Facing Credit: Pessimism and Performance

Welcome back to the Fintech Takes podcast. I'm Alex Johnson, joined by Dave Wasik, Partner at 2nd Order Solutions, for another episode of Facing Credit, our series on everything credit and lending. Dave comes armed with 2nd Order Solutions' new credit trends report, and the headline is: things are surprisingly OK, albeit there are yellow flags. Bankruptcies are up 14% year over year. New credit card vintages from Q1 and Q2 2025 are already delinquent at higher rates than prior cohorts. The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment is at an all-time low in its recorded history. The squeeze is getting tighter.  Dave and I dig into: Why consumer sentiment and economic performance have diverged, and what the 1970s can and can't tell us about this moment The K-shaped economy and whose vibes are actually driving consumer spending Why the models aren't broken, the borrowers are just under more strain than they've been in years What happens when you eliminate disparate impact enforcement at the federal level and hand the states a vacuum to fill We close with a format we're calling the non-AI draft. Dave and I each pick two trends in credit and lending that would be dominating every conversation if AI weren't the only thing anyone can talk about. Tune in for our picks! This episode is brought to you by Persona.  The best fintechs expand what's possible for users. Persona does that for fraud prevention. Their recently upgraded link analysis tool surfaces connections in real time, letting you spot deepfakes, identity farms, and fraud rings during onboarding and investigations.  They just published their Fraud Leader's Guide to Link Analysis, a practical look at today’s top risk signals, automating decisions, and scaling link analysis for fraud prevention. Download it now: http://withpersona.com/ftt-fraud  Sign up for Alex’s Fintech Takes newsletter for the latest insightful analysis on fintech trends, along with a heaping pile of pop culture references and copious footnotes. Every Monday and Thursday: https://workweek.com/brand/fintech-takes/ And for more exclusive insider content, don’t forget to check out my YouTube page. Follow Dave: LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/davewasik/ Follow Alex Johnson:  YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCJgfH47QEwbQmkQlz1V9rQA/videos LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/alexhjohnson X: https://www.twitter.com/AlexH_Johnson