Fall Harvest Market Report & Recommendations EP 14

In this episode of Get the Scoop with Smirks podcast, hosts Elisa Lewis and Garrett McBride delve into the intricacies of the Northern Hemisphere's fall harvest. As a leading supplier of organic and conventional bulk ingredients, Smirks closely monitors the global markets to provide timely insights into various crops. 

This episode sheds light on pumpkin seeds, chia seeds, sunflower seeds, oats, and California nuts—specifically almonds and walnuts. Additionally, Garrett offers a comprehensive market report on coconut, flax, and ocean freight rates.

Pumpkin Seeds from China

China, which accounts for about 70% of global pumpkin seed production, has significantly increased its planting acreage this year. The harvest began in late August and wrapped up in late September, showing a strong supply and low export demand. Speculators have largely stayed away, leading to softened markets and favorable conditions for buyers.

Chia Seeds from Paraguay

 A late summer drought affected the northern growing region, impacting what was expected to be a bumper crop. This year's crop is anticipated to be closer to a 50-50 split between organic and conventional chia seeds, deviating from the typical 30% organic. Shipments have slowed due to low water levels in the Paraguay River to ocean ports. 

Sunflower Seeds from Eastern Europe and the USA

Eastern Europe faced a brutally hot summer, leading to severe crop damage and reduced yield and quality. In the U.S. planting for kernel crops is estimated to be down by around 30% compared to last year. With limited supply and increasing demand, markets are firming up, making immediate contracting advisable.

Oats from Canada

The Canadian prairies experienced optimal weather, resulting in a strong harvest yield compared to last year. While the yield is strong, there are some concerns about the oats being lighter in weight. Smirks encourages companies looking for product to contract now for next year's coverage, including gluten-free and regenerative organic certified options.

California Nuts: Almonds and Walnuts

With the excellent weather during the bloom and increased bee flight hours Smirk's is seeing promising crop. Despite a smaller crop last year and minimal carry-in, rising global demand is pushing prices up. Smirks is actively closing contracts for California tree nuts for 2025 and recommends clients lock in their positions soon.

Coconut Market Report

The El Niño weather conditions reduced both the size of coconuts and the overall crop globally, causing supply chain gaps and driving prices up to levels seen during the COVID-19 pandemic. Diversifying supply chains and securing coverage through Q2 of 2025 is advised to mitigate risks. Similar supply challenges are affecting coconut sugar due to El Niño and early Ramadan in 2024. Cashew markets remain firm with increasing prices.

Smirks' deep connections with suppliers and their commitment to monitoring these markets provide invaluable insights for businesses relying on these ingredients.

For those in the industry, now is a critical time to assess your fall crop needs. Whether you're a regular user or new to organic or conventional pumpkin seeds, chia seeds, sunflower seeds, oats, or California almonds and walnuts, Smirks is equipped to help you navigate these complex markets.

Thank you for joining us in exploring the 2024 fall harvest insights. We look forward to keeping you informed on the latest market trends and helping you make the best purchasing decisions for your business.

If you haven't already, subscribe to the Get the Scoop with Smirks podcast to receive immediate access to each new episode. For personalized assistance, reach out to Smirks at [email protected]. 

October Market Report

Coconut Market

• Strong market volatility in coconut is expected to persist through Q1 2025 due to reduced crop sizes caused by El Niño.

• Smaller crop and reduced nut size have led to supply chain gaps and rising prices, with levels comparable to those seen during COVID-19.

Country-Specific Updates

• Philippines: Significant production reductions, with some nuts up to 50% smaller. Some suppliers may cut production on open orders by up to 30%. Full recovery expected by April 2025.

• Sri Lanka: Crop reduced by 40%, with prices rising due to a shortage. Improvements not expected until at least April 2025.

• Indonesia: High demand from Chinese buyers drove price increases. Tight supply expected until at least Q2 of 2025.

• Vietnam: Reliable shipping thus far, but prices have increased significantly. Relief may come in November/December 2024.

Recommendations

• Secure coverage through Q2 of 2025 to guarantee supply while maintaining flexibility if market conditions improve.

• Diversify supply chains with multiple origins to mitigate risk.

Coconut Sugar Market

• Supply chains were heavily impacted in Indonesia, causing a raw material shortage and price increases by 30%.

• Early Ramadan in 2024 further strained the supply chain. Similar issues are expected for Ramadan 2025 (Feb 28 - Mar 29).

• The 2024 implementation of new NOP organic rules caused additional delays in shipments.

• Outlook Market recovery is expected by Q2 2025, but caution is advised due to ongoing supply chain issues and high prices.

Cashew Market

• Firm Prices: Prices have increased, especially in Vietnam, where both raw cashew nut and FOB prices have gone up by about $0.10 per pound.

• Organic Cashews: Processors are running low on organic nuts, contributing to rising prices.

• Smirks is actively booking contracts for the first half of 2025. Early contracting is advised due to ongoing price volatility.

Sunflower Market

• USA sunflower kernel prices have risen sharply due to increased demand linked to East Coast port strikes.

• Domestic bakery kernels are already tight, and further price increases are expected as demand rises.

• Stay in close contact for real-time updates on sunflower kernel availability and market conditions.

Overall Recommendations

• For coconut, coconut sugar, and cashews, securing partial coverage through Q2 2025 is recommended to ensure supply while keeping options open for price adjustments if the market improves.

• Keep an eye on ongoing developments, especially for sunflowers, where port strikes and supply issues may further impact pricing.