Federal Reserve in Focus: Rates, Risks, and the Road Ahead

The US Federal Reserve is always in the spotlight, and that spotlight is brighter than ever in 2026. In this episode of The Decisive, economist Lawrence Nelson, our resident Fed expert at S&P Global Market Intelligence, breaks down why the central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates steady at its January meeting, and what "sticky" inflation could mean for the first part of the year. We also examine the leadership uncertainty ahead of Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair ending in May, including how a US Justice Department investigation could complicate the transition—without necessarily changing the Fed's data-driven approach to monetary policy.  The episode offers a quick refresher on the Fed's dual mandate, the key indicators policymakers watch, and how disruptions—such as last year's government shutdown—can impact the data flow the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) relies on when setting rates. Listen now to learn more about what our Fed expert is watching in January and beyond, and gain insights to guide your business decisions in the year ahead.  More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: Listen: The Decisive | Episode 13 - How US Monetary Policy Works Top 10 Economic Insights 2026 The Age of Agility: Key Themes for 2026 For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Weekly Economic Commentary Inflation indications Bubble trouble: Lessons from the dotcom days Credits: Host: Kristen Hallam Guest: Lawrence Nelson Produced By: Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun