FIDF LIVE SPECIAL BRIEFING: Jonathan Schanzer, Foundation for Defense Democracies (FDD) - April 19, 2026

Lara Krinsky opens the briefing by saying the week’s “pause” feels less like an ending and more like a setup, and she brings on Jonathan Schanzer (FDD) to explain the contradictory messaging and whether the ceasefires with Iran and Lebanon can hold. He argues the U.S.-Israel conventional campaign badly weakened Iran, but warns the regime is using the lull to rearm—refurbishing missile launchers and seeking Chinese inputs like drone parts and chemical precursors—raising the odds of renewed fighting. Schanzer says the bigger complication is Iran’s asymmetric “economic war” through the Strait of Hormuz, which spiked energy prices and pushed Trump toward a ceasefire to stabilize markets. He describes the U.S. response as “Operation Economic Fury,” centered on a blockade and expanded sanctions meant to choke Iran’s oil revenues—potentially costing the regime hundreds of millions per day—while leaving Israel watching from the wings. On Lebanon, he highlights a new tension point: pressure from Iran and others to fold Lebanon into the ceasefire, Trump publicly telling Israel to stop bombing, and Israel’s concern that delays benefit Hezbollah after major mobilization. He closes by saying the coming weeks hinge on whether Iran’s economic coercion forces U.S. choices, whether the Iranian people can unify if a “phase two” emerges, and whether Israel can seize a rare diplomatic opening with Lebanon without letting Hezbollah regroup.