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Welcome to The Low Post Podcast. The NBA playoffs start in two days. We know six of the eight series after tomorrow's final two play-in games. We will know all eight, but we can't wait that long.
You need time to listen and digest and prep. So in the name of the basketball gods, we call upon what is now an annual tradition. It used to be the eight by eight, eight minutes apiece for eight first-round series podcasts. It's now, I don't know, the ten by six and a couple minutes on the one eight series.
We don't know, and we always do it because we need to be smart. We need to get smarter. We need to know the X's and O's, the themes of True Hoop. The author of basketball is Jazz David Thorpe.
How are you? Zach, I'm well. Thank you for asking. And I just have to say, I always look forward to your podcast so much.
Sometimes we get blessed again two in a week, and I do my morning walk, which I've been doing for a long time now. And I personally always do is to check and see if you drop something. And all this week, the habit is, oh, I wonder who's next to talk to you about the playoffs. And I just forget that it tends to be me.
And I'm always so disappointed that I'm the one that has the podcast. It's not going to listen to Kirk and KP or whomever, but we're going to do our best to get smarter with each other, for sure. As always, I have ordered these series as the dictator of this podcast in my level of interest in them, starting with the most interesting to the least interesting of the six. We will mention, as an aside, the one eight possibilities later, but we obviously don't know them.
I have already revealed to you that my most exciting first round series, and I would argue there are four candidates for this spot. You can pick any of the four, and then there are two that are kind of like, we'll get to them. So we'll give them their due. Number one on my list, just an irresistible matchup.
So irresistible that it veered into the cartoonish earlier this year during the Shannon Sharp, Dylan Brooks, brouhaha, the Los Angeles Lakers, the number seven seed going to the Memphis Grizzlies, the number two seed. And it's not just irresistible because of the sort of the aging lion of LeBron James against the young, up-and-coming, audacious Memphis Grizzlies and all the Shannon Sharp nonsense and all that. The Grizzlies, this version of them, I mean, I think they put themselves on the national map with a game in Los Angeles when that was the game when Kyle Anderson, back when he was a member of the Memphis Grizzlies, talked you-know-what to LeBron, which nobody does. And that was the same game when John Morant did the Superman two-handed block on Avery Bradley, I believe, on the backboard in transition.
Everyone was like, oh my God, this team is not messing around. And if, if, if Stephen Adams or Brandon Clark, if just one of them were healthy, I don't even need both, I would be pretty aggressively all-in on Memphis to win this series, despite the fact that I think most of the media is probably going to pick the Lakers, who are 19-8 in their last 27 games. They've been a very, very good team now for a significant sample size. But I like a lot of what that version of Memphis can still bring in this series, but if you just give them one more big, I would like their combination of sort of brutishness.
And the Lakers, although they played fast this year, they were a really bad transition defense team, and they don't like these young, energetic, flying-around, athletic teams who just don't want to be in-your-face, create chaos, get out and transition. And that's the Grizzlies to a tee, and even in the half-court, you got Desmond Bain running around, just flying around, and I think D'Angelo Russell will be guarding Desmond Bain for good chunks of the series, and that's a good way to punish D'Angelo Russell, just run his ass around. I like a lot of what Memphis has in this series. I don't know who I'm going to pick, but if they had one of those guys, I think I'd pick them.
As of now, I'm still undecided. What interests you about this matchup, Coach? Well, you did a pretty good job of summarizing a lot of my thoughts. It is an old versus young, really athletic versus super skilled and crafty, certainly in the best players for the Lakers.
They have a lot of skilled guys. The Lakers have built a heck of a team. There's a lot of talent on that team, and I agree with you totally, especially if Adams played. LeBron is past the age now where he likes to crack back and block out the other team's big.
When AD goes to block a shot, he ain't messing around with that. Adams would crush them if that was the case. It wouldn't be as hard now without him, but what interests me the most, which I think is the biggest story, I alluded to you in a text earlier, I have to always remind myself that in the world of physics, you have to think of the biggest forces that affect us first. I do this all the time as a teacher.
Gravity always wins. The gravity in this series, in my opinion, is Tarvin Ham. I thought he was bad all season. It doesn't mean he didn't do some good things, and they're playing pretty well.
I know he's a rookie coach, and coaches can always get better, and often do. It's just like anything else. But I think his knee-jerk reaction, and he's not the only one in the playoffs that does this, is to keep going back to his stars. And that's exactly what Memphis needs.
Even if they drop a game of the first two, and even 2-2 after four, Dylan Brooks wears people out. He is a very physical defender. Jaron Jackson, we know he can do defensively. I think he's the defensive player of the year.
LeBron James was exhausted at the end of that playing game. That's why he kept throwing the ball to the bad guys and making one terrible, terrible play after another. Zach, tired players make mental mistakes constantly. And I think this is a youth versus age and experience battle, and I think youth is heavily favored, and they're certainly that extra guy.
I think they're going to wear that team down. I don't trust Arvin to just play what I think is a deep bench, and give those guys a break. We're going to see 38-plus minutes every game from those two stars, and I think the Grizzlies can wear them down. I think the Grizzlies can definitely win the series.
Like I said, if they had just one of those two bigs, and particularly Adams, who is just a one-man offensive rebounding team. I mean, by himself, he makes you an elite offensive rebounding team. Without them, they're just kind of average. Look, we talked about this over text.
There's one obvious theme here that should concern the Grizzlies and concerns me picking the Grizzlies. Look, Dylan Brooks is going to guard LeBron. He'll be the primary assignment on LeBron. Jaron Jackson can guard Anthony Davis, and when he does guard Anthony Davis, that's a pick and roll you can actually switch without that much pain.
Like, yes, AD will hurt Dylan Brooks in the post, but Dylan Brooks is like a cinder block, You're not going to move him. He's going to make you earn it. You've got to help him load a little bit, but that's not a painful switch. And step one to beating the Lakers is if you can switch that two-man game, you've got a shot.
Now, I bet they'll start games with Tillman at center and guarding Anthony Davis so Jaron Jackson can roam off of Vanderbilt. That both protects Jaron Jackson from the big issue that we're about to talk about, which is fouls. Every one of these games with like an 8-0 advantage just from free throws, and without Clark and without Adams, and by the way, Jaron Jackson Jr. was often their second choice on LeBron when Dylan Brooks rested during the regular season.
I just don't know that they can survive foul trouble to one or both of those guys, and foul trouble to both of them in the same game is going to be a catastrophe, and that's the obvious spotlight issue in this series. It's the one that Grizzlies fans are going to be looking for because they're going to cry conspiracy as soon as the officiating starts to build against them. The Lakers are really good at forcing the issue. I think the Grizzlies bring some tools on defense to this series that can really, really wear the Lakers, not wear them down, but make it harder for the Lakers to score even when they have the floor spread, even when they take Vanderbilt off the floor, and they just put shooting around LeBron and AD.
I think the Grizzlies have some pretty powerful defensive answers to that. I just worry that fouls are going to limit their ability to really, really deploy those for as many minutes as they need to. Well, I think you kind of buried, just because of all those smart things you said, I think you kind of buried what maybe is the biggest story connecting to the foul issue, and that is the ability to switch those screens, not just with Triple J and Brook, but also with Tillman. Tillman's lighter on his feet, and I think people realize he defends AD up out pretty well.
They might even let him try LeBron, and you have to remember this. When the Lakers had Thomas Bryant, poised to have the greatest offensive season, you know, minutes, a part of it. It was crazy, and that was LeBron pick and roll. He can't play in Denver.
They have no LeBron on their team. No one knows how to pass the ball pick and roll for them, except for Jokic, who never plays what Thomas says. The Lakers aren't going to have that advantage if Memphis can switch it and not foul. And so, to me, the first step in fixing a problem is absolutely knowing that it's there and addressing it.
And I think Taylor Jenkins is absolutely elite as a coach, maybe top five in the world for professional athletes. There's no question. It's in big red ink all over the locker room. We can not foul.
As somebody teaches the game for a living, you can help guys not foul. Challenge their discipline, right? It's not about toughness here. It's about the discipline of make them make those shots over you.
Don't reach. Don't grab. And if they beat you, they beat you. Save that foul later on.
Give them the two points. And help is coming anyway. They'll do it because part of Memphis' issue is they're so full of energy. They're so full of testosterone, and that is their disadvantage.
But I think if they can go 2-2 after four, I think you'll see a much more fatigued Laker team, and you'll see them struggling fourth quarters in Memphis and win. What Jaron Jackson Jr. really needs to do, and he's going to, like I said, he's going to split time between Rover and guarding A. For sure, yeah.
And they'll even make him a Rover when the Lakers are small and A.D. They'll stick him on Troy Brown Jr. Or what worries me for Memphis is this is the 22nd rated half-court offense in the league against a really, really great defensive team, a very good defensive team that has a lot of answers for what Memphis likes to do, namely Anthony Davis on Jaron Jackson Jr., which is a tough matchup for anybody. I thought A.D.
was as good defensively as anyone in the league this year, other than maybe Jaron Jackson Jr. And on Morant, this team, a feather in Darvin, Ham's cap, I would say, has been one of the more aggressive teams going under screens on Morant, and they'll probably open with Austin Reeves on them, I would guess. They've used Vanderbilt on them, too. At times, one degree, they only have one big on the floor.
We'll see if we see that. And daring Morant to beat them with jump shots and long floaters. And Morant is good enough to beat you in some games just with floaters. He will make enough floaters to punish that defense, and the Lakers will adjust, and they can adjust.
But I worry a little bit about Memphis scoring enough in a series that becomes a complete slowdown half-court rock fight. And I think they're going to need to get a requisite amount of transition points, off turnovers, whatever, to win this series. And the Lakers do not turn the ball over a lot on offenses most LeBron teams tend to to take care of the ball. That's how Memphis gets enough points in the half-court in this series is a big plot line to me.
Yeah, I mean, they've got obviously some great shooters that are shooting really well. Luke doesn't miss these days. But I think what you're saying goes through what I was suggesting about fatigue factor. Well, that's on Memphis to race.
And that's on Memphis to push on makes and misses. Just cross the timeline three seconds upon getting possession. That millisecond you get possession, you're gone. Every, I would stress that with Tyus, who doesn't like to run as much as Ja.
Guys, we are racing all the time. The Lakers started the season racing. They have slowed down considerably. I mean, they're still, I think, 14th or 15th, last 15 games in base.
But they're not top five. They were really racing early. They need to focus on that, Memphis does, and get into that age. Make those two superstars run, not just run, race.
You have to have to play with urgency a ton. And here's the thing, Zach. Maybe it's regency bias, but I watched that Minnesota game. If those were high school players making some of the passes the Lakers made late, they would be benched.
Like, this is still that team. They've been playing so much better. Really, after their first one-night start, they've been one of the better teams, even with their old team. And then, of course, there's new, I think, a new and improved team.
Russell not playing was kind of weird. I just think he's going to go with the old group that he had before the trade deadline a lot, which is fine. And I think Memphis can wear those guys down. I think those first, you know, obviously Memphis has to get one or two at home.
It goes without saying. If they get two, if they get two in a row, I think they're going to cruise in the series. I wouldn't be surprised if the Lakers win one. They've been a great home team all year.
I think they've been five and six at home. You mentioned flying. I think it's just imperative, Bain and Kennard. And it'll be interesting to see how often they play the two of them together with Ryan, how often they're missing that.
They need to run and run and run in the half court. And why I say interesting how much they play together is, fundamentally, the Lakers, with a 6'8", greatest of all time, maybe, ball-handling, apex predator, are just more equipped to hunt in the postseason and play matchup ball than the Grizzlies are. And he's going to hunt Ja, he's going to hunt Bain, he's going to hunt Kennard, and we'll see how they do it and what form that takes. The Grizzlies aren't quite built to do that in the same way with an on-ball creator, the way that LeBron can do it.
So that's part of what interests me. It sounds like you're picking Memphis. Yeah, I just want to touch on something you said. If I see LeBron getting downhill a ton, that's a problem that I'm not expecting.
I think LeBron is taking more jumpers than ever in this series. I think in this sort of game, his fatigue certainly mattered. Yeah, I got Memphis in six right now, and I think it'd be Memphis in four or five if they had Steven. But they don't.
And it's Lakers still in the series, but I think Memphis has a big advantage. I'm going to wait until the last minute to submit my official pick on this. I want to think about it a little more and watch a little more film, but I'm leaning Memphis in seven. I think it's a coin flip series.
It can go either way, and I just would lean to who has game seven at home. I think it's going to be a great series. Can we move on to my second most anticipated series? Yes.
The I-80 series. The Sacramento Kings. Welcome back to the party. It has been a long, long time.
And their head coach, Mike Brown, who spent so many years under Steve Kerr, facing the Golden State Warriors. This is a three versus six seed. The Kings crowd is going to be bananas. They have home court, obviously.
And there's going to be a big chip on their shoulder because everyone's going to pick the Warriors. Everyone's going to choose the championship pedigree. Andrew Wiggins coming back. We know what this team can do.
I've said all year, the data, just no matter how you parse it, says when this Warriors team is whole, which they have not been for a long time, when they can start their starting five, when they can have a bench that starts with Poole, DiVincenzo, and Kuminga, this is a really, really good team sort of hiding in plain sight. Hiding. They won the championship last year. And even though this is a three-six series, in net rating, they're separated by less than a point.
Like, there's just not a lot of evidence that the Kings are miles better than the Warriors. Plus 2.6 per 100 possessions for the Kings, plus 1.7 for the Warriors, who are now whole with Andrew Wiggins back. And here's big picture how I feel. I'm picking the Warriors in six.
And I think at full throttle and full rotation, whole rotation, both of these offenses can be very, very good. We know what the Kings are. They're the best offense in the NBA. I think the Warriors, with stakes, with all their guys, and good health, are much better than whatever their offensive rating is, which I think is 10th in the league.
I think they're better than that. And I just fundamentally think the Warriors, with Draymond Green and Andrew Wiggins and Kevon Looney, have more answers on defense than the Kings do, built around De'Aaron Fox and De'Aaron Sabonis up the middle, who are, they work really hard. They both improve defensively. I just, the Warriors, when you give them a so-so point guard and a, I don't even think De'Aaron is slow-footed, but just kind of a big center.
I just, I don't know what answers they have defensively to stop the Warriors. So that's my big picture analysis of why I'm going to pick the Warriors. I have no idea who you're picking. I'm going in cold here.
You literally, you literally took exactly what I had in my first item, which is when the Warriors are fully healthy, and they're not fully because Wiggins hasn't really played, so we have no idea what he looks like. But you know what I mean. If the Kings have the best offense in the league, Golden State's 1A, when they're cooking, which we expect them to cook now, and they're going to be a much better defensive team. The ultimate challenge for Sacramento is what to do with Sabonis against this team.
I think they're fourth, last 15, and the fourth, the post-All-Star break, and three-pointers give it up. Obviously Golden State takes the most in the league at 43.5, the last post-All-Star game anyway. I never really look at the full year, because I don't care what happened in basically October through December. Sabonis has to be up at the point of attack in ball screens.
He's got to be at the level of the screen. He's active. What you're describing is Sabonis at the level of the screen. This is 10 years now of the Warriors just destroying big centers who have to play that way.
Even better defenses. Right. They destroyed better defenses than what Sacramento does at that. You put the Kings in rotation.
They've got some slow guys. It's not a strength of theirs. So the alternative would be, and this is what I actually think Mike should do, Mike Brown should do. I think who is my co-coach of the year, not that it matters, but I wouldn't do it.
But what you just said, I wouldn't do it. I would occasionally do it or even blitz, because as you know, the Warriors are prone to just forgetting this is a real game, not a privilege. I'm going to throw the ball over. Right?
So pick your spots. Trap them hard, especially Steph or Jordan. I drop Sabonis back. I do the same thing the Celtics did in the first four games of the finals.
Chase over the top. Curry might murder you. I get that. And prevent all that.
Right. Right. Yeah. Pray our guys get over the screen intact.
Don't foul him and hope he misses. That's what I would do. So at least you're not giving a bunch of layups. And you can always adjust later on, but that's the problem.
And this is why we both have bigger leading Golden State heavily. That isn't a strategy. It's hoping. And that's never something...
Normally, I can even talk when we talk about Brooklyn, Philadelphia. I have a strategy for Brooklyn. I don't know if it'll work, but I have one that I think can work. I don't think anything works in this series.
And I'll say something else. Remember this, and I know you know this, I don't like to talk about the players I hope until they're mostly after they're retired. There are these exceptions. The last time the Kings won their first playoff game in a series when Kevin Martin had a crazy shot after the Genova turnover.
Obviously, I had Kevin since he was in college. That's a long time ago. It sounds like it's going to be an amazing crowd. I actually love Sacramento and the Kings crowd and everything.
But that works against you in the late third quarter, early fourth, you're down two, up one, the pressure. You just know we have to take care of business to get this team at our place because they are so tough at their place and typically still bad on the road. That pressure can work against you. A lot of these guys have never faced it.
It's a concern of mine. I guess I should have mentioned this earlier. I'm not quite throwing it out, but I just am almost throwing out the fact that the Warriors are going to win a road game this year. I mean, obviously, they're going to have to win a road game to win the series in any series maybe that they play.
I just am going to just say the playoffs are here. They don't have to really travel much to these games. These are very low-stress travel games for them. That's not to say I'm discounting the Kings home court advantage.
I think it's a real home court advantage. Part of the reason I think it'll be a long series. I'm not going to sit here and say, well, the Warriors are home court disadvantage. They were whatever and a million on the road this year.
They're in huge serious trouble just because of this fundamental thing. I think they'll be a normal playoff road team. Maybe not what they've been in the past where they win a road game every goddamn series. But we'll see.
And to your point, if you watch the regular season games and read into them what you will, the Kings really didn't try a lot of stuff on defense. They would bring Sabonis up to the level and the Warriors would be like, cool, bing, bing, bing, bing, bing. And they scored at a decent rate, not a great rate, but a decent rate against the Kings. I think that's indicative of they just don't have that much stuff to try.
There's just not that as enough. There's not many variations you can play with Sabonis and Fox. A couple of things they did flash, and I mean flash, is all out blitz. We'll see how that works.
Trying Sabonis on Wiggins even, or whoever is sort of maybe the least likely to handle the ball, screen, or run around the screen for a three like Klay Thompson. Now there's an easy fix for that. You just bring Wiggins into the pick and roll. But I think we might see them move Sabonis around here and there.
And they even played around with his own a little bit in bits and pieces against the Warriors and against other teams. And I think even if all of those things are on their own, not very appealing ways to stop or limit the Warriors, I think they're going to try a lot of different stuff just to try it. Just to try it. You can't let them get in a rhythm of, okay, Curry, Green, pick and roll.
Boom, boom, boom. You just can't let them get in a rhythm like that. Yeah, I love your idea of Sabonis on Wiggins. I thought about that because it's just really hard to miss as much time as Andrews missed and feel that you have any kind of touch and rhythm.
I don't know what he's been doing day to day. I know one thing. He's not been playing for the Warriors. And there is a tax for that.
There's a cost to that. And so try something different. Put Sabonis on him. That might even get him to press a little bit more.
And then, listen, Sacramento's not part of blanks here. They're amazing offenses. We all know why. Sabonis, I think, has more offensive rebounds against the Warriors than any other team.
He crushes him on the glass. I think he's got to be careful not getting off the fouls himself. Raymond will get his head right in Sabonis' elbow area and catch up. Sabonis is very, very aggressive with those things.
We'll see how the refs call it. I'm curious to see how much they penalize him for the kind of elbow stuff he throws. It's really part of his natural game. I'm a huge Fox fan.
I'm worried. Herter and Monk have been so up and down, not just game-to-game, but over a month. There's also things as a streak shooter because everyone's a streak shooter. That's how shooting goes.
I teach it every day. I know what streaks look like. They all have streaks. The better ones have better main streaks and shorter misstreaks.
But they all have streaks. But Monk and Herter have some, their great shooters, have some really terrible months like in the 20s. But the Kings can't survive with that. They've got to be high-level shooting.
If they do that, I think Monk, I looked it up, Monk is 41% of their wins, 27% of their losses. That's not nothing. They need that kind of thing to at least put some pressure on Golden State to continue to execute, especially when Andrew's in. Because like I said, they are not going to be in rhythm.
It's naive to think you can miss all this time and they're right back to the team we saw in June. It's not going to be the case. And by the way, they weren't so good to start the year with him. They weren't nearly that team.
So that's why I think it can go six. I don't see it going past that though. Well, if it gets to seven, that crowd then becomes a factor and that gets to be a lot of fun. Absolutely true.
Yes, the Kings have an incredible offense. I think that offense will sustain to some level in the playoffs. I don't think they're just going to fall apart because it's the playoffs people playing the half court. They're going to run.
They're going to be themselves. And to win this series, you nailed one thing. They need some bonus to go bananas on the offensive glass. And they need to win the free throw game by a lot.
And in these matchups, they have actually put him on Fox as the primary defender. Put Curry over on Keegan Murray. So we're going to hide you over on Keegan Murray. We don't think he's going to be a threat.
And he has got to be a threat using some bonus for handoffs. Even like, feed him a little post-off out of a timeout if they're going to try to hide Curry on him. He can actually do that. But they put Draymond on Fox and they've switched to Fox-Sabonis pick and roll.
Even if it means Looney is guarding Fox late in the shot. They've been okay with that. That switch obviously becomes easier when Draymond's at center and they're more wingy and stuff like that. But you'll see Klay on Fox.
You'll see Wiggins on Fox and you'll see a lot of different kind of defensive strategies like that. And that's given the Kings some issues scoring. The Kings did not score well against the Warriors this year. The other thing on Murray, I mentioned hiding Steph on him.
Yeah, man, rookie in the playoffs is tough. It's tough. And you mentioned Monk and Herter and those guys are key. The kind of semi-forgotten man for the Kings this year has been Davion Mitchell.
And I wonder if they're looking for defensive answers and a guy that can just hound Curry. If we see a little more Davion Mitchell and a little more of the Mitchell, Fox, Herter, Barnes, Sabonis lineup where Keegan Murray plays a little bit less and Mitchell plays a little bit more. I like the look and feel of that in theory against the Warriors. It's just something I'm looking for.
I think the Kings have some cards to play in this series. I just, I trust the Warriors. I trust their history and their pedigree and their offense against this specific defense. But it could be a fun series in a long one.
Yeah, I see why you like it so much. On the Mitchell thing, I put a note in there. When he's with the starters instead of Fox, they're plus something. They're good.
He's not a great year offensive, not a good year offensive, but he's the plus player defensively. He's good with those starters. And I talked to NBA players who have named him as the guy to give them the most trouble in terms of just making them uncomfortable. And so he's the guy that needs to spend some time on Curry because Fox won't be able to make him uncomfortable.
So yeah, they've got some bowls to fire. And your point on Murray, it's hard to be good in the regular season for a rookie. In fact, almost impossible. It's basically impossible for the postseason, especially when his role is going to be.
And you also mentioned Looney, which I'm really glad about because we can't forget what he did last year. So when I say Sabonis murders him on the glass and needs to, Devon has a chance to be an unbelievable. Yeah, he might get 15, 17 defensive rebounds in some games because that's his number one focus. Don't give this guy a second shot.
So Looney's great at missing a shot and getting his own rebound because you're still kind of in the air. Looney doesn't jump either. So he's in a great position to do it. Once he shoots over you, take him out, go and get a second shot.
If they can solve that problem and the turnover problem, if they can do those two things, then all of a sudden is the foul issue. And that's, again, discipline. Golden State just has more weapons. But they've been so bad on the road.
If it comes back that they go 0-2 to start, we got a hell of a series. Oh man, that would be drama. Hey, sports fans. The ESPN app has all of ESPN all in one place.
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Sign up for Activate now. Series number three on my exciting rankings. And again, you can rank these first anywhere you want. This is my personal order.
The Donovan Mitchell Bowl. The fourth seeded Cleveland Cavaliers against the fifth seeded New York Knicks who have the most implausible, improbable, I still don't even understand it, top five offense in the history of the NBA. A top five offense that can't shoot from anywhere. I don't even know how you do that.
I mean, I know how you do that. You get a lot of offensive rebounds and a lot of free throws and you never turn the ball over. I get it. I just didn't know it was possible to bend the math quite that dramatically where you can't shoot and you're still amazing on offense.
I guess the Cleveland Cavaliers who were the number one defense for almost wire to wire, at least the top three defense wire to wire with those two big monsters in the middle and those two superstar guards up top. The biggest wild card in this series, Coach, as we know, is that Julius Randall's status is uncertain after that ankle sprain late in the season. The latest reports from the Knicks have been that he's doing parts of practice but not the contact parts. I don't know what the hell that means.
But I do know this. I do know this. The Knicks can finagle their way to free throws and offensive rebounds against this team. The Cavs, as good as they are defensively, we're 20th in defensive rebound and their foul rate is just so-so.
And I actually think the other identity the Knicks take on without Randall, which is kind of this go-go, flying around, more passing, more pace, whether it's Obi Toppin at the four or Josh Hart at the four, I think that can kind of hit Cleveland as a surprise punch early in the series. The Knicks are good in that alignment over a longer series, just like in the regular season when a star player gets hurt, for like four or five games a team can find this new identity and it works and you're like, wow, maybe they don't need this guy as much as we thought. And then it kind of hits you like, actually you just need the shot making and the defensive attention this guy draws and the double teams and the kickouts and all that. Eventually they're going to need Julius Randall, good Julius Randall, to win the series.
But if it's two or three games without him, I think that other version of the Knicks can actually hold down the fort and win, whether it's one of two, one of three, keep the series alive, but eventually I think they'll need Julius Randall's pure talent and shot making. I think this is going to be a long series either way. If Randall were healthy from the jump, I would give the Knicks a pretty damn good shot. I would probably pick Cleveland in seven regardless, but that's going to be my official pick, Cavs in seven, because, I mean, the Cavs are awesome.
The Cavs are just a really good team and I'm pure talent. I think they're a little better, but I like this matchup. I do too. That's my prediction.
I said it on my pod earlier, Cavs in seven, so we're right on it. Pretty much all these are the same. The Randall piece isn't just important for all those things you said. It's also kind of the anecdote for Evan Mobley right now.
It's shocking to me that Cleveland's defensive rebounding is so bad, especially post-All-Star. Some metrics have them as last in the league. Now, they're not last in second-shot points because they beat you up really well. Oh, yeah.
They got those arms up. They say, good luck. It's fine. Finish over this.
Right, exactly. But that goes to something you were saying. When you give up second chance, when you give up second shots, you give up fouls. And that's just a way for New York, like you said, concoct their way to the free throw line.
It's enable their way to get more points that way. Now, it's also something Cleveland's got to be attentive of. They've got to be thinking, you know why they bring them up a little higher? They bring them up a little higher and this is the issue the Cavs are going to face every single opponent.
They bring them up a little higher because A, you have to and B, what that means is the help's got to come in a little earlier and a little more aggressively behind him and we don't really care if Isaac Okoro and Lamar Stevens and even Dean Wade get open threes or we're going to force Evan Mobley and Jared Allen to tic-tac-toe their way to buckets and sometimes they will. But that's going to be the Knicks strategy and pretty much everyone's strategy against Cleveland is funneling as many shots to those guys from three-point range as possible. Yeah, exactly. So, Mitchell Robinson late in the year that was against the Pacers but he was a crazy shot blocker.
A monster on the glass. I think it's a real issue if Donovan overpenetrates. We've seen this so far in the playing game a few games the Miami game in particular where they just kept driving all the way to the rim and big bodies were there and they kept missing and missing and it's not an accident. It's hard to score against big bodies.
