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Ex-CIA analyst predicted Iran crisis years ago - so why was Trump surprised? episode artwork

EPISODE · Jun 3, 2026 · 38 MIN

Ex-CIA analyst predicted Iran crisis years ago - so why was Trump surprised?

from The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim

In 2012, a former CIA analyst ran a war game between the US and Iran.One of the first things he found was that Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz after America attacked. From there, his war game spiralled to a grisly end.So why did the Trump administration expect a quick victory?Fourteen years after the war game, Richard Engel sits down with Ken Pollack - the man behind the war game and now vice president for policy at the Middle East Institute to ask him exactly this.Would Trump and his team have been given this information? Why did he press ahead?The two also discuss the situation inside Iran as well as Israel's renewed strike on Lebanon, and ask the big question: where is this all going next?You can email your questions to Richard and Yalda at [email protected] can also watch our podcasts on our YouTube channel here.

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Ex-CIA analyst predicted Iran crisis years ago - so why was Trump surprised?

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How long is this episode of The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim?

This episode is 38 minutes long.

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This episode was published on June 3, 2026.

What is this episode about?

In 2012, a former CIA analyst ran a war game between the US and Iran.One of the first things he found was that Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz after America attacked. From there, his war game spiralled to a grisly end.So why did the Trump...

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