Euro: looking past oil volatility

Global markets kicked off the week on a softer note, with rising yields and renewed oil volatility weighing on investor sentiment. The US dollar initially extended losses as softer US jobs, inflation and retail sales data tempered expectations for Federal Reserve tightening. But the move reversed as US crude jumped above $85 per barrel, reviving inflation concerns and demand for the greenback. In FX, USDJPY is pushing back toward the critical 160 level despite growing pressure on the Bank of Japan to address persistent yen weakness. Meanwhile, the outlook for EURUSD is becoming more constructive as the pair breaks out of its recent bearish trend. Beyond short-term oil volatility, softer Fed expectations, a cautious ECB and longer-term concerns around US debt and dollar debasement could continue to support the euro. But geopolitical tensions and a renewed European energy shock remain important risks to that outlook. Listen to find out more! Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020, and launched her own website ipekScope.com in 2025.