And now, The Low Post. Welcome to The Low Post podcast on a beautiful autumn morning in the boring suburban East Coast where it's time, for the first time in way too long, to say with conviction and enthusiasm the three most anticipated words in niche basketball podcasting. That's right. What up, Beck?
What up, Low? I'm conflicted right now whether to simply respond with my normal response to you, whatever that is. I don't have normal. Or given the subject of today's podcast, I feel like I should just say I'm well.
I don't know if that's trademarked, if I'm allowed. That's an homage. That is an homage because I love Kevin Arnavitz and I love Kevin Arnavitz doing this pod with you and I'm honored to be subbing in for him, although I am admittedly a little intimidated by it because they don't come any smarter than Kevin. But this brings up, this brings up another point and another Kevin, because Kevin Clark, who I ran to at a concert, The Gaslight Happened the other night, someone on Twitter in response to us said, did you hit Beck with a what up, Beck?
And Kevin Clark gave the response that a lot of people do, which is, no, no, that's trademarked. That's for Zach. This is the question I get most often, Zach, more than anything else. Not what was like covering Shaq and Kobe, not what's it like getting a podcast with Zach Lowe.
It's always just, can I say what up, Beck? Is that okay? And I said, this is not, I can't make that call. It's yours.
Like, are you charging five cents per mission? Is it trademarked? Is it okay for other people to do it? Is it infringing on your charge?
I don't know what to tell people. So you need to say, I am, I am an open source user. People can use what up, Beck. I'm not Pat Riley trying to trademark three, Pete.
Didn't Ohio State try or successfully accomplish the trademarking of the word the, like before a university or some such nonsense last year? Anyone can use it. So yes, it is time. It's Friday, September 3rd.
It's the last day of September. Fall is here. It's freaking cold. I had to wear a jacket walking my daughter to school today.
It sucks. But the NBA season is almost upon us. There was a preseason game in Japan this morning between the Washington Wizards and the Golden for the annual five most confusing teams podcast. My definition of confusing may be different from yours, Mr.
Listener and Ms. Listener. It is for me, not long-term. What are they up to?
What are they doing? Why did they do this trade? That made no sense. It's biggest variance between floor and ceiling.
Biggest uncertainty in terms of where and how they will finish this coming season if they are enjoying good health. I rank my five most confusing teams. I ask Mr. Beck to rank his five most confusing teams with one caveat.
Should we reveal the caveat, Mr. Beck? I'm a big fan of caveats and revealing of caveats, I guess. The corollaries.
Maybe we'll call it the eye and eagle corollary, which actually made up in my league pass rankings. The eye and eagle corollary in my league pass rankings is the Nets, when they were unwatchable, can only get eye and eagle bonus points for watchability like once every three years because it was unfair. Remember when they were just like slow and it was Joe Johnson and Brooke Lopez and they weren't even good and it was eye and eagle single-handedly would boost their league pass score. So the Nets corollary for this podcast is no Nets.
I'm sick of talking about the Nets. We know the Nets are confusing. We know everyone has trust issues with two of their three superstars and that the third one that we all actually trust has missed a lot of games with injury. We know that they're the on-paper champions of the NBA where no championships are actually decided.
We know. We're not talking about the Nets. I have no Nets thoughts to spill anymore. We're talking about the drama of the Nets, the insanity of the Nets, the wackiness of the Nets, the confusingness, the confusion of the Nets.
Yeah, I think we just need to ban that for a while. The Nets are banned. So Mr. Beck, I will let you open the floor as a tradition on this podcast.
Who is your most confusing team for the 2022-23 NBA season? And I have my list. I let the guests lead. I'm curious always how much overlap we're going to have.
If we get through two years and we haven't hit any of mine, I now retake control of the podcast. That's the rule. So who's your most confusing team? So I want to start with just two quick thoughts.
Actually, third. The first of which is, this is great because I'm easily confused. So me doing this podcast thematically makes a lot of sense. I'm easily confused.
The other thing is that as I was going through the standings, which is what we do, right? You just start kind of gazing over it. You think, well, who leaves that as confusing? I think this is a premise I'm going to throw for this edition of this confusion podcast, that this is a less confusing season than most.
I think there are some really clearly bad teams in each conference, and there's a lot of really good teams in both conferences. Now, confusion as to which tier they may be in as we create our tiers and who's a true contender and who's kind of a maybe and who's a play-in team. Okay, fine. But there's a lot of really solid teams.
And I think maybe as I was trying to find the most confusing, I was having a hard time to some extent, because I think it's a less confusing exercise than maybe it would be in some other years. I also have realized in doing this, and I know you, like I am, are big X-Files fan. I've realized that for me, this is kind of the Fox Mulder I want to believe exercise. Remember the poster of the UFO behind him in his desk?
Yeah, the coolest poster from the entire decade of the 90s. I remember that poster. Yeah, I think I remember it. Absolutely.
It says I want to believe. And that's what happens with these teams sometimes, and there are a couple in particular where it's like, I want to believe. It's preseason. We're all optimists.
Everybody's going to be great. And then you realize... I have a confession to make. I love the X-Files.
I have said before that I'm not sure... It was an uneven show. Everyone has their take about whether they like the standalone mystery episodes better than the larger conspiracy episodes. I was a Smoking Man episode guy.
And I have to admit, and I've said, there was almost nothing better in the history of television than a good Smoking Man episode. It was so exciting and just intense and well done and mysterious. It gives me goosebumps. Having said all that, I legitimately have no idea how the X-Files ended.
I stopped paying attention after Mulder left. I don't even remember really what the conspiracy was or what was going on with the aliens and the shadowy government figures. I don't know. Did they ever solve it?
Did they stop the conspiracy? Are we all sick? It's a shame because I love the show so much and I have no idea what happened. It's the only show like that in the history of TV for me.
I loved it and I lost it. I loved it and lost. I bet somewhere out there someone has done the rewatch podcast where they're going deep on it and analyzing it to death and could possibly even explain to you and I what did happen. I would bet that podcast is out there somewhere.
I'm not aware of it, but I'm betting there is. There was a movie, Zach, a movie that picked up where the series left off. There were two. There were at least two in 83 and then there were the new episodes that came out.
Yes. I can't remember any of it either, but it was awesome. The X-Files was great. And I know this.
They never should have made out. I think they did in the first movie or something. They never should have made out. That was strictly fan service.
I would have quit the show. I'd like to think. I always think of myself that I'd be very principled in these situations. Like, I will walk out of my paycheck for this.
But I'd like to think I would have quit the show the moment Chris Carter was like, you know what? We got to have a make out. Okay. So who's your most confusing team?
I'm done with the X-Files. I'm coming out guns blazing on the most confusing. You ready for this? I know who it's going to be.
I can already tell by your tone, but I'm preparing my notes to list for this team. I'm too excited. The Los Angeles Lakers. Yep.
I was right. Got Lakers notes out. Damn it. I'm too predictable.
So let me start with this. I'm not sure they're as bad as they appeared. I do think we've all been too quick to write them off. And I cannot get past the fact that when I look at LeBron James' stats from last season, the guy played like an MVP when he played.
It was only 56 games, but 30 points a game on 590 effective field goal percentage and 8 rebounds in 6 assists a game. And Anthony Davis, when he played, which was only 40 games, 23 and 10. I would make the case, and granted, it's an easier case to make five years ago, eight years ago, that a team with LeBron James and Anthony Davis producing at those levels with just a slapdash cast around them should at least be a middle-of-pack playoff team. I understand LeBron's older.
I understand Anthony Davis is always hurt. But your media company, Zach Lowe, has Anthony Davis still as the 20th ranked player in the NBA and LeBron at 6th. Anthony Davis just said he wants to be the number one option, so that's cool. I think he's said that a couple times.
I feel like this is at least the third consecutive season of we're running our offense through Anthony Davis. We're declaring it now. AD's excited. This time for sure.
This time for sure. Look, I remain unsold on Russell Westbrook as he fit with this team. I remain unsold on the supporting cast that they did not do all that much to upgrade. I think Darvin Hamm's going to be a really good head coach for them.
When I had Jeannie bust on the podcast, my podcast a few weeks ago, and I made an off-the-cover mark about you guys didn't really make any dramatic changes this summer, so I'm not sure what this means for you. And she immediately clapped back at me like, we hired Darvin Hamm. And so she viewed that as like, that's their big pickup of the summer. I think there is the outline here of a team that should exceed the ESPN projected win total of 42.
I think that there's a best-case scenario where they are ahead of and not behind Minnesota and New Orleans teams that, again, the ESPN projections have them behind. I don't think they have enough shooting. I don't think they have enough wing defense. But I still cannot get past, even in the year 2022, that a team with LeBron and Anthony Davis assuming health.
And by the way, it's September 30th, unless somebody's already hurt on the shelf or have nagging injuries that have been dogging them for the last however many months, years, I'm going to assume health on September 30th. So I'm assuming LeBron and Anthony Davis are going to play, I don't know, 70 plus games. And maybe that's foolish. And then I'm going to make this not prediction.
I'm going to say, here we go with Fox Mulder, I want to believe. I want to believe that after everything they've all gone through, all the things that have been said and done and weird stuff at Summer League and blah, blah, blah, that Russell Westbrook is coming back with a slightly different mindset than he had last season. And that maybe Darvin Hamm will get through to him in a way that Frank Vogel didn't. I'm not convinced.
I just think it's within the realm of possibility. Howard, Howard, you're adorable. That's adorable. That's so cute.
I'm just saying it's possible. The Lakers, I didn't know that we are, whatever projection system you're referring to, has them at 42 and 40. They're over under, their latest over under in Vegas is 45 and a half. One ahead of the Pelicans and three behind the Dallas, Minnesota, Memphis group at 48 and a half.
The Lakers were also on my top five most confusing teams for the exact reason that you just said. I just think a team with LeBron and Anthony Davis, and I said playing 120 combined, let's say they get 60 each. Let's dial it back because you can assume health. You can assume health because of lack of nagging injuries.
LeBron's almost 38 and three of his four seasons in Los Angeles have been disappointing and or injury riddled or both. And Anthony Davis is Anthony Davis. He gets injured a lot. Skinny 60 of each.
And I think that 45 win floor sounds right because those guys are that good. If they get relatively healthy seasons from those two and everything else just is okay, even some stuff goes wrong, some stuff goes right, it's just hard for me to see them being like a 500 team or worse because those guys are so good. I struggle with them with the ceiling. I just don't know with the supporting cast that the notion of this is if you're picking them as a confusing team, the implication is that they can go far one way or another off that projection.
I could see them with bad health going far lower. I just am not sure I could see them getting to like 50 with this team. Let's go over the rotation. Currently, to my best knowledge, the starting five is projected to be a camp just started.
Kendrick Nunn, Russell Westbrook, LeBron, AD, Damian Jones. It's okay. It's just okay. Like, I've already said I'm bringing Russ off the bench day one.
I would say if the Russ experiment is going badly in the starting five, they're going to get it five or ten games and then Pat Beverly is going to start. I would start Pat Beverly immediately and bring Russ off the bench. They don't appear to have the appetite for that. We shall see what Arbenham does if it goes badly.
I think it's going to go badly. All of this happy talk and, you know, Russ is willing to do whatever it takes to win. I've heard it all before. I just expect it to not go well.
We know that he's a bad fit with those two guys, let alone a center along with them. I have no expectations for that. And I just look at the supporting cast without a trade, which we'll get to. It's just a little small.
Like, the wing guys are a little, none of them trend big. The shooting is just okay. Lonnie Walker's low 30s. Troy Brown's mid to low 30s.
Austin Reeves is low 30s. Kendrick Nunn's just okay. Wanta Scott Anderson's a non-shooter. We can go on and on.
Pat Beverly is the one. Again, I think whoever starts their best lineup has Pat Beverly, LeBron, AD, question mark, question mark. And I don't think one of those question marks is Russ. I just am not sure I see enough size or enough shooting to propel them up, up.
So I guess my ceiling definition for this team is slightly higher than 45 and a half. I can see like 48 on high end, which is enough to get you out of the play-in. And if you're in the playhouse with those two guys healthy, you've got a shot against anyone. I guess that's the ceiling.
Like, if you told me they beat Phoenix in the first round because LeBron and AD have a monster series and whatever supporting cast players do there, Rajon Rondo, KCP, hit every three from the bubble imitation in the first round, they pull an upset. I can see that. The floor is pretty low. The ceiling, I don't know how high it is.
But that's my pick on the Lakers absent a trade. I do think we're sort of underrating just how good they'll be if their two main guys are healthy. I just don't see enough in the supporting cast for me to put them that high in the West. Yeah, I mean, look, they're not a contender, right?
I think that, you know, I was trying to kind of scratch out my own tiers here before we started. And, you know, Warriors, Clippers, Suns might be my top tier. And then the second tier is Nuggets and Grizzlies. Something like that.
Is there a scenario where the Lakers are better than any of those teams, unless we're assuming injuries by those teams? I don't think so. By the way, the Nuggets, they're over under drops to 49 and a half over the last week or so. The latest lines have been down to 49 and a half.
Just one win above the Mavericks and the Wolves. I don't know why that would be, other than people are pessimistic on Porter. I, were I allowed to do so, would wager real money, without telling my wife, because she would not be happy, on the Nuggets to destroy that over. I don't know why they're...
I think the Nuggets are in that top tier. And Frank, given the internal chaos, I don't know that they'll win more games than Phoenix, but I would put their championship equity, like, higher than the Suns for sure. Yeah, I don't know. I would readily flip-flop those two.
And I think there's a major asterisk next to the Suns right now, given not just the shadow that Sarver and the sale of the franchise has cast and everything that we've all just learned but, you know, DeAndre Ayton's day one training camp performance of, yeah, I haven't talked to my coach, and the coach said, no, I haven't talked to my star center. Do people's phones not work? I don't understand. So Christian Wood says, this is the first I've heard of me coming off the bench, I'm like, dude, we all heard in July, I don't know where you were.
DeAndre Ayton and Monty Williams can't get on the phone, and God knows, the NBA's complaint hotline about major internal team issues and tampering has never worked, because no one's ever called it, and the NBA is able to be like, hey, how were we supposed to know if this was going on? Nobody called 1-800-BAD-STUFF at the NBA office. I never want to hear the word hotline again from the league. Change the hotline, eliminate the hotline, nobody is calling the hotline.
How about NBA Slack? Could I just create some Slack channels, and maybe Jason Kidd and Christian Wood can Slack each other, DeAndre Ayton and Monty Williams, we have more modes of communication, more different texting apps, all these different things than we've ever had in the history of the universe, and somehow a coach and a player can't straighten out where they are with each other. I'm not going anymore on the hotline. The Lakers, let's talk about the trade stuff that's been going on endlessly with can they get anything for us in their picks, 2027, 2029, whatever it ends up being, and as I've gone through before, it's hard to protect those picks because of the seven-year rule, you can't trade any picks that's more than seven years out from the present day, so it's not like they can protect them indefinitely like four times, lottery protected.
Right now, Mr. Beck, as far as I know, at 1024 a.m. on Friday, September 30th, they got nothing. There's no trade happening.
There doesn't seem to be any trade discussions that are deep in the works. The Bogdanovich ship sailed for now. They could re-engage the Jazz. They could re-engage the Spurs.
I've deemed any packages from those teams as insufficient for me to give up any major draft equity. It doesn't bump up my odds enough. The one I've said I would lose sleepover if I were a bus or Mr. Palenka is trading both picks to the Pacers for Buddy Heald and Miles Turner, and I'm not going to belabor why that is.
They feel two obvious needs. I am of the opinion that Anthony Davis and Miles Turner can play together. Some people disagree. That's fine.
It would be fun to see it on the court. My best intel right now is if the Lakers called to the end and said both picks are protected, the Pacers would do that deal, would probably do that deal. I don't think the Lakers are there for whatever reason. They don't appear to think that Pacers package puts them really in the championship inner circle and they're holding on to those picks unless they find a deal that they think gets them in the inner circle.
And maybe they're right to do it. Maybe they're sitting here waiting for some team to fall apart in the middle of the season and I would look at the Bulls. I bet the Lakers are looking at the Bulls and thinking, boy, if they just, if they crap the bed, can we trade Russ in those two picks for DeRozan and Vucevic? And I can hear Bulls fans thinking, well, we never do that.
That's way too much. Those are two hardcore guys even though Vuce is on an expiring and blah, blah, blah. I agree. I don't think the Bulls do that because that's going back to almost square one post-Butler trade for the Bulls and I don't think they have an appetite for that until the Lonzo thing is resolved one way or another.
So maybe this is just a Lakers roster, my friend. Maybe they're just rolling with it and saying if we have to punt, effectively punt LeBron's H38 season in terms of championship chances to roll over our cap space and sign somebody, maybe we'll do it. It's a fascinating dilemma. But they were on my list too.
So we are one for one in overlap. Incredible. Or maybe not so incredible. I will say that one of the most interesting things that Palenka said at their media day was this kind of implicit acknowledgments of the idea of a Westbrook trade without actually mentioning Westbrook in it when he says, look, we do have these two picks we can trade, but you can only do that once.
We cannot screw this up. It's got to be the exact right deal, which is true. Also, you know, it kind of indicates just how much pressure you're under to fix this thing that you screwed up when you acquired Westbrook in the first place. They can't afford to mess that up.
But to the question of whether you should do it in concept, I don't care what you're giving up down the road. Like, you do have LeBron at what is seemingly the final of his career, although it's LeBron. We never know when the end is going to come because he's not human. You owe it to him, you owe it to yourself, you owe it to the franchise, you owe it to history to give him the best chance.
And if that means giving up unprotected picks down the road, not just offload Westbrook, obviously, but to get something of use in return. If it's the Miles Turner buddy heel deal, if it's, you know, DeMar DeRozan, if it's whatever, even if you're just increasing your chances by 5%, I think you have to do it. You don't know how many more years of LeBron you have, or certainly a LeBron that can still put up the kind of numbers he did last season and probably will again this season. Like, what else are you doing?
What's the point? Like, what is the point, really? He's one of the greatest players we've ever seen, in some people's view, the greatest player we've ever seen. What the hell are you doing if you're not giving him the best chance to at least make a deep playoff run?
I don't even care. There's no assurances of making the finals, right? But just get yourself back in the conversation, legitimately, you're not there right now. And easy for me to say, and I don't know what deals would or would not be on the table.
I do think, and I always say this this time of year, things change very, very quickly once we get three, four weeks into the season and teams start to realize we're not nearly as good as we thought we were. Or a team like the Bulls, I think it's a fascinating one to watch. Balls on the shelf. They overshot last year as it was anyway.
You know, the Bulls, they can't replicate it if they start stumbling. Maybe they do pivot to a kind of on-the-fly rebuild. Who knows? There's lots of names we can mention, right?
Like, if the Wizards are bad, and what does that mean for Bradley Beal, who of course can't be traded immediately and has a no-trade clause, blah, blah, blah. The Indiana one is the only one realistically that I've seen that I would think really hard about forking over both the picks. And again, what I said earlier about what Indiana do with the Lakers do with whatever, that's just the best reporting I have, the best intel I have at this very moment. This intel is always kind of murky and it could change on a dime, including, as you said, if the Lakers are disappointing early in the season.
Enough Lakers. I'm done with the Lakers. Mr. Beck, your second most confusing team of the season.
Let's see if we go two for two. Okay, I'm going to stay in the Western Conference, and it's a team that we have kind of touched on in passing. You're Dallas Mavericks. Two for two.
Wow. Justify this because they were, in truth, I would put the Pelicans on this list had I not just done a deep dive on the Pelicans three days ago on this very podcast so people can listen to that. So Dallas was kind of my fifth sub for the Pelicans because I'm not that confused about them, but I'm more confused than you think I would be based on the fact that we know they have that dude running the show in Luka. So tell me why you're confused.
So it's because of that dude, right? They have Luka. They have Luka. Luka's awesome.
Luka's a top-five player in the NBA. He improves every year. They beat the Suns. Best record in the NBA.
They beat the Suns. They made the conference finals. It's hard to dismiss a team or downgrade a team or somehow come into the next season underrating a team that did all those things and has that guy. However, they've basically been a solid middle-of-the-pack team for the last few years.
Not a clear contender. They weren't even a clear contender last year until suddenly they made the conference finals. And that's, by the way, where Vegas has them now. 48 and a half wins behind that would be fifth in the West.
Yeah, by the way, so last four seasons, right? Go back four seasons, Luka's rookie year. 33 wins, they don't make the playoffs. The next year they jump to 43 and a shortened season would be the equivalent of 47.
The next year would be the equivalent in a full season of 48 and then 52. So 47, 48, 52, that's been their range. If you're a high 40s, low 50s win team, you're maybe a fringe contender, but you're not a clear contender. Does making the conference finals mean you've arrived and you're a contender?
I mean, the Hawks did it in 2021 and look what happened to them and the Blazers did it back in 2019 and look what happened to them. So it's not, we shouldn't overrate that we saw them playing against the Warriors in the conference finals. They still don't have a second star. And to the extent that Porzingis was kind of a pseudo second star, he's gone and Jalen Brunson is gone.
They lost him for nothing. They still need more playmaking and maybe Spencer Dinwiddie provides some of that secondary playmaking and it's scoring off the ball as well. Dinwiddie gets hurt a lot, has not reached the same height he did before his ACL in Brooklyn. So who's going to put up 20 plus points on this team consistently to support Luka?
Christian Wood. I've been treated by Christian Wood. A lot of people in this league are very down on Christian Wood and seeing this kind of a guy who has some talent and puts up numbers but is not a winning player. So it's not clear what Christian Wood has up to for them.
Also Christian Wood coming off the bench when he thought he was starting. So there's that. The other thing though is just, like the Pelicans now have a healthy Zion and CJ McCollum to start the season and Brandon Ingram, they have a plausible big three, a really, really potent one. The Timberwolves got Rudy Gobert and the Lakers as we just discussed should be better.
The Trailblazers are going to be better. I'm not saying the Trailblazers will be better than the Mavericks. I'm not saying any of these teams is necessarily better than the Mavericks. I'm just saying night after night, the West just got that much tougher and sometimes it just takes everybody else improving around you to kind of expose the fact that maybe you weren't that great in the first place.
So I mean, that's my basic thing. And I also come back to this very obvious, reductive, but true thing about the NBA. You need a second star and they don't have one. And it's very rare in this league, even a player of Luka's caliber, that you can carry a team to contender status conference finals consistently if you don't have anybody else to hang your hat on.
To me, the reason they're on my list is twofold. Number one, I have 100% confidence in their floor being really high as long as Luka is healthy and plays 70 games. He's just that good. They're 3 and D guys, you know, their system of a couple 3 and D guys, one ball handler, one big guy, depending on who that will be.
Like, that's a fail safe. That works. They're going to win a lot of games. My confusion is, can they vault up into that true inner echelon?
Is that where their ceiling is? And how did they get there having lost Jalen Brunson and effectively kind of replaced him with Tim Hardaway Jr. coming back? Very different player, not as much of a ball handler, more of a shooter, secondary ball handler, obviously, not as crafty in the paint as Jalen Brunson is.
And then Christian Wood for whom they traded their first round pick and some salary matching. And his fit to me is the other mystery because this team, I think people forget this because of how dynamite they looked in the playoffs offensively, they won the amount of games they did in the regular season because they had a top 10 defense all year. And one of the mysteries for me is, can they replicate that again? Was that smoke and mirrors?
Was it luck? Was it some combination of that? And how does Christian Wood fit with that? So if you play Christian Wood with JaVale McGee, he's going to have to guard fours.
Christian Wood's not that good guarding stretch fours. He doesn't have the attention, sort of the dialed in attention to chase them around. He loses them on the perimeter. Okay, so that's one thing.
If you play Christian Wood with Maxi Kleba, then you toggle the assignment so Kleba guards fours and Christian Wood guards fives. If you play Christian Wood as the only big man on the floor, and it's the big mystery of the mass to me is how much they're going to lean into that and when because they're going to be unguardable offensively with Christian Wood and four wings. Then he's got to defend fives. And I don't know if I get more nervous about him being my defensive center or my defensive power forward because he's not fair well at either spot.
He is in a culture where effort on defense is non-negotiable, where this team punched above its weight defensively last year because their rotations were always on point, their schemes were on point, their execution was on point. They did get a little bit lucky with opponents missing wide open threes at a super high rate, but they didn't allow a lot of wide open threes and they were fundamentally really rock solid defensively. I don't think their defense was seventh last year because of luck and smoke and mirrors. I think they were a legit good defensive team.
I just don't know how Wood fits into that picture. He's going to help their offense. And so that's sort of the big mystery of them for me is how they deal with Brunson going out and Wood coming in because I think that what player pairings work with Christian Wood and how do we use him is the biggest thing the Mavs need to sort out because the more they can play four shooters around Luka without compromising their defense and that's what Kaliba at the five gave them last year. The more they can go that way, the higher their ceiling goes.
I do think there is going to be an experimentation period early in the season where they try to figure out that question and that part of their identity. Just by the way, the Lakers with Russ, I think the downside of starting Russ is they could waste the first 10 games of their season trying to fit a round peg into a square hole or a square peg into a round hole or whatever it is. So I actually think there is a healthy bit of mystery for the Mavs. Their depth is only so-so like Josh Green, Frank Milikina.
They're interesting players. They've played an interesting role on this team as an extra good wing defense in various lineups. Can't play them with another non-shooter like JaVale, so that's another dilemma. I do think there's a fair bit of mystery here even though I'm quite sure this team's going to be really good.
They're going to be really good but again, when I'm scratching out tiers on the fly here, I don't think they're, you know, they're not in the contender tier and I'm not sure if they're in the second tier. I think they're somewhere in that third tier and that's the confusion, right? They made the conference finals. They have Luka.
They have a formula that they've established that they know can win which you just outlined and I think they'll still do it at a high level. I just don't know that they can break through and have a run like they just did without some changes. I love the Cleva-Wood pairing in theory. Both can roll, both can pop and Christian Wood, I do think people fixate on the second ball handler thing for Dallas and the loss of Brunson.
They are super optimistic that what Dinwiddie did in 23 regular season games and whatever playoff games was real. He shot it better. He looked like a good fit. We'll see.
I think an underrated part of Wood's game is people think of him as sort of pick and pop, shoot lots of threes. He can get his own offense both facing up against bigger defenders and posting smaller defenders. He's a really good off the drill player. I think leaning into him as fixed man is a smart way to start the season in part because I want him on the floor when Luka is resting every second and I think he can be a part of that second ball handler answer for them just depends on how much that, if at all, compromises what was their driving force last year in the regular season at least and that was their defense.
And I will just say too real quick in defense of Christian Wood or back to my, you know, my sunny optimist Fox Moller I want to believe mode in September is that Christian Wood whoever knocks people who run the league had on him as maybe, you know, empty numbers or whatever else or maybe they think he's a little selfish or a little flaky or whatever, he's in a winning program now and he's in a no-nonsense winning program with a no-nonsense coach in JC Kidd and is on an established team where it's not all about him and, you know, the change in context could be everything and so there's a chance to see the best version of him so we'll see. Well, not only that, not only has he played his entire career essentially with poo-poo teams playing for nothing, he's never played with anyone who can set him up for easy baskets let alone maybe the best in the entire league at doing that. I said last week on NBA Today, I think he might be the favorite for six men of the year. He could score 20 points off the bench for this team.
He could average 20 off the bench. That's how prolific he is offensively. I have no doubt about that fit. Hey, sports fans, the ESPN app has all of ESPN all in one place.
The ESPN app is your home to thousands of live events, ESPN shows, and originals across every ESPN network and service. Now you can check if you already have ESPN unlimited as part of your TV package for no additional cost. Visit activate.esbn.com to learn how to access your account or sign up and start streaming in the ESPN app. It's all of ESPN all in one place.
Sign up or activate now. Okay, well we're two for two so I'm going to let you continue leading. I'm this kind of host I am. You come to my house, we got your favorite drinks on hand, even if there's some fruity white cloth stuff that I think is dumb.
We'll have it on hand. Get your favorite food. Are you vegan? We'll get some vegan stuff.
Are you gluten-free? My number of gluten-free friends is piling up. I don't really get it, but good for them. We got gluten-free this, gluten-free that.
So give me your gluten-free third most confusing team in the NBA. Well, you're giving them all the gluten-free if you then have extra gluten just like sit in the pantry I'll just eat all the extra gluten because I eat it. There you go, just a pile of gluten. I'm just kind of sitting in the corner just scarfed gluten.
