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I'm Amanda Dabbins. And this is the big picture, a conversation show about the big race, if one even exists at this point. We are deep into a board season, Oscar voting has just about concluded. Later in this episode we'll be joined by Tom Oyer, a longtime fixture of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
Tom has been a key figure in evolving how voting for the Oscars works, and understands it really as well as anyone on the planet. So we invited him to come on the show, help us understand what has just transpired, what voting has been like for the last 10 years, what we need to know about how our Oscar sausage is made. But first, March 10th, Rose Closer, how are you feeling, Amanda? Are you feeling excited about the imminent arrival of the Oscars and the conclusion of the award season?
I like an award show, as you know. I watched One This Weekend on replay, which is just on a Saturday night, which I had to look in the mirror and look at some of my life choices. But also, I had a nice time. So I'm looking forward to that.
I think we always look forward, we get excited, we make some predictions. There's maybe one surprise thing that we don't know will happen, what will happen. And then we go through the process and feel like a sense of letdown, which is life. So sure, yes, I'm excited.
I'm embracing life and the Oscars. That surprise you're suggesting, those are fewer and farther between as our award season evolves because there are so many precursors. This weekend, we saw three precursors. We saw the SAG Awards, we saw the producers Guild Awards, and we also saw the Independence Bureau Awards, a little bit less so of a meaningful precursor than what happens to the Oscars.
But there have been quite a few now. And so the race is really settling into place. Do you want to talk about SAG? You watched the SAG Awards on Netflix streaming service.
I watched them on the Netflix streaming service. I turned them on live around 620 PST to catch the last bit. My son sat and watched with us. Just he kept saying talking over and over again, which was an accurate representation.
We're talking. And then I am not an actor. Yeah. Well, we had missed that.
And as you know, that's one of the awards season highlights for me, and it happens. So after bedtime, I go back and I'm like, well, I'll just watch the beginning to find out who is an actor this year. And suddenly I'm just I've asked boarded through a lot. Thank you to Netflix for that capability.
But I did watch the entire thing. So Netflix, this is the first time I think that a proper streaming service has been the primary carrier for an award show. And of course, Netflix had shows and movies competing at this awards. I don't really think that there's any conflict of interest.
There are obviously ABC broadcasts, the Academy Awards by Disney. But there is something a little bit different when you're entering the portal where you can watch beef or where you can watch my strobe. And I got to say, I didn't think Netflix really like had their thumb on the scale too much. They use some of their in-house talent to hand friends, for example, you know, ABC does that and they do that in terms of Disney movies as well as their network TV stars.
Yeah. So I didn't feel a meaningful difference. I watched it live. And for the most part, I thought it was a pretty good telecast.
I don't, you know, I'm not a huge fan of the SAG Awards show. Historically, I can't think of many great moments as much as they want to valorize, you know, the history of that award show. But I thought it was fairly smooth. A little bit of audio trouble.
It was a little bit tinny in the room. Yeah. The production values were inexperienced. I would say it was a little shaggy, which all things on Netflix are.
It was very funny to me that it just like ran a little long. And since there were no time constraints, everyone was just kind of like, oh, oh, wait, you want me to go on stage now? You know, there wasn't that sort of military position that I think years of live, like broadcast television have brought down. I agree.
The sound was a little off and everyone just kind of seemed to be like looking over their shoulder being like, so now I go just a little bit. But at the same time, you know, they had some cast reunions. They had some bits. I would say most of the bits didn't work.
The bits didn't work in a wardrobe. What? I thought it was a pretty like the ratio of bits working to not working was not what you wanted. And I say that is the world's number one double wears Prada fan like in the world.
Maybe do you think I am? Do you think there's anyone who's a bigger double wears Prada fan than me? Gosh, that sounds like a really exciting contest. Like, I mean, I guess in a civilian way, there are probably people who just update like tumblers all day long and I can't compete with that.
There's like other things to do. Right. Right. Like at all to Miranda Priestley on Twitter, you know, someone who's just like, but I have to be up there.
Right. Definitely. I think you're one of the great advocates for the film. Okay.
Thank you. I was going to say I'm one of the great experts on the film as well, but that's fine. That that reunion was pretty awkward. And that was another thing where it's like the timing, the comedic timing of two incredibly or I guess three incredibly funny people in Emily Blond and in Hathaway who were kind of doing random priests and lines back at Merrill who forgot her glasses and was doing kind of like Daffy Merrill.
But and maybe some of that was like the sound and so they couldn't get the time. You know, it was like a little off and those are three stone cold pros, but it just didn't quite land. And that's kind of how the whole show went. Yeah.
It being Netflix, you think they'll just be canceling this telecast for three seasons? Like how do you think it's just going to go long term? Well, the people that be the permanent home of the Sagg Awards. The Sagg Awards themselves did try every, you know, it just all the who hosted and friend Drasher who gave just it.
I thought disastrous speech. What's really long? It was long and didn't read the room and you could feel the room is really turning away in real time. It was meant to be a rabble rouser speech and I wouldn't say that there was a lot of enthusiasm in the room.
Didn't hit the marks. It was also sort of dissociative. You know, it went a lot of places and there was like the whole girl boss red limit, which is, you know, that's that's tough for me. But she was your girl, Lira at that time.
Did you have it under your bed or was in the bank? Where were you keeping it during that speech? We're trying to pull it out of the bank, you know, then it comes to runs on the whole system. It was very difficult.
I understood. But even as she was giving like a kind of fiery, I guess speech about how we defeated the, you know, the systems of evil, she's like, thank you so much. Netflix for hosting us. I'm like, OK, that's not quite adding up and completely.
You know, we can all do the math and there were many thank yous to Netflix throughout the night for hosting and for making this possible. So I think other money's work. Yeah, I enjoyed it. Dresselba.
I thought he was surprisingly a flea foot on stage and the game for the bits and kind of like maybe a little bit more winningly smarmy than I expected. And that's like, that's a mode of comedy that can work if you do it well. So I really enjoyed him. I thought to myself, gosh, I could see him hosting the Oscars.
It's not so hard to believe. He's got that thing that a lot of 80s and 90s hosts had were sort of like Chevy Chase or Goldie Hawn, but show up to host the Oscars. And I was like a movie star. This is a person I love to see in my movies actually hosting the show.
I think is the last time that happened? Is it is an halfway in James Franco? Is that the last time a proper movie star? You know, I know the Steve Martin's of the world.
Was it Hugh Jackman after that? Maybe Hugh Jackman was immediately after that. He was fantastic obviously. And the Ted Man, Seth MacFarlane.
Yes, not exactly. I'm a movie star. I do like read up and have you watched the Ted TV series on Pecan? No, I haven't been to commercials.
Make me laugh. I have to be really honest. Like Ted one is good. It also made me laugh.
Like that bear saying dirty things is inappropriate. It makes me laugh. You're a simple girl. You're like simple things like animated bears cursing at nine year olds.
Let's talk about the actual awards, even though we're in a place now where this is getting a little boring and you know, we're going to keep our energy. I know. I know. I mean, I was really nervous about this in like August.
You know, I was like, Oh shit, like Alpenheimer's just going to run the table here. Yeah. And that is what is happening. I mean, we can talk about them.
I think the most interesting thing that happened first, which is that Lily Gladstone won best actress and I've really been unsure of this. The whole time. Every time I think it's a really glad stone and I'm still in something. Every time I think it's a stone, really glad so in something.
So what we have here is a genuine and interesting Academy Awards race. We have somebody who's, you know, won the Saggorte, somebody who's won the BAFTA, you know, they split the gloves because of their two separate categories there. And so now we have like what feels like the one barn burner of the race. What do you think of the Lily win and her speech and everything?
So you put in here. Let's talk about Emma Stone's reaction, you know, because everyone was in their little box and Emma Stone erupts in what seemed to me genuine excitement for Lily Gladstone. Now she is also an Oscar winning actress and one of the best at just being a movie star being a very supportive colleague and also the star of the curse, which is a show about taking things from native people. So she's being smart.
She's just, but it did feel genuine. And I thought that it mirrored the red the room was psyched that the room was like really excited and after the globe's when people seem really noisy in there. And because the room had been sort of flat throughout the rest of the show, everybody's on their feet. Everybody's really excited.
Her speech, I thought again was wonderful and, you know, and was about what being an actor means to her in the power of empathy. And like those are things that can sound really canned and sort of fake therapy or whatever. And it's genuine and moving from her. And you could like, there's a great reaction shot of John Lithgow just being like, yes, like that was wonderful.
Yeah, I thought that too. Yeah. So people were really, really into it, which is wonderful because I am too, like that performance was extraordinary. So that kind of suggests, okay, so like she really has people behind her.
And you know, SAG is like a very big voting branch. So maybe it will tip that way. But I don't know. I keep thinking back to Glenn Close won the SAG award.
Well, this is I did a little bit of research on this over the weekend. And last year SAG matched four for four. I think the year before that, it also matched four for four on all the acting categories. In the last since 2010, I think only eight times across all four major acting categories.
SAG has not matched with the Academy Awards. So that's eight out of what I guess would be 56. Yeah. And that's a low percentage.
There are sometimes some really odd ones like the year that Regina King won the Oscar for If Beel Street could talk, she wasn't even nominated for a SAG award. And there have been moments like that. You know, you mentioned the Olivia Coleman Glenn Close, you know, mismatch. There have been a few of those, but for the most part, these are very closely aligned.
I can't really get a strong feel for what BAFTA means anymore and whether how representative it is. It used to be a much more significant precursor to the Academy Awards, but Emma Stone winning their indicates that she still has strength. The favorite or excuse me, poor things may have much more support internationally than kills the Flower Moon because of your ghost, because of the nature of the production. So it's it feels pretty tight.
Yeah. The only other thing about BAFTA is that Lily Gladstone was not even nominated. Yes. Well, their nomination process is truly bizarre.
But but so even there in terms of precursors and represented, that was not sort of a head to head. That's a good point. So yeah, I really don't know either. I was watching a thinking, okay, so what are my predictions going to be?
And what am I going to do here? Absolutely. I'm starting to feel really good about 90%. And then there's a few which we'll get into that are still a little bit open.
You know, the things that are not open seemingly at this point are best picture, best actor and best supporting actor, all of which at SAG went to Oppenheimer for Robert Johnny Jr., for killing Murphy, and of course for the cast and ensemble of Oppenheimer. I don't think it's going to matter, but I think our DJ was a little too comfortable in speech. I was like, I was like, we're, you know, taking it maybe a little bit for granted. I don't think it's going to affect anything.
But if I knew that I were giving a speech during Oscar voting, I might nail it out a little bit more. Is this like some latent, I'm a Gosling gal situation coming up? No, I was just like, I have been charmed by most of his other speeches and I was like, you're phoning this one in. And I know that he'll be able to get.
Speaking of winningly, Marme. I mean, you know, I'm just saying that was my note was I would have tried a little more, but it's fine. I know he'll bring it home for the Oscar. I'll be genuinely stunned if he does not win.
Yeah, I will as well. But I also think he'll give a great speech with, you know, love. I think it'll be very moving. This one was sort of just like, oh, thanks so much.
Yeah, some jokes, a joke about my wife, basically. That was the totality of it. Now, Kelly Murphy, there's been a strong contingent of Paul Giamatti True Believers out there. Yeah.
He won for best comedy, mainly performance at the Golden Globes. And ever since then, there's been some thinking that maybe his work in the holdovers would, you know, recognize like an amazing 35 year career of playing like lovable, hectoring losers. That does not appear to be the case. No, because Kelly Murphy keeps winning these darn awards.
He was well. He's a fan of a big fan. Great, great acceptance speech also, just great vibes. Yeah, we love the Irish, don't we?
Yeah. He he's not giving a classical, off-mic best actor performance in that movie. And so I think that that's what's been lingering for people, but there's something a little bit more restrained and quiet about his Oppenheimer. He's doing a lot of his aging going through time.
It is a biopic. You know, it is a movie that feels familiar, but it's not in the Mercury on stage screaming. Yeah. You know, like it's not the same thing.
But there's a physicality to it. Also, they've been doing a lot of press about how he didn't need anything and just like took as and didn't get to party with everyone else. That sounds just like my life. It doesn't eat, takes baths and doesn't socialize.
It's very familiar to me. I appreciated his suggestion that Olivia, is it Terilby or is that just Irish? How are we saying? Olivia Terilby?
Olivia Terilby. Olivia Terilby. I think it's Terilby. Yeah.
Well, Olivia Terilby who created the name Oppenhomies should trademark and merchandise that. I think that's great idea. I think Universal might have something to say about that honestly. But you know, that would be good.
That would be good. That would be good merch if they had any worry about winning, which I think they do at this point. There was roughly 80 more minutes of this show. It was just giving out awards to TV shows that we've already seen four more times on TV between the Globes, the Critics' Choice, the People's Choice, and the Emmys all happening in the last six weeks.
I just feel like, and got shout out to Beef, terrific TV show. You know, shout out to all the succession people. They're doing great. Happy for that.
Elizabeth DeBickey loved to see her eight foot nine standing on stage. She looked phenomenal. These people just keep winning TV awards TV. It's dead.
Did you hear? It's a rap. I saw an interview with Denis Villeneuve and he was like, TV is all about talking. I'm not about talking.
I'm about images. Yeah. I'm about cinema and we will talk about his cinema later this week. We sure are.
I'm very excited about that. Just I don't. I'm good on TV awards. Just stop winning my movie awards.
That's my thing. Separate. Okay. But that is how you get people to actually watch your awards is because the cast of the bear or the cast of succession is going to be there.
But is that true because they front load these shows with all the TV awards because they're like these all matter. You're going to stick around for all the real awards that matter at the end of the show. There were no TV awards in the final 40 minutes except for best cast. Yeah.
I think that that is specific to SAG literally being during the Oscar voting window and they know that's the one way they can put the thumb on the scale. Okay. I don't know. The rest of the award shows I have to do to see what I always wearing.
She looks fantastic as always. So I just want to get this clear. Yeah. You prefer television to film.
I don't. I don't have any shows. You're not watching anything. No, I'm literally watching those shows.
Mr. Spade ended. I didn't totally understand it, but I enjoyed it. Well, so then it sounds like a same space.
Yeah, I was like this does feel like multi talking curb your enthusiasm. Oh, I forgot about that. I, you know, I don't know how to turn the TV on for like 30 minutes of laughing. That's just not my routine anymore.
You don't know how to turn the TV on for 30 minutes of laughing. That's what you just said. I just doesn't occur to me. Interesting.
This is quite a phase for you. Wait till your 40s are going to be amazing. I'm so pumped. It gets worse.
I have a lot of thoughts about Mr. and Mrs. Smith, but I don't really know where to put those. I have seen one episode.
I watched the first time that I liked a lot and I just there is a type of millennial affect that I understand is about all the cool millennials do, which is how would you describe yourself millennial was not cool because I actually have energy, you know, and I speak like I'm awake and sometimes like I'm too awake and sometimes it just just raise a generation. I burn them to the ground. But you know what I'm talking about. I do and you can think of a lot of people who we know are just like, okay, okay.
Is this a my or skin shot? No, I love my or skin part of my problem is that she has the ability to like really dial it up and to beat the what is the movie that she did with? Is it Jack played? Yes.
Plus one. And when she's like there's a dance sequence that she does, it's one of the funniest things I've seen in lesson. She's funny. She's dynamic.
I like her a lot, but there was just something about like the mood of that show. I'm also a huge general lover fan. They are just going for the I guess they're, you know, they're two people who can't connect with anyone. So they're sort of disaffected and so I so I like it as a basically a dead-eyed reading of the gig economy in the 2020s.
Yeah. Yeah. When you work in those jobs, that is how you feel about the world. Totally.
So I like the idea of valid. It interpretation and reflection to the world and also once again. And I'm like, now it's time to turn on my, you know, giggle box. I'm I going to do it?
It's not a very funny show. There's a funny. I'm just like, is this how I want to spend an hour? This is the watch with Chris and Andy.
Thanks so much for listening. Other highlights from the SAG Awards. The best thing that happened during this helicopter by far was in the immediate aftermath of the barber Strice and clip package. And I'm going to say a wonderful night for clips of the SAG Awards, which was presented by Jennifer Aniston and Bradley Cooper, the cutaway to the introduction of Barbara to Anne Hathaway, who was in tears and who is just is undefeated is undefeated at being in Hathaway and actually doing exactly what you're describing, which is always bringing energy.
She is not a young millennial. She is an old, a clearly an elder millennial. And sometimes she just can't hide her enthusiasm, her joy, her sadness, her world of feeling before the world. And I just I loved it.
And frankly, that is how one should respond to clips. I thought that the clip montage of Barbra Streisand was invigorating. What is your favorite Barbra Streisand movie? I love the way we were.
Really? Yeah. That's good. Well, you know, the Robert Redford of it all.
So you mentioned the Sex and the City thing influences that isn't Hubble. Isn't that the? Yeah. Yeah.
Your girl has really talked about that. And as I told you, it's referenced in the new Jennifer Lopez movie. Oh, yeah. I watched it.
Just incoherently. Just the the ravings of a Madwoman. I cannot. I can't believe that exists.
She paid for it or something. Have you watched the documentary? I haven't. This is coming out.
It's under embargo until Tuesday. Oh, well, be careful. Sorry. Yeah.
It's not disturbing Oscar race here. Excuse me. I don't want Jennifer Lopez on my bad side. Okay.
I thought the documentary is absolutely invigorating. There's also a clip where she's she and Ben Affleck are wandering around set like some studio out where they're filming and she's just looking at all the camera trucks full of equipment and she's like, I'm paying for that. I'm paying for that. What the hell is that?
What I'm paying for that and Ben gets in and goes full of camera nerd and he's like, well, this is this lens and this lens and she's just looking. She literally looks at the camera and is like, I don't care. And I was incredible. It was incredible.
It was like an episode of the picture. Yeah. It was wonderful. So I listened to Rodrigo Prieto, the cinematographer of both Barbie and Killers of the Firemoon on WTF Mark Maron's spot and he talked about working with Affleck.
I think on Argo and he talked about how Affleck. Didn't really know very much about the lenses and the choices that Prieto is being really good interview, very specific. Prieto has worked on like literally 15 tremendous movies, but he talked about this experience with Ben where he was like, Ben didn't really know what this stuff was, but if I told him what it wasn't, I explained it to him, he never forgot. He always, he has like a mouse trap brain.
So I think that that speaks to some of his success. You know, he's got a little bit of that like photographic. Like I can speak back to you about what it is that we're talking about. I wonder if that is aided him in his work with Jennifer Lopez in her marriage.
I think that this documentary is a fascinating study of their marriage and I recommend it. What do you think Bradley Cooper's glasses? You know, I like them. Yeah, they look good.
I thought it was one of the better. We haven't talked about his Louvaton hat or the giant hat that he was wearing in London with Gigi Hidien. I didn't see that. Then LeBron wore it.
It's like the you always talk to me like I look at the Daily Mail and I literally do not. This went beyond the Daily Mail. This was like on the Internet that all the people. Like the Feral Hat.
Yeah. It was like large. It was huge. Wow.
And then LeBron wore it like a week later to the next and I think you went to. Oh, wow. Because I think that game because Julie at Litman let me know about it immediately in real time because we're following the hat. Yeah.
I was getting lost for the next very painful. They're so depleted right now. Okay. My husband and I were talking about like ranking the sports that we would hope not plays if he wants to play sports.
Yeah. He doesn't want to. That's fine. Basketball is the bottom of my list.
What? Yeah. I just I can't do it. Honestly shame on you.
It's just shame on you. The volume of the games. There are so many games. The majesty of the squeaking sneakers.
Nothing matters. It's like John Williams. Until the last three minutes. And then the last three minutes take 45 minutes.
I mean just a horror. I mean like truly like you should go to the shame den for that. That's that's how I feel. Not only will Knox play basketball, but he will be an exceptional power for.
Does the fact that he might be left handed help him? Absolutely. Yeah. I mean that I don't really know why Knox.
Me and not the magic city. Yeah. Put in a 30 10 and 10. That's okay.
That part's fine. Okay. But I don't want to say through the basketball games and the rampant quitting. That is not ideal.
Yeah. The game has been an issue. The NBA has some issues basketball. Beautiful sport.
Yeah. Anyway, what were we talking about? You were talking about Bradley Cooper's hat. Well, I so his fashion this award season has not enough.
And I thought that the SAG Awards is pretty good. My guy like it. There was a very cool thing. I don't know about cool thing.
But a fun thing during the SAG Awards that I think that more awards shows could stand to do, which you know, Lee Sandwalter, who's one of the stars of Abad-Al Menry, did effectively like a like a tour montage of what it's like to be an attendee of the SAG Awards. And so cameras kind of followed her almost surveillance style as she hobnobbed with various celebrities, almost all of whom were much more famous than her. And frankly, I thought it was fascinating. It was like watching an anthropological documentary about the way that monkeys live or something, you know, it was because she the way that she had to do what you were describing earlier bring her energy up to encounter a Robert Downey Junior or Bradley Cooper to seem engaging to be memorable so that she could.
And then when I was in the show, I was like, I'm not going to be able to exist on the food chain of celebrity. I thought it was fascinating stuff and frankly much better than just looking at a still photograph and the daily mail, I was like, this is the real sausage getting made here. Like this is how people interact in these environments. It's true.
It was a little, it had elements of curve to it, you know, and so which made me a little uncomfortable. There's also a lot of work to do. So at least in Walter, it's to me, the cow's keeper and surrogate mother figure from Nancy Myers's parent draft. That's right.
Because I haven't done Abad-Al Menry. So you don't, but you don't, but you don't watch 30-minute giggle box. I try, I try to watch this pilot. Now what do I do?
I go for a walk. I have a sandwich. What do you expect to happen after that? It was like 830 at night and I was kind of like, where do we go from here?
You know? Go to bed. How about that? This being your true struggle is incredible.
Anyway, she was doing like a, like a her style of comedy and the way she was going for it. You know, she's brassy. Yeah. And so I was like, okay, enough, but it was definitely interesting.
Do you think that this is confirmation that Netflix is effectively, if not broadcast television, now basic cable? Yeah. You know, for years, the second words aired on TNT and TBS. And, you know, Netflix has been trending towards being this licensing more and more content from other studios.
It sounds like they're going to be pulling back on how many movies that they make, got stupors out now. Seems like maybe their award strategy is lessening a little bit. You know, they're going for the fancy cheeseburger, you know, Beljarias sitting at that, which she has the Maestro table. She was the Maestro team.
Maybe the beef table, I can't remember which one. So this just kind of felt like, oh, yeah, like they're putting on a tennis match this week. Yeah. You know, like this is now just kind of becoming the catch all if you have Netflix and you can see most of what's available, which is that how I think generations younger than us are seeing on the TV and you always turn on Netflix.
Yeah. But that was something that was long. This has been long bandied about, but it didn't feel real for me personally until I watched this show. And that's because you're an awards show freak.
I don't know that it. They've only had a very small number of live programs. It's been basically like reality show after shows, which one of which went disastrously wrong, the fire call. It did.
They like broke the machine. Dave Chang's been doing a super fun show called Dinnertime where he has like two celebrities come and sit while he cooks live for them. I guess they're going to do more and more stuff like this. But this is something that is like is a TV show that has been on television for 20 years.
Right. And then, aside from the occasional F-bomb, they've just ported it into this space. And I would imagine that more people now watch it than did on TV. Oh, for sure.
I would love to know how many people watch it. Yeah. But I am sure just because of its available worldwide, as they said. And also the way you can watch it on delay, which of course, like if you had TV or DVR or something, you could do that in the past.
Right. You had to have like ported it and being like, oh, yeah, it's the SAG Awards. I mean, the fact that they were on Saturday night instead of Sunday, it was sort of surprising to me. But I can't remember if they're usually Saturday or Sunday.
I know it's always a gone-lick weekend because the independence periods are often on the same weekend. Yeah. I think that the awards show of it probably makes it more significant to you and me than the average Netflix user. Yes.
It's another notch in their belt. Let's talk about the PGA's quickly, which is always considered the strongest precursor for the picture race, Oppenheimer also won. So Oppenheimer has now won the Golden Globe, the BAFTA, the critics' choice, the SAG award, the DJI award, and the PGA. This is just the 11th time in history that a film has won the SAG DJ and DJ together.
This is over. You don't want to say it taking the sheets? This is over. That was good.
That was a good outline moment for me. Thank you. You don't have to do every joke. You don't have to read it.
Just because you wrote it doesn't mean you have to share it, but I'm glad you enjoyed it. Is there any chance? You know what? Let's save it.
We'll save it for our final Best Picture Power Rankings. There's always like a chance. I want to know what you think is kind of in 2, 3, 4 right now because that's what's relevant to that part. I did want to ask you an over-under question.
Do you know what over-under means, right? Yes, I do. So eight and a half Oscars for Oppenheimer, which has 13 nominations. Over or under?
Okay, let's just count. Best picture, best director, best actor, best supporting actor. That's four. Yes.
Best editing, five, best score, six. A dad's three plays an interesting one. I don't know about that. That one is a coin toss, I think.
What are the obvious ones I forget? Cinematography. Oh, cinematography, of course. That's, to me, those seven are close to locks, which is crazy to say that there are seven locks.
After that, not sound. Sound is... I know, but... That is a real race because there's a very split contingent of people who have seen and appreciate and admire the intention behind his own of interest and then everybody else who saw it.
It's a good point. So I'm not ready to say that's his own... Okay, but I don't feel confident being like, yes, that's an obvious one. So I'm still at seven.
Let's see. What else could it pick up? I don't think makeup, I feel like production design and costume will go to poor things or Barbie or some, probably poor things. I don't think that it's not going to be costume design.
Production design is an interesting one. Barbie and Killers of the Flower Moon and poor things all have exceptional production design. But when there's a wave like this, sometimes everything starts going in its direction. So it's very possible that that goes in its direction and then also that adapted screenplay goes in its direction.
And if that happens, that gets us to nine. Right. But if those two don't, then it's seven. So I guess I'm going with under.
Okay. Under eight and a half. So you're saying eight or seven. That's not how over under works.
That's true. So I'm saying under. Very well. I'm glad I created this game for us.
Spiderman across the Spider-Verse wins animated motion picture. Go ahead, John. Are you excited or are you feeling conflicted? I'm feeling very conflicted.
Yeah, sure. The Boy and the Heron won at the BAFTA. So again, very similar to Best Actress. We have a real two-horse race between Spiderman and Hyomi and Zaki.
I really know. I mean, they both would be good wins. In the back of my head, it's like, you don't give Lord of the Rings the two towers, the award. You give the return of the King the award.
And this kind of feels like what they would do with Spiderman. However, Spiderman already won the last animated Spiderman movie won Best Animated Feature. And that also makes me think, well, then I'm going to give it to it two times in a row. Hyomi and Zaki, you may never make another movie.
Even though that movie is probably incoherent to people who are half watching it on the Academy screen portal. So I don't know. I'm torn. I don't really have a preference, ultimately.
You'll be happy either way. I think I will be. You'll also feel some regret either way. Well, that's just me and Jill.
Yeah, I know. American Symphony won documentary. The Academy Awards. So I think this was widely considered the biggest quote unquote Snub in the documentary category.
Actually, when Tom Wayer comes on, I want to talk to him a little bit about documentary and how that branch works and how they're learning it now. They're all very angsty. It's a complicated time in the world of feature nonfiction is what I would say. And I think that the documentary branch is making some choices to represent its point of view on what is the best work.
In a minute, I didn't watch them this year. I do really like this show, but I just was not able to. Anybody who said yeah, they're like early after or late afternoon? Yes, I did 2 p.m.
Pacific, which is a tricky time during the day. The big one was Passlives, which won both best feature and best director. Nice to see. Is Passlives, Passlives, not going to win the Oscars?
Probably not. Okay. Jeffrey Wright won best performance. Dave and Joy Randolph, the only person to win at every award show.
Right. She won every one of the SAG Awards. Oh, yeah, yeah. But she won at the SAG Awards.
Gave a lovely speech. She did. She did. This is one of the more dominant runs in recent award show history.
East Mount Aries Zone. Is that true? Yeah. Which I'm claiming by proxy, but I spent everything.
You didn't grow up next door to Dave and Joy. No, I didn't. I spent everything in her neighborhood. Dominic Sessa also from the holdovers won Breakthrough Performance.
I'm just begging you, I'm just begging them. Yeah. Wouldn't it be nice to have Dom? Okay.
It's continue. Oh, yeah. I mean, he's still doing like the full. I don't know if I was actually Tom Ford, but you know, full like Tom Ford.
Well, Taylor Blacksuit. Yeah. And the hair. Askew in a fashionable way.
How do you feel about hair height on men? You asked me this last night as regarding Timothy Chalamet. Yeah. So I've been on my mind lately.