Cleveland takes it there all the time of course but New York's got Mitchell Robinson back there so that makes a difference. You hit it. It was my number two thing after that point and the rebounding is who's Cleveland going to play in that fifth spot and can they make shots because they're going to have to make shots. They want Okoro for obvious defensive purposes I think especially on Brunson who's just a magnificent player and he is their version of Donovan Mitchell playoff wise.
He was so good in some of the spots last year. I can't wait to see the real Donovan Mitchell that we saw in Utah especially the bubble version where he's so amazing. Jalen Brunson can't wait to see last year's version of Donovan Mitchell. Yeah, right.
He went out the door I think last year. Okoro, Levert is the answer offensively but then you pay the price defensively to some degree. He isn't a set this year defensively but he ain't a world. But you know what?
The playoffs, I think he's in year three. He's young. I really think he's like 21 as that third year player. He might grow up a little bit.
This is what happens. When you suddenly start showing some signs and speaking of that let's see where RJ is. RJ is going to get a chance to bully some guys. Let's see how he does.
He'll try to get to his left hand hook in the paint. He's got to shoot well from three. It's not something that's automatic. You don't feel necessarily confident but this is when you start building your value as a player of I don't just have a lot of good games in the regular season.
You can count on me in the postseason. If they do those things which I think they will to some degree I think it's a semi-game series as long as we get Randall back in the regular season they like that guard, guard, pick and roll action to get the matchups the way they want. As you said, the Knicks will try to hide him on Okoro and other places. And the Knicks have generally had Quentin Grimes on Mitchell and then Josh Hart they liked on Mitchell the last time they played.
They've tried RJ Barrett on Garland because again they want to hide Brunson elsewhere on defense and that's a tough matchup for RJ Barrett. And if your best two defenders on Mitchell are Grimes and Hart and Grimes can also really defend Garland too and quickly who's my choice for six men of the year has to play a lot. I wonder if RJ is going to get squeezed a little bit minutes wise in the series if he's not making shots. Less so without Randall the series is going to be a big manual quickly series so I'm interested in that and when the Knicks have the ball a lot of what they're going to do other than free throws and offense they're going to go with Garland the same way.
If you watch the film they've hunted Darius Garland and the Cavs have tried to hedge and keep him away from Jalen Brunson and the Knicks have to pass out of that. And I agree with you on Randall like the one it's not even a weakness but the one way left to attack Evan Mobley you better enjoy it while you can because it's going to go away soon is to get a guy like Randall Bancaro did this to him just kind of bulldoze him get your shoulder into him and move him backwards and just hit a shot over him or help us to come to the point that the Cavs will actually invert the matchups a lot against the Knicks who put Jared Allen on Randall and Mobley on their centers. That's why I think they need Randall ultimately to get a little more of that but I think this is fun I think the strategy is fun I think the minutes are fun and someone's got to make shots with the Cavs whether it's Dean Wade or I still think Jetty Osmond is like a little bit of an X factor for them. I love that.
I've been a Jetty fan for years and I'm glad you mentioned quickly because he's in my notes it's easy to be better as a team when you've got a guy like that coming off the bench. I know he started some and he's capable of having huge games and his quickness his energy matters the swag he has matters when Donovan Mitchell was right he is such a terrific scorer and playmaker I really love that about Donovan I don't think he's a selfish player at all and you've got to combat that with some serious games Jalen's got it you can't just that Jalen, though, because Darius can really play. I think Emmanuel really solves the problem. And if RJ can't shoot, I think you're right.
Early on, RJ doesn't get his chances because even if Randle plays, you would think, well, most coaches would monitor his minutes. I'm not sure Tom will. I'm not sure Coach David will. And that's the thing to look at, too, is is he playing, but it looks like he's going to wear down.
Ankle injuries are so prone to return ones coming up. Every time you see him like someone's foot, it turns again. We have to really watch that because I think Cleveland rolls in the series without a healthy Randle after two games. They've got to get him at that point.
They're going to run out of options. But within there, I see the series going seven. And if he comes back, last thing, the Cavs were guilty of this a little bit. Don't overhelp on Julius Randle one-on-one.
For sure not, right. Especially if it's Jared Allen. The Knicks got some open threes because the Cavs kind of panic helped. Let Jared Allen deal with it.
Take away the threes. Series number four on my excitement level and boy, oh boy, would this be higher if Paul George were healthy because Paul George is just like Draymond Green, a guard, whoever you need him to guard guy. Could guard Chris Paul. Mostly his guard is Devin Booker.
Could guard Kevin Durant some. The whole gamut. The Phoenix Suns against the Los Angeles Clippers four versus five. The Suns are the Vegas favorites to win the West.
The Suns are currently my pick to win the West. This would be an all-out heavyweight fight if and maybe when. I don't know. I mean, I don't know what to expect from Paul George.
My expectations in my head based on limited intel, let's say, is I'm going to be pleasantly surprised if Paul George comes back in like games five, six, seven of the series. I think maybe that's possible, but in my head, I'm like they got to figure out a way to win without Paul George and that's going to be very, very hard for them to do. Suns, Clippers, Russell Westbrook against Kevin Durant start Torrey Craig over Josh Akogi already from day one of the playoffs for matchup purposes. I don't think so.
I wouldn't shock you, but I don't think so. I actually don't think KD is going to open on Kawhi. I bet they'll try whoever's in there among Akogi and Craig. Wouldn't surprise me, coach, if we saw KD guard Russ and say, we're going to ignore you and we're going to rove and he's going to be a seven-foot menace all over the court.
And just last thing, it's incredible how much, incredible, we all know Durant changes whatever team he's on. He makes them miles better right away. We think of how he fits on offense. We even do think of how his size and rebounding their free throw rate has skyrocketed with Durant.
