Extended Deterrence in the Indo-Pacific

We welcome Mira Rapp-Hooper, a partner at The Asia Group, political scientist, and the former Senior Director for East Asia and Oceania on President Biden’s NSC, as well as Zack Cooper, a Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where he focuses on American strategy in the Indo-Pacific and U.S.-China competition, with earlier stops in a his career in At DoD and the NSC, academia, and think tankery. On today’s pod, the four of us discuss the evolving nuclear landscape in the Indo-Pacific, stresses on U.S. nuclear strategy including extended deterrence in the region, particularly in light of China's nuclear modernization, and the implications for U.S. allies. We spend most of our time talking about what allies may want from the United States these days in terms of a reinvigorated nuclear assurance and more broadly, predictability in U.S. foreign policy. We talk about what U.S. nuclear posture could or should look like in the region as well, and dive into the NATO extended deterrence history to compare past lessons to today’s Indo-Pacific dynamics.Finally, we touch on North Korea, past work by the Biden Administration (and preceding administrations) to shore up extended deterrence in the region, and the importance of mini-lateral mechanisms (bi, tri, quad coordination) to enhance regional security. While focusing for the most part on how to enhance extended deterrence software, we also discuss the necessity of adapting alliance posture to address multiple peer threats.Bios for our guests:MiraZack Reading list:* Mira Rapp-Hooper, “Shields of the Republic: The Triumph and Peril of America’s Alliances.” * Zack Cooper, “Tides of Fortune: The Rise and Decline of Great Militaries,” and “Trump’s Strategic Choice: Prioritization or Retrenchment.” * DoD’s 2024 China Military Power Report.* Federation of American Scientists’ 2025 China “Nuclear Notebook,” co-authored by Hans M. Kristensen, Matt Korda, Eliana Johns, and Mackenzie Knight and published in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists.Intro music licensed by Soundstripe: “The Iron Curtain” by Wicked Cinema. Recording and edits through Riverside.fm. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit strategicsimplicity.substack.com