Finding the Substance Amid Geopolitical Signalling

Look around the world today; there are few certainties. The global order is in a state of flux. And that means that every country is rethinking old assumptions, and even old partnerships. There’s a lot of jockeying for wriggle room; a lot of signalling to partners and rivals. And often in the media environment that we live in today, signals get taken to mean substantive or even structural shifts. Alas, sometimes a signal is simply that; a signal.So what should we pay attention to if we want to understand the trajectory of countries and the international system? Interests, of course. But what else? What are the structural factors that students and watchers of International Relations should study?To understand these dynamics better, in this episode of The Great Power Show, I speak to Stephen Nagy, Professor of Politics and International Studies International Christian University in Tokyo. Stephen is a critic of the snapshot analysis that permeates the media environment. He contends that instead of photo-ops and rhetoric, one should focus on structural factors like budgetary allocations and force posture. In other words, it’s not the stated but the revealed preference that matters in geopolitics.Our conversation also focussed on the nature of US-China competition. More importantly, what is the Trump administration’s America First agenda, and how does it tie in with this great power competition? And of course, how are Japan and other countries in East Asia contending with these turbulent times?As always, I hope you enjoy the discussion. Please like, share, subscribe and rate the episode; and if you’d like to support the show or the work I do, don’t hesitate to reach out to me.Read Prof. Nagy’s piece in Japan Times: International relations analysis needs to grow upAbout: The Great Power Show is a bi-weekly podcast featuring candid conversations and thought-provoking interviews with leading scholars, thinkers and practitioners on the geopolitical and geo-economic changes shaping our world.