They're a bad defensive rebounding team. They've been much better with Durant. It's amazing how he's changed not just the scoring and the sort of fluidity of their team, but some of their what were really structural weaknesses have changed. And on paper, you would say the Clippers are all, they get to the line a lot, they don't foul a lot, they're going to pile up a free throw advantage.
That's one way they can make up for a talent deficit. It's just a totally different team even free throw rise with Durant on the floor. I just, without PG, they got some answers. I think they'll try Eric Gordon on Durant a little bit.
Some of the Pat Beverly just be annoying and get up and under him. They'll try Kawhi on him. They'll try Batum on him. I think this is a good Terrence Nann series because he can guard both Paul and Booker semi-credibly.
I think they got some tools. I just don't see a pathway without Paul George. I just don't. The Suns have been, even kind of playing not super telegenic inspiring basketball, they've been utterly dominant with their four best players on the court, and I think they have enough answers for the rest of their rotation.
I'm not sure I see a way the Clippers can win the series, and I say that as someone to pick the Clippers to make the finals before the season, Coach. I did, too. I had Milwaukee Clippers in the finals just like you did. Whatever, I've been wrong plenty of times before.
I've been wrong plenty of times going forward. Things change during the season. Before I forget, I'm glad you mentioned T-Man. He had better numbers against Phoenix than the team in the West.
I didn't know that. I think he played four games. So that's the thing. I think Gordon is going to spend some time on KD.
You have to get under him. You have to chase his dribble, get him uncomfortable. But the big picture problem, as I always talk about the biggest physical force first, the Clippers switchability in a lot of their positions has met his antidote with Phoenix because of Kevin Durant. It just doesn't matter.
No matter what you do, Book is great. They've got KD. He fixes everything. And it doesn't allow them to go through long stretches of misses because he's just, I mean, his season this year is historic for obvious reasons.
It's actually crazy. My All-NBA teams came out today. I'm going to reveal them later for people who don't have insider. I didn't have Durant on because of 47 games.
I mean, I heard Simmons say we should create some sort of special award for Durant. You look at his numbers. It's just crazy. Ridiculous.
Your jaw just drops onto the floor. This guy's shooting is just insane. And it might be, he's playing defense as well as he's ever played ever in his career. Yeah, he's really, I'm happy for him.
He's one of the best of all time. And players know it. I don't think players always know. I don't think they're always accurate because they think with their emotions and they're playing with their friends.
KD is exactly what all of us think he is. And he's the antidote to what the Clippers can do. And the other thing is the way to make Phoenix pay for how little Kevin Durant's played for them is you've got to get them uncomfortable. And then all of a sudden things can press a little bit in the game.
I don't know how they get them uncomfortable without Paul George. So the problem is by the time they get Paul George, maybe they can split games, but it'll be too late. They're going to be down 2-0 or whatever it's going to be. So that's why, because I really do think with Paul George, I say seven and I'm not sure who I'm picking seven.
I just don't think they're going to be in a position where it's 1-1 or 2-2 and all of a sudden Paul George comes back then. Then we don't know what he's going to be, what he's like that. The Clips, they've got to get Phoenix uncomfortable offensively, forcing turnovers, which they can do. What I like about Monty's teams are the guys like you said, Josh and Torrey, they're not going to be guarding very much.
We can agree on that. But they're going to be a little bit like the best players force the issue. The best role players like Torrey and Josh and those guys, they get it. They don't pick their spots to shoot, but they're going to move the ball to their big three, set screens, cut, which is a big thing for them as well, and I think make it tough on them.
I'm also curious about what happens if they go KD at five after Deontay gets to that. Oh, that's in my notes. What do they do with backup center? I mean, the Clippers have gone, it's crazy that we're talking about Phoenix going no center and putting Durant at center, which is something they haven't done.
The Clippers, that was like baked into their identity. It was a foundational part of who they were and they've completely abandoned it since acquiring Mason Plumman. I think it's actually been the right call, but that's in my notes. It's like, when will we see the Suns try that?
And it may not be until they really feel stress and they may not feel enough stress in this series. On Akogi and Craig, offensive rebounding is a big part of what they're going to bring. The Suns have used Akogi as a screener a little bit since getting Durant. Even if that means Aiton is down in the dunker spot, that's fine.
DeAndre Aiton can be effective from down there as an offensive rebounder. Just if you're going to hide your worst guy on Akogi or not guard him, we're going to bring him into the ball screen actually just a little bit, I think Akogi can do a little bit of that too. And you know, look, it's not breaking news to say if the Clippers are going to have any chance here, they're just going to need an apex Kawhi series from game one. There is no warm-up period for Kawhi.
They need the Kawhi to put the Mavs away with just epic masterpiece after epic masterpiece two seasons ago. They need him from the jump. They need him to beat up Chris Paul on mismatches and call his guy up for picks, beat him up. They need him to make jump shots over DeAndre Aiton if they have drop coverage.
They just need a monster Kawhi series. And that's why I think they're going to... I don't think they want to overtax him by saying you've also got to be our primary Durant defender and carry our offense. I just don't know if they could do that to Kawhi without Paul George to take off the load.
It's just they're going to need an epic series for him. There's no other way to say it. And it's just... I'll be very surprised with the Clippers.
My pick is going to be Suns and Six. Yeah, I'm in the same boat. I want to say two quick things. One is, I thought it was interesting and it's not so interesting.
A lineup that works... That's what's interesting is how well it works. Westbrook, Gordon, Batum, Kawhi, and Zee were plus 6.8 in five games. All right.
That's going to be their starting lineup. I think so. I should have mentioned that earlier. They've messed around with their lineups a little bit.
They've had guys in and out. Russ, Gordon, Kawhi, Batum, Zee is I would bet good money is going to be their starting five. Right. And they were really good in a few times.
They played 16 or so-called minutes. And then the other thing is what you said. When you say there's four series that all could have been the lead, this is why. It's KD versus Kawhi.
We have so many things going on. I think sometimes we can miss that. These are really, truly legendary generational players. And I'm reminded of something.
In fact, you and I were together when it happened down in Miami. Kawhi was young. He had not won anything at that point. And it was almost like Pop told him, I don't think you're better than LeBron, generally speaking, over the course of a season.
But let's see if you can be better than him in this series. Go at him. When you're open from three, I don't get there's only two seconds gone in the possession. Shoot it.
And I've gone back over the years and watched that tape of that series only in 15 where Kawhi just let LeBron have it and just came at him. Defensively came at LeBron and a fine series. But just first smoked him. And that's when we saw this Kawhi.
I just, I want Ty, I think Ty Lewis, one of our best coaches. He's super pragmatic. He's the opposite in most cases. Guys like Mike Malone and Darvin who are so afraid and so panicky.
I'd like to see him really challenge Kawhi. Yeah, yo, KD is maybe top three, top four of all time. There's people that say that. Let's find out if he's better than you.
Let's just go at him. If he's better than you, so be it. But let's see if he is. Go at him.
And if you're not getting tired, Paul will be coming eventually. But go at him these first couple games and tell your team, make them stop our guy. We think he's the best player with Chris Paul as a screener, kind of get more predatory matchup-wise like that. And as Kawhi, one thing they did occasionally against Phoenix in a regular season when Kawhi felt like he was getting rolling is what something the Rockets used to do for James Harden, which is set picks for him at half court and just get him going downhill hard and fast and into guys.
And that's an interesting tool. I'm going Suns in six. And my pick to make the finals being gone in the first round. Bye-bye.
Series number five. And now we get a big drop-off in the series power rankings. Almost by default. Default, as Homer Simpson once said, the two sweetest words in the English language.
Default. Boston, Atlanta. And I called the Hawks win over the Heat in the play-in series. And yet I still think that's a huge win for Boston.
Boston against small guards is death. And the Hawks have two of them in DeJounte Murray, although he fights like all hell. He's a very good offensive player. And Trae Young, who is just a blinking target at all times for opposing offenses.
And Boston just rained threes on the Hawks in two games and the two games that mattered between the teams. Boston was 41 of 88 on threes, just generating whatever they wanted, hunting Trae Young everywhere and passing out of that. And defensively, they're going to throw a lot of looks at Trae, just like the Clippers are going to throw a lot of looks at the Suns. But their favorite look was hiding, not hiding, but putting Horford over on DeAndre Hunter and guarding Clint Capella with wing players and switching Trae Young, Clint Capella two-man game as much as they could.
Obviously, they couldn't get to that matchup every time. And when Al was on Clint Capella, they also managed fine. I think they've just got so many defensive weapons to throw at Trae from Derek White, Marcus Smart, Jalen Brown, Jason Tatum, and that switching scheme that I just talked about, which the Hawks, the reason you do that is obvious. If you want to involve Al Horford in the pick-and-roll, if you want to involve Boston Center, you've got to put DeAndre Hunter in as a screener and have Capella or Okongwu hanging out in the dunker spot mucking up your spacing, that's fine.
You can make hay out of that, but it's not the way the Hawks are used to playing. I just think this is an absolutely terrible matchup for Atlanta, and I will give them a gentleman's sweep game and pick Boston in five. I just don't know what answers they have. And the interesting answer that they've had under Quinn Snyder that won them the play-in game is offensive rebounding.
They're number two in offensive rebounding since March 1st. It's been a clear point of emphasis. Boston's the number one defensive rebounding team in the league, not by a lot. They're number one and they're close to a pack of teams in three, four, five.
But I just think if they're diligent, they take that away and they make Trae Young's life hell. And the Hawks have a lot of talent. I just don't see a path for them to win a lot of games in the series. Yeah, nor do I.
I have three things down here for Atlanta to have any shot to make an defender series. I actually like the other series we don't talk about yet better. Atlanta boards versus Boston's defensive last work, as you said. We saw against Miami that athleticism and energy that can carry, that can travel, they can do that in game in, game out.
They have a lot of it. Okonwu and Capella in particular, but all their guys. Boston's lack of alertness would be a concern of mine and they'll take advantage of that. Atlanta, I mean, you know this.
I've probably heard this from one of your pods. One of the pods of the U.S. anyway, they went 70 plus days, one game within 500. They're finally on a win streak.
It's been since January since they've won more than a couple games in a row. And so they're capable of just playing badly no matter what Boston's doing. And then the third thing is, Tatum went through a stretch where he really was struggling, I thought. The shooter's shots were there, he wasn't making them.
He placed some point for them. Against Atlanta, he did a good job of running the offense against the Hawks a little bit to get him thinking about things and get him back to missing. And then that's one of the three things. The one question I have is, does Boston know, okay, let's get this thing done in four, let's try to get it done in four.
Because if they really lock in, which is a challenge all human beings have. And we see all the time, Bucs first Magic, we're almost guaranteed a game one win for Orlando or Toronto when they played the Magic back a few years ago. Lock in, find their shooters early. Boston, I think, can solve a lot of Atlanta's problems if they find those guys early.
That requires attention to detail. That requires respect for the opponent. I think Boston will have it. They should.
We know Atlanta did two years ago. I know that their coach will do the same. Quinn doesn't know the Celtics as well as he knows the West. This is not the Miami Heat.
You shouldn't be able to beat them up in the glass the same. I don't know about Robert Williams' knee. I just have no idea. I think it matters a little bit.