My third most confusing team. I guess we're in no particular order other than... What? You're banned from doing this podcast in the future?
You didn't rank them? You spent time ranking them? The Lakers were definitely number one. And then you just stopped.
You're one of those. Like after that, it's irrelevant. It's just a random list. That's what you think of this podcast?
You put that little care into the podcast? All right. My sincere apologies, Zach. Thank you.
Give me your third most confusing team. We go three for three. I think that might be unprecedented in the history of this podcast. Scholars will have to check that, but we'll see.
Are streamers going to come fluttering down if we go three for threes? Is there going to be like a marching band? I'm curious to see what happens. I mean, speaking of teams that made the conference finals, and so we go from underrating them to overrating them to now not sure what the hell to do with them.
I jotted down next to the Hawks. All they need is some defense, right? So 43 wins last year. A big come down.
Smoked in the first round by the Heat in five games. I don't know how to define even where they are. Is this an identity crisis? Is this a retooling?
Are they still retooling? Is John Collins, who's been on the trade block for like 532 consecutive days, eventually going to be traded? Is he still there? They were 26th in defensive efficiency last season, down from 18th, which at least was semi-respectable the year before.
The second best offense last year. All right, so they get DeJounte Murray. They get DeJounte Murray. DeJounte Murray should improve their defense.
He should improve their offensive balance. He should force them to adjust a little bit. Nick Trey, you know, adjust his game a little bit, play out the ball a little bit more, diversify the offense, make them a little bit harder to guard, a little less Trey-centric. There's all these things that should happen.
They have in DeJounte and DeAndre Hunter and in Capella, you've got the outline of a respectable defense perhaps. And yet, we don't know how DeJounte and Trey are actually going to match and how much control Trey is going to be willing to give up offensively, ball control, playmaking, all that. They have some serious injury histories with key guys. You know, obviously Boganovich, Hunter, Collins.
I just, I almost feel like, it's not like they're a new team, the core of a team that we've seen for the last few years is there, but I almost feel like I'm looking at them as a new team in some way. And I also think that maybe there are still other shoes left to drop because it seems like they're always on the verge of potentially trading John Collins if they find the right deal. The Hawks are at 45 and a half wins over under according to Vegas. And I think if you zoom out and tear out the East, here's why the Hawks are confusing.
Tier one is Philly, Milwaukee, Boston. No, no, no, no, no. careful Nets don't get to go in that tier you just don't get to go in that tier after the last two seasons you're out of the fair now that's three of your six non-play and playoff spots occupied I think if people went right below that they'd say wait a second Miami was in the conference finals they were on there a team that did not make my most confusing teams list because I am wildly high on them and again would bet the over if such things were allowed is Toronto Brooklyn now we're up to six and I think the Atlanta confusion and one of my other confusing teams falls into this bucket too is Atlanta is in that tier somewhere and I think the question is are they at the high end of that tier like are they so good on talent with one of the best offensive players in the league a system that works so well they were number two in offense last year a defense that just has to be better than it was at number 26 adding to John Day Murray who will actually get this team some steals this team forces no turnovers he will help that get them out in transition will he match with Trae Young we'll see he will prop up the offense when Trae Young rests which has been a chronic problem for them although less so in the latter period of that year that are they so good and John Collins whatever you think of him is a really really good player Clint Capello was a borderline all NBA player two seasons ago had a step back last year should be out here this year he's still not even 30 on pure talent you look at that starting five Trae Young DeJounte Murray Hunter Collins Capello great lineup off the bench Murray is effectively your backup point guard Bogdanovich coming off injury we'll see optimistic that he's been part of their best lineups since he's got new Atlanta Justin Holliday Jalen Johnson not great at the three and four Otongu as a backup center is elite on talent you look at that team and say are they so good that they're at the top of that Miami Toronto Brooklyn tier with a shot going to the top three or do we not believe in their defense do we not believe in their death do we believe that there are going to be hiccups in the Trae DeJounte fit DeJounte Murray ran are there going to be hiccups there that they're one injury or one bad break away from being like oh my god the Hawks the Hawks are ninth I think the level of variance with this team might be higher than with any team in the entire NBA there are no brainer for this list I mean the highest level of variance is a team that you've banned from this podcast but there's a team that you didn't mention even in just the clutter that the Hawks have to break through because they're on my list don't spoil it but go ahead and say their name the Cleveland Cavaliers are somewhere in this mix and so again like I was saying with the Mavericks there's this problem of it's not just whether or not the Hawks made good moves it's also just that things are really freaking crowded because this is where the NBA is right now there's a lot more quality teams not necessarily elite dominant all-time teams but there's a dispersal of talent where you just have a bunch of teams that are at minimum solid and we don't know what the Cavs are going to become which is why they're on your list but they should be in this mix they should be in that second or third tier and that potentially shoves the Hawks all the way down to a best plan in the 7-10 range and you know then things can get dicey but I mean look is there a scenario where the Hawks where everything falls into place and they snare one of the six guaranteed spots you can tell me there's scenarios that's where they win 50 games and that's how good their talent is now that requires Bogdanovich being healthy to start the season it requires I mean they're not the sexiest names but I think two of the most important guys on this team short-term and long-term are DeAndre Hunter and Onyeka Okongwu it requires Hunter becoming way better as a catch-and-go playmaker and more willing as a three-point shooter which he's still very young he's not that young but he's still pretty young and Okongwu I think is a stud the only downside is he can't play really with Papella so you have a minute ceiling kind of placed on him and their depth is their top eight I love after that I get nervous although Justin Holliday I think was a sneaky important part of that herder trade for them he's just like your classic dependable bench wing just everybody's happy to have Justin Holliday on their team I just have no idea how many games this is going to win again they're over-runners at 45 and a half by the way so is the Raptors boy would I hit the over hard on that that Hawks line feels dicey to me like I don't know where I would go with it I just know that they could go a lot of different ways and I'm fascinated to see see how they play I mean defensively again they were 26 last year but you look at opponent shooting numbers they just got lit up from everywhere how much of that was luck how much of that was just bad defense we know Trey is a huge liability defensively that they have to hide Murray will help underrated part of Murray is that DeAndre Hunter no longer has to guard these super quick guards like DeAndre Hunter had to guard everybody because Trey Young can't guard anybody he had to guard the best guy on the other team and sometimes that meant really fast guards and that's not the best matchup for him he guards up in size better than down in size so Murray's here for that I don't know what to make of this team I think it would be a disappointment if they fall I think fans would be justified being disappointed if they're in the play in tournament even though I think that's a totally realistic outcome for them I think being anywhere below 8th would be a major disappointment regardless and you can tell me that they finished ahead of Miami-Toronto I wouldn't be surprised I think they're the most confusing team in the league outside the Voldemort that shall not be named I agree by the way I just wanted to note for the record though you do not bet you have now made I think like 17 theoretical bets in the course of discussion you know why because I've come to realize that I'm just going to have to learn more about gambling it's just going to be part of our job and part of our industry it's something I have not had any interest in I don't you know people are like well you can get this money line at this and that I'm like this is like foreign language I'm just going to have to learn more about it I've accepted that I'm sorry Jimmy which one that you're promoting and you click it and you go to some screen and there's just like numbers everywhere and I just lock up I don't know what plus 300 means it's all just confusing me can I ask you a question not related to basketball and I'm doing this selfishly because I mentioned recently on a podcast that every once in a while I just want to take three minutes and talk about something that's awesome because I think we should talk about things that are awesome more so what's your favorite television show that you feel like nobody ever watched your like hidden gem television show oh of all time of all time of all times wow it's funny because actually we just finished season two of a series that's new right now that I don't think enough people are aware of called Reservation Dogs do you know this on Hulu I've heard of it don't know what it is Reservation Dogs is about kids on an American reservation that's what the reservation is referring to the dogs part is that they have dubbed themselves as their group of friends as the res dogs the reservation dogs it's incredible I've never seen any other series quite like it I don't know exactly how to describe it it's moving it's funny it's creative it sometimes moves into some really strange spaces that are just wonderful there's just so many great