Financial History as Superpower: Sir Niall Ferguson on Markets, Mistakes, and Making Big Calls

What this episode covers

Justin Thomson, head of the T. Rowe Price Investment Institute, sits down with renowned historian and author Sir Niall Ferguson to discuss the value of financial history for investors. Together they explore how understanding long-term historical patterns, rather than relying solely on recent data or economic theory, can offer critical insights for navigating markets and making big investment calls. Sir Niall reflects on lessons learned from past prediction mistakes, the importance of intellectual honesty, and often the need to identify the one major event that can define a year for markets. The conversation also covers frameworks for assessing geopolitical risk, the evolution and constants of financial markets, and the concept of U.S. exceptionalism in global equities. Sir Niall believes that knowing financial history can be a superpower for investors and offers a candid perspective on what might shape markets in 2026.

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