Fed hike is probably the less-bad option

Markets are heading into the Fed decision with a clear message: a 25bp rate hike may actually be the less-bad option. With Fed funds futures overwhelmingly positioned for a hike, a surprise hold could raise uncomfortable questions about inflation credibility — especially as oil prices and Treasury yields move increasingly closely together. Broadly, the US 10-year yield has pushed above 5%, putting pressure on bonds, equity valuations and financing conditions. Yet not every company is equally vulnerable. Hyperscalers like Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon still generate returns on invested capital well above their cost of capital, giving them a substantial cushion against higher rates. Highly leveraged and capital-intensive businesses may not be so lucky. Could a firm Fed stance ultimately help anchor long-term inflation expectations and relieve pressure on the long end? And how high can Treasury yields climb before equity markets finally feel the heat? Listen to find out more! Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020, and launched her own website ipekScope.com in 2025.