things going on I cannot possibly describe it as well as say our friends Andy Greenwald and Chris Ryan over at the Rigger on the Watch Pod I was just listening to them rhapsodized about it after I finished season two because I like listening to their analysis they're smarter about TV than I am it's incredible it is a series that I don't think like it's not I have not heard any buzz about it outside of say like TV critics on podcasts it's fantastic my wife and I finished it last night highly highly recommend my second favorite show there's a public service announcement my second favorite show ever and I have not watched that much television in the last 10 years so I think it would be great at all is Halt and Catch Fire nobody watched Halt and Catch Fire phenomenal that was one of our yeah that was one of our lockdown shows when the world shut down we just started binging everything we did that Halt and Catch Fire is absolutely incredible everybody should watch it I saw it about two years ago and I loved it so much and then I saw Mina Kimes wearing a Halt and Catch Fire shirt on TV one day and I texted with Mina I was like wait a second are you a fan and I'm test driving this idea now Mina and I love the show so much that we hit the creator of the show Christopher Cantwell and we hit some of the cast members and said would any of you like to come on the Low Post podcast which is about basketball and just have Mina and I ask you questions about your amazing show and they're in and we haven't done it yet so Twitter people listeners should we do the Mina Kimes Zach Lowe Halt and Catch Fire love fest maybe yes no let us know back to the Hawks yes back to the Hawks I guess we'll see part of the issue with their wing depth is it's a little harder for them to get to DeAndre Hunter and power forward which has been off and on a good lineup for them sometimes defensively challenged just a lot of mystery with the Hawks Howard if we go 4 for 4 I might actually go get a Mango White Claw from the beer fridge and bust it out on this podcast now what is your 4th most confusing team just pretend that you rank them okay it's not the team that you referenced earlier that's on your list that we should probably get to but I did include the Memphis Grizzlies they're not on my list so we are now on separate tracks I did a Grizzlies preview with Chris Vernon a couple weeks ago people should check that out I will let that suffice for my thoughts but I'm interested to hear why you think they are confusing Mr Beck I'm not sure whether they overachieved and I mean that as a compliment not as a knock they've got a great established winning formula John Moran's going to attack you he's going to make plays he's going to get to the rack he's going to score all kinds of creative impossible awesome ways they have elite defense they've got shooting they've got toughness they've got youth all of it I believe in I think all of those things are substantial and real and they can replicate it for another season but is that enough in a Western Conference that is now closer to I guess normal for lack of a better term meaning we're presuming the Nuggets are at full strength sometime soon which Jamal Murray and Michael Porter with Kawhi Leonard back we're presuming a Clippers team that we all believe could be if not a contender in some places the favorite to come out of the West with Kawhi Leonard back if the Suns don't stumble because of all the weirdness shrouding them the Warriors are starting the season with Klay Thompson now fully functioning and a nice crop of young players who are part of the rotation the Warriors are better on opening night of 2022 than they were 2021 they won the freaking championship we discussed the fact that the Lakers are possibly a little bit better the Pelicans are better and the Timberwolves are better the Blazers and Kings are even possibly better than they were I just think that in the mix of all that and again I think those teams are all ahead of the Grizzlies I just think the West has gotten measurably tougher and especially at the top and the Grizzlies were the number two team in the conference last year by wins so is now Jaron Jackson Jr. starting the season on the shelf stress fracture in his right foot is John Morant plus all that stuff we talked about enough given the sheer talents at the top of the West right now and that's what I don't know and so while I think that they will fundamentally be just as good as they were just as solid as they were it may still result in them slipping a few spots in the standings I will let my comments with Chris Vernon stand I agree with you on your concerns many of my slight Grizzlies concerns and his listeners might remember zero long-term concerns love what this team has love what they're doing any slight concerns I have this year that they are at some risk of falling toward the play-in tournament maybe into it are 100% about Jaron Jackson Jr.
being injured for an undetermined period of time if it's 10 games those concerns are small if it's 30 or 20 or whatever those concerns get bigger and just replacing the Anthony Melton Kyle Anderson minutes and all of that but bet against Ja at your peril doubt Ja at your peril doubt their toughness at your peril long-term they remain as intriguing and as exciting as they were four months ago but I don't disagree with you having them here now we're going to go to my list my list you have something to add about the Grizzlies? no I was going to ask you where were you on the 21-4 whatever they were without Ja where did you fall on the explanation rationale and what that actually means for them? I thought it was a big enough sample size to certainly be of interest and indicate that their defense improved without him to such a degree that they were able to win a ton of regular season games and yet I said all along last season as they were winning those games that the playoffs were a different ball game and that they were dead in the water without his shot creation in the playoffs and the playoffs proved that to be correct and so I can see them winning a ton of regular season games again if he misses time when he misses time but they just don't have anyone that can replicate what he does breaking down defenses even close in the playoffs and their offense floundered without him against both Minnesota and then the Warriors who I agree with you by the way I saw Pelton's projections and people can go crazy about Pelton's projections this is just numbers it's just numbers the numbers assume things like injuries and age-related regression and they don't know what to make of James Wiseman and Kaminga and they assume certain things about minutes distribution they assume maybe certain things about how much a team's going to care about the regular season and yet I was still very surprised when he projected the Warriors to win 42 games this year that to me is insanity I think the Warriors are going to be amazing when they care I don't know how much they're going to care about the regular season but I 100% agree with you they should be at their apex better than they were last year and all they did was win the freaking championship now we're going to my list my number 4 most confusing team I don't know I don't remember what my rankings were oh you're going to chastise me about ranking well now my rankings are a mess because I threw all my papers around I'm going to say they're number 4 the Portland Trailblazers you mentioned them earlier as a team that has improved in the Western Conference they certainly fancy themselves as a team that has improved in the Western Conference they acquired Jeremy Grant for the small price of one first round pick and some other things they are hoping to get some minutes from guys that they acquired sort of willy-nilly over the last couple years your Justice Winslow's your Keon Johnson's maybe Shane Sharp even cracks the rotation they signed Gary Payton he's going to be a key player off their bench and I think also kind of playing a lot with their starters they extended Anthony Simons who I mean these numbers blow your mind man this is Anthony Simons catch and shoot 3 point percentage catch and shoot which is what you want around Dame you don't necessarily want you know a guy who's going to be in there around with the ball run laborious secondary pick and rolls whatever catch and shoot 3s high volume 48% last year 51% in 2021 this dude is an elite elite shooter who can carry the offense hopefully to some degree keep it afloat keep it treading water when Dame who's obviously coming off injury and surgery so that's kind of a question mark too when Dame is on the bench and so there are reasons to look at this team and say okay that's the outline of kind of a good team their starting 5 is going to be Dame, Anthony Simons question mark Jeremy Grant, Yusuf Nurkic the question mark could be Nasir Little could be Justice Winslow could be Josh Hart who I really like it's a good solid starting 5 their bench will be Simons respectively a backup point guard Gary Payton Jr and I would be the thing where I still have Gary Payton Jr in quickly to play with the starters if I'm going to use Simons as my backup point guard because he fits he can play the more shooting and talent you have around him the better he looks two of the Nasir Little Josh Hart Justice Winslow I thought long and hard about them I did not ultimately put them on they are confusing there's no question in a large part it's the obvious what do we make of this team after a season in which Damian Lillard was out with the most serious injury of I would say probably his career what is he now and what is he in a backcourt with Anthony Simons instead of CJ McCollum and what does Jeremy Grant provide and is just importing a couple of guys like Grant and Gary Payton Jr is that enough to make you a plausible defensive team now an area that's obviously long been a sore spot for them and then even if you go with the optimist view of them hey look Damian Lillard is still elite and we assume health Simons has been he broke through last season and Grant props at the defense he's first blah blah blah it still comes back to the fact that the West as we were discussing has gotten just so damn good that a few years ago maybe this version of the Blazers would have been a top 14 in the West and in today's West they could struggle to make a play they're just so blah to me I look at that lineup that I just mentioned it's fine like it's just fine I think Jeremy Grant has become a little overrated I love all the wings I mentioned as the fifth starters they're all fine fifth starters Nurkic is just okay as a starting NBA center, he's fine. Damon Simons, it's like, can we defend with two small guards for the 10th consecutive year in Portland?
