Florida Races Explained! Why Paxton vs. Talarico is Really Dallas vs. Austin (with Brian Brushwood)

Florida is a red state, but it’s never without interest and intrigue. Byron Donalds is going to destroy everybody in the Republican primary for governor. He’s been a Trump loyalist, has Trump’s endorsement, and all the rumors about Casey DeSantis running amounted to a hill of beans. Alex Vindman will likely win the Democratic Senate primary before losing to Ashley Moody in November. But the more interesting races are farther down the ballot, where several people may be out of politics forever when this is over. Florida’s newly redrawn 22nd District has seven Republicans competing for what’ll likely be a safe Republican seat. It’s also where I finally found my line on AI-generated political content. A website attacking Belinda Keiser includes an AI image depicting her having sex with Jeffrey Epstein. I’ve had a lot of tolerance for campaigns turning metaphors and fantasies into images, but I guess my line in the sand is a candidate getting piped by Jeffrey Epstein. Now we know. David Burke appeared to be surging at the end, but there isn’t much reliable polling. Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. The race I’m watching most closely is Florida’s 7th District, where Corey Mills is seeking a third term against former television sports reporter Ryan Elijah. To say Mills is scandal-plagued is to say Pinocchio is only helping Monstro’s dental health, babe. Mills has faced allegations involving two former girlfriends, while the House Ethics Committee is examining possible sexual misconduct, inaccurate financial disclosures, campaign-finance violations, improper gifts, special favors tied to his office, and misuse of congressional resources. He denies wrongdoing. Sparse public polling suggests he could lose, and Republicans in Washington are desperately hoping he does. In Florida’s 20th District, redistricting pushed Debbie Wasserman Schultz into a traditionally Black seat. She’s running against former representative Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, Dale Holness, Elijah Manley, and Uncle Luke himself, Luther Campbell. With four Black candidates dividing the vote and no runoff in Florida primaries, Wasserman Schultz only needs a plurality. I think she’ll win. Let the sun shine down and reveal the truth as Florida votes — and start a stopwatch when the polls close, because these races will probably be called within about 90 minutes. Shocking how fast that can go. Just saying. Congressional Democrats are preparing another war-powers challenge after Trump threatened to bomb Oman if it obstructs efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. They’ve been looking for another non-affordability way to hit Trump over Iran, and this is a good strategy. It’s a historically unpopular war, and they want to tie him to it every way they can. Meanwhile, the administration has paused construction of a border wall inside Big Bend National Park while CBP reviews the project. Not all border is created equal. Big Bend accounts for a small share of crossings, and there are easier, lighter ways to patrol an area where somebody might still have to walk for three days after crossing. ABC has also filed a First Amendment lawsuit accusing the FCC of retaliating against the network for its editorial decisions. FCC Chairman Brendan Carr has threatened to revoke ABC’s license amid his fight with the network, particularly over Jimmy Kimmel’s comments about Charlie Kirk’s death. It’s not surprising that ABC is bringing a legal challenge, even if only as a predicate to any FCC action. If you’re ABC and the chairman of the FCC threatens your license, it would be malpractice not to take him seriously and prepare in case it actually happens. Chapters 00:00:00 - Intro 00:04:08 - Florida Races 00:20:49 - Oman 00:25:47 - Border Wall 00:28:02 - ABC Sues FCC 00:29:35 - Brian Brushwood on the Nuances of Texas’ Electorate 01:25:20 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe