FIDF LIVE BRIEFING: Jonathan Schanzer, Executive Director, FDD - 6.14.26

Lara Krinsky opens this briefing by framing the moment as fast-moving and unstable, with Israel facing pressure to accept deals even as Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas continue testing red lines. Jonathan Schanzer explains that the recent “ceasefire war” exposed Iran’s attempt to fold Lebanon into the Iran ceasefire, while Hezbollah kept attacking Israel with rockets and FPV drones until Israel finally struck major Hezbollah targets and then hit Iran after Tehran fired ballistic missiles. He argues Israel established an important deterrent message: Iran does not get to dictate what Israel can do in Lebanon, and attacks on Israel will be answered more painfully than they were delivered. Schanzer says President Trump’s push for a deal reflects real constraints—finite U.S. munitions, air-defense burdens, domestic politics, oil prices, and pressure from Gulf states—but that Iran’s downing of a U.S. helicopter appears to have reinforced the lesson that weakness invites more aggression. He outlines a possible path that does not require a full renewed hot war: sustained economic pressure, a blockade on Iranian oil exports, targeted strikes when necessary, and continued messaging to the Iranian people until the regime buckles. The briefing closes by warning that Turkey may be the next major regional threat if Iran weakens, while also noting real IDF progress in Gaza, where Israel has expanded its control beyond the original “yellow line” and significantly reduced Hamas’s ability to threaten southern Israel.