And if Nurkic isn't a borderline elite backline defender anymore, and I don't think he is, I think he's lost a quarter of a step or so defensively. I just, Dame, Simons, Nurkic, I just don't know how you build a good enough defense around that trio, and that which is why I would bring Peyton in early in games for Simons. And the bench is like, just okay, I mean, who's their backup center? Drew Eubanks, Trenton Watford, Trenton Watford has one of the great floaters in the NBA, that's cool, he's undersized the center, he's not great.
It's just so blah. And when the Blazers have been really, when the Blazers have been good in the last 10 years, it's mostly been because their offense is incredible. So their offense ranked 27th last year, throw out the windows of last season, they were tanking so furiously, I almost admired it in the last 20 games of the season. The previous three years they were second, third, and third in points per possession.
And that lifted up a defense that in some years was awful, in some years was average, in some years was somewhere in between. I just don't look at that team as brilliant as Dame is, and those numbers are a tribute to Dame, because those supporting cast were not like chock full of elite offensive players outside of CJ McCollum. I just don't see like an unbelievable offense out of that personnel, and I certainly don't see a good defense. I don't see great depth in the ability to withstand an injury to one of the best players.
I just see a blah, it's just blah. Like I see a 500 team, and they're confusing I guess because there's enough there to intrigue you and talk yourself into, well they could be six in the West, they could win 45, 46 games, their over-under is around 40, it's 39 and a half. And there's also so many questions that I could see the season really slipping away from them. I think they just look kind of 500 to me.
Last year they tried this crazy blitzing defense with Nurkic, even though that's not how they're built to play, they played a lot of zone, and they just found absolutely nothing that worked. And schematically, I don't know what Chauncey Billups' answer is going to be this year, but it's not how they played last year, even at full health, they can't blitz and trap, they just gave up tons of threes and tons of shots at the rim. I just feel kind of blah, man, I feel bad because I love Dame, and I like Portland, and they have some of the best fans in the NBA, and I just don't know where they're going. No, I don't either.
At minimum, let's hope that there's a full season of a healthy Dame doing Dame things again, and that alone will make them fun to watch at times, and him and Simons together could be really explosive, and yes, they're undersized and all that other stuff. So at minimum, hopefully the Blazers are at least fun and interesting. I know you've referred to the lineups several times unless you've seen this as blah, but the non-blah thing is that you have Dame and Simons. Yeah, it's exciting, it's exciting, you're right, that two-some is explosive.
And so, yeah, but look, probably they're scrapping around in the, you know, let's try to make the last play-in spot. And yet, I sit here and I'm like, I really like what Naseer Little showed last year before his injury, and he's healthy, and I think he's going to start going full blast in camp and playing well. I think GP2 is a really good fit on this team, although it's hard for them to do the thing that the Warriors did, which is build lineups where he's the only non-shooter on the floor, so he has free reign to roll to the rim. I would like to see them try, like, Justice Winslow at center, and just sort of see how that looks, not that he's a shooter, he's also a non-shooter, but I just would, given their other options at backup center, they should at least try that, and I think they're going to find minutes for Sharp, I think they're impressed early with what they've seen from Sharp, I just don't know how he fits into your standard nine-man rotation, but I think they're going to try and find minutes for him, so there's again, like, I can talk myself into it, but at the end of the day, I just don't feel awesome.
You want to get to your 15, I have already revealed my 15. Well, let's talk about the Cavaliers, because they're another one that I seriously considered and then left off because I decided, why I'm not confused, is that I just think they're really good, they're going to be top six in the East, and there are some things that have to go right there, and some adjustments and things, but I didn't feel that confused about the Cavs. You just feel like those four guys answer enough of the questions that this is a four, I mean, top six in the East could take 47 wins. So, I'm convinced that Voldemort, for now, is somewhere in that top four or five, along with the six or Celtics Bucks, and so there's the four, and then five, six comes down to a three-way battle between the Heat, Cavs, and Raptors.
That's the way I see it right now. You didn't even mention the Hawks, so you're hating on the Hawks. No, because they're more confusing for me, I've downgraded them just lately as I'm scratching out tiers, that Well, look, let's just be clear. Two of the following eight teams are in the play-in tournament.
However you want to slice the health, the luck, the injuries, the math, whatever, two of Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Boston, Miami, Toronto, Voldemort, Hawks, Cavs. Two of those teams are in the play-in. Come to grips with it, Cavs fans, Hawks fans, Voldemort fans, Raptors fans, Heat fans. Two of those teams, all of whom, if you ask them internally, of course we're a top six team.
Of course. No brainer. Disrespectful to say otherwise. Okay, well, two of you aren't going to be.
I feel about the Cavs exactly as I did about the Hawks in that I can't decide if I'm pure talent because those four dudes are so good. They're closer to like fourth, third in the East or closer to seventh, eighth in the East. I guess I lean, like I lean towards, I think it's more likely they're hosting a first round playoff series, four, five, four, five. I don't think they can get higher than that without something bad happening to somebody else than they are to be eighth or ninth.
But eighth or ninth wouldn't surprise me. I would say I think Cleveland's more likely to be like fourth or fifth just based on those four guys because offensively, Garland and Mitchell are a great fit. Mitchell solves the we can't score without Darius Garland because we have nobody that can dribble after Ricky Rubio's injury, problem. Mobley and Jared Allen solve a lot of problems defensively together and then staggering them so one is always on the floor.
And then my concerns though are not so much the small forward spot like everyone's fixated on they don't have a big wing, they don't have a big 3 and D wing, you know, is Isaac Coro going to make any shots who's starting at the 3? I have no idea who's going to start at the 3 and I don't really care. I care, I care. It's an issue they're going to have to solve medium term and long term.
I don't really care if they solve it immediately. Could be Acoro, could be Jetty Osmond, could be even though he sounds like an accountant. Good things happen when Dean Wade is on the floor. Just do, on both ends of the floor, he can guard a lot of positions and shoot threes and he's a smart player, good things happen so maybe it's him.
I just worry a little bit about their depth. I'm not ready to trust Acoro, Osmond's alright, Wade's alright, Kevin Love was a massive part of their depth last year and we'll see if he replicates what he did, I think he could. I guess it comes down to until Rubio comes back, their depth feels a little shaky to me, like their bench is going to be Neto, Levert, Jetty, Love and one of the big guys. I mean that's fine, that works, it's one injury away from like, oh my God, Lamar Stevens is heavily involved here and that makes me a little bit nervous, but I think I'm pure talent, these guys are really, really good.
I'm just interested to see how good, how they withstand adversity, how they fill out their depth and how they do guard the Tatums and Browns and Hardens and Durants and whoever's of the world. And yeah, of course nobody can guard those guys, but you need somebody so that you don't have to swarm with nine guys to prevent them from scoring. And I think long-term, medium-term, one of the reasons I'm not that really super worried about the theoretical small forward hole is I think long-term, medium-term, short-term even, the guy that can guard those guys is Evan Mobley. And I know Evan Mobley is a quote-unquote big, but it's not that hard in the modern NBA to finagle the matchups so that Evan Mobley is guarding Jason Tatum.
I mean, in the finals, Anthony Davis guarded Jimmy Butler. I think it's not that hard to do and I think he's the best equipped for it. And by the way, he's going to be a monster. I mean, the stuff you're hearing about his shooting and his playmaking, so I'm a little confused about them, I'm optimistic, but I think there's a little bit more of a short-term downside, a little bit more severe or slippery of a short-term downside than maybe people have realized given the excitement over the Donovan dream.
Yeah, but I also think that when you have that much talent, if you have four guys who are plausible all-stars, you know, three of them already have been and one of whom soon will be, you're already starting so far ahead that when you're talking about the who to start the small forward or is the bench quite good enough, whatever, like a lot of that, it's not that it goes away, it's not that it's not important, it's just that given health, you've got the ability to stagger your stars, you've got the ability to always have in their case, you're always going to have an and you're just starting from such an advantage of having, you know, four of the gel stars on your roster, so to me that means that their floor is very high, like they're just not, no matter what question marks we can raise, they're going to be fine. I think their floor should be seven and that's by the way, all of this is before allowing for the fact that maybe the Bulls withstand these injuries, this injury to Alonzo better than people expect, it could be Sunu and Pat Williams making a leap, whatever it is, both those guys should make a leap, they should get better allowing for the Knicks to exceed expectations or whatever wild thing you want to predict. I think Cleveland's floor should be seven and I'd be the fifth team we didn't get to, which you're going to be happy we didn't get to it because I put this one in there partially because I thought it would be fun, partially to make your head explode, partially because I legitimately put on my Fox Mulder hat and said I want to believe in the Sacramento Kings. Look, I talked about them last week with Kevin Pelton.
I think they're way better than their projections. Their over-under is 33 and a half. I find that crazy low. I just don't know what believing means we could get 10th.
That's the belief. And by the way, hang the banner, hang the banner Vivek, you got 10th, hang the banner, lost play in probably by a lot, 2022-23. But I think they're going to be solid. But, you know, people can listen to my Kings podcast from last week with Mr.
Pelton to see what I think about Malik Monk and Kevin Herter and Harrison Barnes and DeMonte Savonis and on and on and on. I think they're a solid team. They're interesting. And we didn't really get enough of a sample size of Savonis and De'Aaron Fox together to really know what that will look like.
And now, you know, it's the whole usual thing. They've got a full training camp with them. They've got more shooting now. They've got a lot of interesting pieces.
They're high on Debbie Mitchell. Everybody seems to love they're aiming for. The 2022-23 Kings. Can we be a competent franchise?
And can we be competent enough that if we're competent for 20 games, we don't get A, irrationally exuberant, or B, so dumb that we do something that sabotages our own competence like firing the coach or making a crazy trade because that's what they do. Every time you see a little light at the end of the tunnel, they just destroy the tunnel and everyone gets smashed underneath the rubble. Just competence. And the best way to do that is, here's our defensive scheme.
It's simple. We know the personnel's not great. But just like the Mavericks last year, if you just follow the rules all together, on a string, try really hard. We can be average defensively.
The Mavericks are way better than that. We can be average. If we're average defensively, we give ourselves a chance to win every night. Maybe not average.
Maybe like 18th, 19th. But we're close to average. I'm high on the Kings. 10th place, hang the banner.
10th place if Portland fails, or the Lakers fail, or the Pelicans fail. 10th place, hang the banner. If they finish 11th, if they finish 11th and miss the play-in, imagine if they finish 11th and miss the play-in on the last day of the season. They're playing for 10th and they lose in some super Kings-y fashion, I just, I hope they get 10th.
It would just be too much. I do not wish that on them. Obviously, you know, my Northern California ties, you know, grew up in the Bay Area, went to school UC Davis down the road from Sacramento, and on top of that, I spent all those years covering Lakers-King series, and so I know how passionate, how intense that fan base is, how much they love the Kings when they're good. They've got this great new arena that has just gone, you know, I don't want to say, like, it's not this big right or useless, it's just like they can't even show it off, because they never play any games that matter, and Kings fans deserve better, Sacramento deserves better, and that 16-year drought needs to end, it's slightly, it's just if they get to 20, if they get to 20 years, I have to think more about this, something has to happen, like, I'm not even sure what I'm saying, like, if they get to 20 years, they need to, I don't even, I just don't even know, I was going to say they need to let Chris Webber take over the team, they've already let every ex-King have some role in running the team, they need to let, they need to just let the fans, they need to hold a random drawing of fans to be the GM and coach of the team if they get to 20 years, without making the playoffs, I think this actually goes back to one of my drunk with power ideas that we covered a couple years back, which was my concept of team ownerships, it's a 10-year contract, and at the end of that 10 years, you have to be renewed, and if you're incompetent, if you're terrible, if you're corrupt, if you're a horrible person, as some recent owners have shown themselves to be, then you don't get a new 10-year run, if you are not the owner, you are a steward, this is temporary, the fans can vote you out, so if the Kings get to 20 straight seasons of no 99, but it's still really cool, so yes, okay, let's wrap with that, I am a little confused about the Kings, as are you, Mr.
Beck, we can read you at Sports Illustrated, we can listen to you on the crossover with Chris Mannix, can I mute Mannix and just listen to your part, is that okay, or just listen to the one with you and a guest? I actually recommend The Muting of Mannix, yes. The Muting of Mannix, that sounds like a movie about some long-forgotten war in the 1800s, Mr. Howard Beck, it's great to see you, I'll see you soon at the Barclays Center, where we can see the team play basketball.
After the PTC's Actual.