Everything moving on the Texas grid

The PUCT approved the southernmost of three 765 kV paths into the Permian on September 13. It has not approved the center path: administrative law judges recommended denying it in August, and chairman Thomas Gleeson sent it back asking what the lines are needed for and what they would save customers. Michael Webber’s answer is that Texas has run this experiment. CREZ, the Competitive Renewable Energy Zone program finished around 2014, was primarily 345 kV and lowered costs, cut emissions and improved reliability. His case for 765 kV is right of way: more capacity per corridor means fewer corridors, and corridors are what landowners object to. The same answer runs through most of what is moving on the grid. On this week’s Energy Capital Podcast, Joshua Rhodes talks with Webber, a professor at the University of Texas at Austin. * The case for AI: Anthropic, OpenAI and xAI leaders called for a global slowdown in September. Webber says nobody has explained what the technology is for. “The case has not been made strongly.” * Who is resisting, and why: degrowth politics on right and left, a youth movement against data centers, and law firms pushing associates toward AI while the partners who would have trained them work remote. Webber reads the water-and-noise objections as displaced anxiety about AI. * Where the gas goes: a bigger grid lets Texas sell gas at $8 to $15 rather than burn it at $3, and lets Houston draw West Texas solar instead of adding gas plants to its airshed. * Hormuz: about 20 percent of world oil moves through the strait, plus fertilizer and chip inputs. US diesel averaged $6.06 a gallon on September 11. Texas will be fine, Webber says; Bangladesh and Pakistan will not. * Affordability in November: electricity bills creep up through distribution costs, transformers and wildfire hardening, while fuel prices move by the day. Webber expects an anti-incumbent mood. * Scarcity and abundance: US electricity demand was flat for 20 years and is growing again. Webber wants data centers treated as a way through scarcity, not its cause. * Plus: why the headline numbers frightened everyone inside six months, what the next six months hold, and why the grid needs helicopter pilots. Chapters * 00:00 – Introduction * 01:03 – Where Texas is building fast, and where it is not * 02:19 – Why the data center mood flipped * 05:18 – The AI slowdown letter * 08:45 – Why younger workers are pushing back on AI * 12:32 – Junior lawyers, junior engineers, and mastering the fundamentals * 16:42 – Whether energy for AI is a social good * 19:26 – The case the hyperscalers have not made * 21:51 – The argument for 765 kV * 26:34 – West Texas solar and Houston's peak * 28:54 – Hormuz, molecules, and what Texas exports * 33:00 – Affordability heading into November * 39:05 – Scarcity, abundance, and a drama-free summer * 42:02 – What the next six months hold Resources People & Organizations * Joshua Rhodes (LinkedIn) * Webber Energy Group (Website - LinkedIn) * IdeaSmiths (Website - LinkedIn) * Energy Capital (LinkedIn - YouTube) * Michael Webber (Website - LinkedIn - X) * LBJ School of Public Affairs (Faculty page) * Walker Department of Mechanical Engineering (Faculty page) * Kay Bailey Hutchison Energy Center (Website) Company & Industry News * Regulators approve controversial southern 765-kV transmission line * Texas grid expansion splinters conservatives as data center backlash grows * Facing an estimated 474 GW of interconnection requests, Texas hits pause on data centers * The AI industry faces a bipartisan grassroots fight Books, Articles & Filings Discussed * Economic impacts of 765kV transmission development in support of Texas and Houston-area reliability * ERCOT - Trending topic: 345-kV and Texas 765-kV strategic transmission expansion * ERCOT - Reliability plan for the Permian Basin region * PUCT - Approval of the first extra high voltage transmission lines in the ERCOT region * Judges recommend regulators reject proposed 765-kV line * Top regulator recommends remanding transmission project to administrative law judges * Costs and emissions reductions from the Competitive Renewable Energy Zones wind transmission project in Texas * Anthropic, OpenAI CEOs call for slowdown in AI development * Using AI, mathematicians find hidden glitches in fluid equations * EIA - Strait of Hormuz is chokepoint for 20% of world’s oil Related Podcasts by Energy Capital * Build Fast or Fall Behind with Michael Webber * Texas competes on everything except transmission * Inside the PUC’s Cost-Allocation Overhaul with PUC Chairman Gleeson * What the Sierra Club wants from the Texas grid * Texas Got Tested, Grid Stayed Upright Related Posts by Texas Energy & Power * Data centers say they pay their way; Texas will hold them to it * More Generation, More Transmission, More Load, More Challenges: Texas Grid Roundup #90 * A Tale of Three Performance Reviews: Texas Grid Roundup #94 Transcript Joshua Rhodes: Hey everyone, and welcome back to another edition of the Energy Capital Podcast. I’m really excited to have Michael Webber back. I think we’re probably gonna get on some kinda six-month rotation with him just to kinda talk about all things energy in Texas, ‘cause there is never a shortage of things to talk about related to those. But for those who may have not seen the first episode that we’ve had about six months ago, we’ll put that in the show notes. But Michael’s a professor at the University of Texas at Austin, where he’s a Sid Richardson Chair at the LBJ School of Public Affairs, as well as the Cockrell Family’s Chair in Mechanical Engineering in the Engineering Department. He’s also the former CTO at Energy Impact Partners, a former Chief Science and Technology Officer at ENGIE in Paris, and the founding partner of IdeaSmiths. Since then, has been— is now running an energy opinion column regular every couple weeks for the Houston Chronicle. His work sits at the intersection of energy, engineering, policy, and commercialization. Michael Webber, welcome back to the Energy Capital Podcast. Michael Webber: Thank you. It’s always fun to have a chance for a conversation with you. Joshua Rhodes: For sure. So about six months ago, you know, one of the big themes in the podcast when we were talking was that Texas needed to build faster or kinda fall behind, or one of your big things was Texas needed to build fast or fall behind. So looking back since then, do you think we’re building fast enough? Or are we falling behind? Challenges changed? What’s really changed in the last six months? Michael Webber: We are building quickly on some things. We’re building new power plants, especially solar and some power capacity like batteries and a little bit of wind and gas. So we’re doing a good job building new sources of power. Doing a pretty good job building load, new factories, gigafactories, advanced factories or data centers. So that’s a good news story in terms of our ability to keep up with things. We are not as fast today at building transmission, although we have been fast in relatively recent history, so I’m optimistic we can do that again. And we’ve had issues building gas pipelines and sometimes water facilities we’ve been slow at. So there are places where we have a lot of success on the power side, some success on the gas infrastructure side, but also some shortages on transmission and other things. So it’s like we got a mixed record, but still pretty good. We’re better at it still than anywhere else in the United States and almost as good as anywhere in the world. Joshua Rhodes: Absolutely. Are there two or three developments in the past six months that have maybe has challenged your view the way Texas is headed? You have any idea what they’d be? Michael Webber: Yeah. The two big political things that have emerged that I see is sort of a anti-development or degrowth movement on the right and the left politically around data centers and transmission. So we’re seeing non-traditional political bedfellows in opposition to getting some things done, so that feels relatively new, especially the flipped opinion on data centers. That’s gone from very exciting t… This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.texasenergyandpower.com/subscribe