Everyone’s Waiting for a Housing Crash. The Data Says No

Welcome back to The Paul Morris Podcast, brought to you by Entrepreneur Media. In this State of the Market episode, I break down why the housing crash so many people are waiting for still is not showing up in the data. Existing home sales just hit a five-month high, prices are still rising year over year, inventory remains far from crash territory, and first-time buyers are back in the market. I also walk through the bigger forces shaping real estate right now: mortgage rates, inflation, gas prices, the Fed, the war’s impact on oil, and why global headlines can quietly affect your monthly payment. But the biggest lesson is that national data only gets you so far. Your real edge as a buyer or investor comes from knowing your local market, your submarket, and even your street better than anyone else. I talk about why waiting for the perfect moment can cost you, why you should underwrite deals at today’s rates instead of betting on a refinance, and how buyers may still have a window to negotiate before the crowd comes back in. If you want to understand what is actually happening in the market without the hype, this episode is for you. *Connect with Paul*Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/paulmarkmorris/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@itspaulmarkmorrisYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@paulmorrispodcastFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/paulmarkmorris  *Presented by Entrepreneur Media & Money News Network*Entrepreneur Media: https://www.entrepreneur.com/podcastsMoney News Network: https://www.moneynewsnetwork.com Timestamps 00:00:00 State of the Market Intro 00:00:47 Crash in 2026 No 00:00:58 Sales Surge Despite Chaos 00:01:53 Inventory and Supply Explained 00:02:56 First Time Buyers Return 00:04:28 Forecasts and Local Reality 00:05:52 Hot and Cold Metro Swings 00:08:19 Micro Markets Matter Most 00:10:35 Is Now a Good Time 00:11:12 Buyer Leverage and Waiting Cost 00:13:10 Local Edge and ADUs 00:15:19 Mortgage Rates in 2026 00:16:12 Oil to Rates Chain 00:18:39 Fed Shift and Warsh 00:21:34 War Peace Gas and Action Plan Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices