Following The "Fed Breadcrumbs" | Nick Timiraos on “Not Hot At All” Labor Market, Interest Rate Cuts, and Fed’s Collision Course With 2024 Election

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Nick Timiraos on Twitter https://x.com/NickTimiraos Nick’s work at WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/news/author/nick-timiraos Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Nick’s book https://www.amazon.com/Trillion-Dollar-Triage-President-Pandemic/dp/0316272817 Nick’s article on Fed and 2024 election: https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-interest-rate-cut-inflation-politics-a6e527de __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (12:35) VanEck Ad (13:14) Interview Continues (19:35) What Would It Take For The Fed To NOT Cut In September? (24:17) Is The Federal Reserve Worried About A Weakening Labor Market? (25:44) Immigration's Impact On U.S. Labor Market (31:41) The Housing Market (36:41) Permissionless Ad (37:40) Politics And The Fed: "September Rate Cut Would Thrust Fed Into Brutal Election Campaign" (47:24) It's Simply A Fact: Former President Donald Trump Likes Low Interest Rates (50:37) Could Donald Trump Fire Fed Chair Jay Powell If Re-Elected President? (54:49) Economic Forecasting Is Very Difficult, And There Is Always A Point of Data That Confirms One View Or Another (57:47) What If High Interest Rates Are Actually Stimulative? Nick Doesn't Buy It (And Neither Does The Fed) (01:02:44) The Way The Fed Thinks About Financial Conditions __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.