Fed broke the rate narrative. NVDA and AI capex face a new math | Ep 46

Daniel Newman and Shay Boloor are live on The Futurum Equities Podcast, breaking down how and why the Fed just handed the market a regime change disguised as a hold. If you're running any AI or tech exposure right now you need to understand what actually happened. The Fed kept rates at 3.5% to 3.75%, but that's the least interesting part of the decision. The dot plot median shifted to 3.8% year-end, nine of eighteen officials are now projecting a 2026 hike, and the cutting-bias language got stripped from the statement entirely. The 2-year Treasury confirmed it immediately, jumping 14 basis points to 4.153%. That's the bond market telling you this is structural. For NVDA, MSFT, META, GOOGL, AMZN, and PLTR, which are all priced on multi-year earnings streams, a higher discount rate compresses multiples even when the fundamentals don't change. Daniel and Shay will pressure-test each name against that reality. The hyperscaler capex commitments are also load-bearing: META guided $125 to $145 billion, MSFT is at $120 billion-plus, AMZN is at $200 billion, and GOOGL is at $175 to $185 billion. That contracted demand flows through to NVDA's data-center segment regardless of where the 2-year goes.