“Finding the Mole: Bayesianism is Hard” by laniakea

I first encountered LessWrong a couple months ago, and since then I've been a regular reader of posts here, including parts of the Sequences. Bayesianism is a major topic in them, and I wanted to try it myself. An ideal candidate was the Flemish TV show 'The Mole' (Dutch: 'De Mol'). In this post, I want to share my methodology & results, but I also want to ask for advice. I consider my results to be mixed at best, and I would really like tips & feedback so I can do better next time. If any fellow Flemish are reading this who also watched 'The Mole', I'm curious to hear whether you got it right and how you went about it. Concept of the TV show The TV show 'The Mole' is very popular in Flanders[1]. The concept goes as follows: ten normal people ("candidates") travel somewhere and have to complete tasks to earn money for the group. One of them is the mole, who tries to make the tasks fail without people noticing that they are the mole. At the end of each episode, the candidate who knows least about the mole's identity is eliminated. As a viewer [...] ---Outline:(00:49) Concept of the TV show(03:39) My attempt at Bayesianism(06:08) My results(08:44) Wanting to do better The original text contained 6 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: May 26th, 2026 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wzjocDBKQoseCyJmH/finding-the-mole-bayesianism-is-hard --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.