Every A&D Sector Is Up, Here’s Why That Matters w/ Bill Alderman & Ryan Kirby

Most people think a “hot” M&A market means: inflated prices, reckless buyers, and deals that will eventually fall apart. That’s not what we’re seeing in aerospace and defense right now. What we’re watching instead is something far more unusual and powerful. Every major segment of the industry is firing at once. Defense, commercial aviation, business jets, and space are all growing simultaneously.  The companies coming to market aren’t missing forecasts; they’re beating them. Buyers aren’t walking away when things get hard. They’re leaning in, working through issues that used to kill deals, because they know something fundamental has changed. This is not a fragile bubble. It’s a structural shift. Capacity is the new currency. The players who survived COVID are full, booked, and unable to meet demand. Strategic buyers are no longer just chasing IP; they’re buying throughput, people, certifications, and physical capabilities.  At the same time, private equity has specialized at a level we’ve never seen before, building aerospace-only platforms that can compete head-to-head with strategics. The middle market, once an “hourglass” with little depth, is filling in fast. And when you zoom out, the macro picture makes it even more obvious. Public aerospace and defense companies are trading at premiums to the broader market. Commercial launches into orbit are compounding at extraordinary rates. Aircraft production is rising sharply, engine backlogs stretch for years, and defense spending remains structurally elevated.  And across all of it, the barriers to entry have created enormous moats that protect the entire ecosystem. In this episode, I sit down again with Bill Alderman and Ryan Kirby from Alderman & Co to unpack what’s really happening inside the middle-market aerospace and defense deal environment, and why, for the first time in decades, every major segment is moving in the same direction.   You’ll also learn; Why “high prices” don’t mean a fragile market, and what actually signals stability How capacity has replaced IP as the most valuable acquisition driver Why deals that once died in diligence are now getting done What’s changed in private equity’s role in aerospace and defense How the middle market is reshaping the industry’s “hourglass” structure The data behind the explosive growth in space launches and aircraft production Why public market multiples confirm (not contradict) the M&A environment How pure-play spin-offs and carve-outs may redefine the next wave of consolidation The hidden risk facing the defense industrial base: labor, not demand Why the biggest threat to the market isn’t visible yet, and what “Black Swan” really means for M&A   About the Guests William H. Alderman (Bill) is the Founding Partner of Alderman & Company. Bill is an M&A specialist in the middle market of the aerospace and defense industry with over $2 billion in mergers and acquisition-related transactions to his name. Before founding Alderman & Company in 2001, Bill worked for 15 years on Wall Street and in the Aerospace & Defense Industry, principally on M&A transactions in the middle market. His employers included BT Securities, Fieldstone, and General Electric. Bill is a Securities Principal registered with the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) and has four securities industry licenses (Series 7, 24, 63, and 65). Bill is a commercial pilot and owns and operates a Cirrus SR22. URL Link: https://www.aldermanco.com/ LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/williamalderman/   Ryan Kirby has penultimate authority and responsibility for the overall management of Alderman & Company, including all client engagements and the management of firm personnel. Before becoming a partner of the firm, Ryan rose through the ranks from Associate to Vice President and has extensive hands-on experience in all aspects of the sale process, valuations, and fairness opinions. Ryan has specialized in the Aerospace, Defense, and Space industries stemming from his education and previous work experience. Ryan completed his BS in Business Administration, concentrating in Accounting and Finance at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University. He went on to complete his MBA at Embry-Riddle, concentrating in Finance, graduating summa cum laude and with a 4.0 GPA. Previously, Ryan completed a project funded by NASA, which built a finance and business case for the mitigation of space debris in lower earth orbit. Additionally, his work has included analyzing the development of the urban air mobility industry and the funding that accelerated its growth, and the use case of sustainable aviation fuel in business aviation. Ryan has previous work experience in Financial Planning and Analysis. Ryan joined the Alderman & Company team as an intern during his graduate years at Embry-Riddle. Upon graduation, he joined the firm as an Associate and was promoted to Vice President in 2022.  Email: [email protected] Phone: 368-664-864 LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryan-kirby-880875174    About Your Host Craig Picken is an Executive Recruiter, writer, speaker, and ICF Trained Executive Coach. He is focused on recruiting senior-level leadership, sales, and operations executives in the aviation and aerospace industry. His clients include premier OEMs, aircraft operators, leasing/financial organizations, and Maintenance/Repair/Overhaul (MRO) providers, and since 2008, he has personally concluded more than 400 executive-level searches in a variety of disciplines. Craig is the ONLY industry executive recruiter who has professionally flown airplanes, sold airplanes, and successfully run a P&L in the aviation industry. His professional career started with a passion for airplanes. After eight years’ experience as a decorated Naval Flight Officer – with more than 100 combat missions, 2,000 hours of flight time, and 325 aircraft carrier landings – Craig sought challenges in business aviation, where he spent more than 7 years in sales with both Gulfstream Aircraft and Bombardier Business Aircraft. Craig is also a sought-after industry speaker who has presented at Corporate Jet Investor, International Aviation Women’s Association, and SOCAL Aviation Association.