In an introduction to a film that he gave a film coming out that wore me nameless. You can guess what it is. That's always imaginary. A murderous imaginary doll.
And I'm just going to say that the film is promoting worldwide. I think if you have the hair to back it up, it's great. Okay. What does that mean?
To back it up or to push it up? Both. Yeah. I guess because you don't want the hair to, it needs to feel full throughout, right?
You don't want it to look like you've propped it up to cover any absence of hair, right? Oh, yes. So you need to be able to back it up. You need to have it in the front as well.
So you're anti-comer, is that what you're saying? Yeah. Really? So if I were balding, if I had a lot of...
You just have to pick it immediately. Pick it immediately. Yeah, you do. Immediately?
What... Meaning like I wake up one morning, I get in the shower and I've got four hairs in my hand. No, but like once... I mean, that's part of life.
Hair loss is part of life for everyone. I see. As you age. Just so you know.
But no, once it's noticeable during the day, once you are taking measures to try to distract from it, then you got to pick it. You got to live out loud. I feel about the oils that reportedly help it grow. Oh, like the neutral fall and all that sort of stuff.
I have not tried it myself. I know people who really like neutral fall. I don't know about... I don't know about...
I haven't really investigated men's hair growth. I'll tell you a little story. I went to the Vista Theater on Tuesday during wellness week. How was your wellness week?
It was fine. Okay. Great. Mine was also fine.
I went to the Vista to go see Flower Drum Song. I had a movie I never seen. You texted me. Yeah.
1960s. Musical starring Antico on the movie. Not the kind of movie that would be made today and certainly has problematic aspects out there. Nevertheless, I enjoyed myself.
The Vista, much like the New Beverly, which is also owned by Quintarind Tarantino, often does a little pre-show. So the real trailers for upcoming movies for the vintage trailers, they'll also often show a cartoon when they showed a rapid of Seville, which is a riff on barber of Seville. It's all about Bugs Bunny being chased by Elmer Fudd, but then he draws Elmer into an opera house where they're performing an opera and that opera is all about barber. At a certain point, Bugs Bunny puts a certain lotion on Elmer's head while he's in the barber seat and Elmer Fudd grows hair.
I got to say, it was hilarious. I love Bugs Bunny. I just thought of it because we were talking about hair growth. May I tell you about my Looney Tunes parody that I saw when I went to the New Beverly?
Yeah. Since we last recorded, I guess, to see Casablanca. That was my delayed Valentine's Day date with my husband. And so they showed Carrot Blanca?
Oh, yeah, yeah. Which was really funny. I enjoyed it. What a great match for Casablanca.
It was good. So it was Bugs Rick? Yes. So that was...
Who was Elmer? I don't remember. I mean, I'm not as conversant in the... This was your first animated cartoon you've ever seen.
It's kind of likely to do this, but I don't remember the rest. A couple of other wins at the Spirits. Corg Jefferson won Best Screenplay, which I think is interesting and I think Corg has a chance to win Adapted Screenplay, which is something we'll talk more about next week, I think. Sammy Birch won Best First Screenplay for Made December.
She's also nominated at the Oscars. If you rock well on Best First Feature for a thousand and one, another award that I wish that we'd give out at the Oscars. Yes. Another movie I really like a lot.
WGA's were announced. The writers' guild delayed their nominations in part because of the strikes. And so, you know, typically a pretty meaningful precursor to spite the fact that the nominees don't always match with the Oscars has been muted this year. The nominees for Original are Air, Barbie, the holdovers made December and past lives.
That's particularly chaotic because Barbie is not eligible in Original at the Oscars. Air is not nominated there. And then Adapted Screenplay is American Fiction. Are you there?
The killers of the Flower Moon, Nyaad and Oppenheimer. Nyaad, that's weird. Anyway, this is an odd bunch. Did you think much about this?
Did you spend sleepless hours after viewing one 30-minute program? I forgot to look it up. And when you said, are you ready to record? I rapidly scrolled down to the bottom.
The doc was like, let me just read these nominees. You know what? It's nice to win awards from your peers, so I wish everyone well. I liked most of these movies.
Thanks for preparing for this vlog. You had an entire week off. Thank you so much. Speaking of screenplay, there were a few interesting results of the BAFTAs, which was not this past weekend that we came before that, but we haven't recorded since then.