FIDF LIVE SPECIAL BRIEFING: LTC (Ret.) Or Horvitz, National Security Expert, Elsight - 4.26.2026

Lara Krinsky opens by warning that public messaging doesn’t match the hidden “movements beneath the surface,” then speaks with Lt. Col. (Res.) Or Horovitz about a fragile window in which the Middle East could tip into either renewed war or a drawn-out stalemate. Horovitz says the key U.S. pressure point is the Strait of Hormuz—where Iran’s harassment and a U.S. maritime blockade are colliding—while the deeper, harder issues remain Iran’s nuclear program and ballistic missiles, where he sees little “zone of agreement.” He describes Iran’s leadership as fragmented and incoherent after recent upheaval, with the IRGC potentially calling the shots and still telling itself a delusional “survival equals victory” story that makes concessions unlikely. On China, he argues Beijing’s priority is restoring steady oil flow, but warns that even “dual-use” Chinese materials could massively accelerate Iran’s missile production if not stopped through U.S. economic leverage. Horovitz says Israel’s strategic imperative is regime destabilization over time—Reagan-versus-the-Soviets style—while simultaneously preventing Iran from rebuilding nuclear and missile capabilities, and he frames removing Iran’s enriched uranium as the single most important near-term outcome. He also sees a rare opportunity in Lebanon: under U.S. “umbrella” diplomacy, Israel and Lebanese officials could move toward a peace process that steadily drains Hezbollah of Iranian money and influence, even as Hezbollah tries to sabotage talks with provocations and the region’s next looming challenge becomes Turkey as the Shiite axis weakens.