Something is afoot but everyone is very quiet 4. Rob Ray takes puck to face between the benches - https://youtu.be/E3z40vmKm5s?feature=shared 5. Oilers finally lose a game - need help for Skinner Outshot Lighting 57-24 and lost 7-4  Lost 5-1 to Panthers 6. All Star Game - back to skills 8 skills - 12 players compete for $1MM prize Guess the 5th Who is for real and who is not? Method - xGF% - GF% - per Naturalstattrick.com at 5v5 Top 5 Pretenders Vancouver - 48.7-61.2 Winnipeg - 49.6 - 59.4 Detroit - 46.8-55.8 Boston - 50.1-56.9 Arizona - 47.2-51.8 Top 5 Underachievers - xGF%-GF% - Oilers - 58.0 - 47.4 New Jersey 53.3-46.09 Calgary - 51.9 - 45.5 Carolina - 55.7-50.4 Seattle - 51.3-47.1 ** San Jose and Anaheim have large difference but xGF is still well below 50% so wouldn't expect much improvement Team of the Week Tampa Bay - xGF% 48.98 - 44.78 Should expect some improvement, but not good enough SF% 48.37 (21) GF% 44.78% (29) xGF% 48.97 (19)  SV% 90.24 (26) SH% 8.45 (15) Vasilevskiy .902 after injury - expect that to improve Kucherov - 50pts, 1st in league Depth? Hagel-Point-Kucherov - most TOI - dominant stats 62% GF Anyone plays with Kucherov - stats are over 50% Without, almost everyone below. BucPower - turnovers like crazy - via  Statmuse.com TBL are 9th in league in GVA with 250 League leaders- CHI, MTL, EDM, NSH, TOR Kucherov leads league with 41.  (Draisaitl next with 37) D Pairs Hedman / Perbix - 231:58 - xGF 41% GF% 52 Cernak / Sergachaev - 218:15 - xGF 47.9% GF% 42 Raddysh / Sergachaev - 217:36 xGF 55.6 GF 20% Of all regular 6 D, Hedman is only one with +50% GF Summary - I think depth is the story. Kucherov is pushing the river but supporting cast is weak Need Vasilievskiy to save them Hot / Not Atlantic - TOR 5-1-4 / OTT 3-7-0  - 4 teams with 5 wins Metro - NYI 6-1-3 / CBJ 4-5-1 - (NJD 7-3-0 ) Centroal - NSH 7-3-0 / CHI 3-6-1 - Pacific - EDM 8-2-0 / ANA 1-9-0  - (Van 7-3-0, SJS 6-3-1) Crazy Stat DOPeS - Perron 6 games suspension for cross checking Zub NHLPA Appealing  - will they go to an arbitrator? Gudbranson 1 Game -https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/player-safety/erik-gudbranson-suspended-one-game-for-actions-in-blue-jackets-game Should hit by cousens on Gudbranson have been a suspension? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GfShpOFYqZs Pastrnak kicked out of game vs Rangers for similar hit