Follow the Money: A Rules-Based Look at What's Driving Markets

Most advisors are getting their market intel from the same three TV networks that make money every time you stay glued to the screen. John and Jack Kosar of Asbury Research don't work that way. They follow the data. In this episode, the three of us dig into what the market is actually doing right now - not what the headlines say it's doing. We talk about breadth, sector rotation, bond yields, the Mag 7 concentration debate, the AI bubble question, and what you should actually be saying to nervous clients this quarter. John's been doing this for over 40 years. Jack brings the institutional translation layer that makes it actionable. If you've ever felt like the financial media is working against your clients, this one's for you.  Episode Timestamps 00:00 - Intro & guest background: John and Jack Kosar of Asbury Research 02:30 - Reading the current tape: S&P fresh highs, breadth, and what's really leading 07:30 - Sector rotation deep-dive: what's quietly winning and what's losing steam 11:30 - Bond yields and the inflation signal the market can't ignore 15:30 - The Mag 7 concentration debate: fragile market or media narrative? 19:30 - Why forecasting is just guessing dressed up in a suit - and what to do instead 23:30 - AI bubble vs. dot-com: the real difference this time around 26:30 - Preparing for the next big correction: what 2022 taught us 29:30 - One piece of advice for advisors sitting across from nervous clients Key Takeaways 💡 The parts of the market that should be leading - NASDAQ, semiconductors, Mag 7 - are leading. When the data lines up that cleanly, tune out the noise. 💡 Drawdown analysis is one of the most underused tools in an advisor's kit. When the market sells off, that's exactly when you should be studying what's holding up - because that's what you want to own on the way back. 💡 Bond yields near multi-year highs are a signal from the bond market that inflation is real, regardless of what any talking head says. The bond market doesn't lie. 💡 Market timing and trend-following are not the same thing. Nobody is trying to predict the future - they're following the money. There's a big difference. 💡 The 'stay invested always' narrative benefits fund companies, not your clients. The best days and worst days in the market tend to cluster together during high-volatility periods. 💡 Asbury's blend of their sector rotation model (CIF) and correction protection model (CPM) was up 8.6% in 2022 - a year the S&P was down nearly 20%. 💡 If you're worried about clients missing 'the best days,' make sure they're also prepared to survive the worst ones. They tend to show up together. Notable Quotes 🗣 "The business is way too tilted toward forecasting. Forecasting is a euphemism for guessing. It gets you on TV. It gets your clients excited maybe. But I make more money and I sleep better at night just following the models." - John Kosar 🗣 "The messaging that goes out to investors is really tilted toward: just give me your money and shut up and I'll send you an electronic birthday card once a year. And I think we could do better than that." - Adam Koos 🗣 "Clients want to know that you have a plan - and that you're going to do something about it if the market starts to go sideways. You don't have to be a market technician. You just have to be open-minded enough to look at options that are tested and proven." - Jack Kosar  🗣 "Follow the money. The money is the boss. If you can figure out a way to track where the money is going in a comprehensive way, you don't need forecasts." - John Kosar   Resources & Links Mentioned Asbury Research - rules-based market analysis firm founded in 2005, offering SMAs on the Schwab platform and model portfolios available on advisor TAMPs. Interested in adding Asbury's models to your TAMP or learning more about their SMAs on Schwab? Reach out directly to John or Jack via the links below. Connect with Asbury Research Website: www.asburyresearch.com YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@asburyresearch  John Kosar LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/johnjkosar/ Email: [email protected] Jack Kosar LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-kosar/ Email: [email protected]   Follow Adrenaline Advisor Facebook: https://facebook.com/adrenalineadvisorconsulting Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/adrenaline.advisor Threads: https://www.threads.com/@adrenaline.advisor LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/adrenaline-advisor-consulting/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@adrenalineadvisor YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@AdrenalineAdvisor Email: [email protected] Website: www.adrenalineadvisor.com   Connect with Adam Koos LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/adamkoos Website: https://www.adrenalineadvisor.com