Forecasting

What this episode covers

Forecasting: Predicting Demand or Predicting Ourselves?Forecasting is one of the most talked about disciplines in Workforce Management, yet some of the most important conversations rarely make it into the room.In this episode, I explore the fundamentals of forecasting, from historical data and seasonality to normalisation and outlier management. But I also challenge some of the assumptions that sit beneath many forecasting processes.What happens when poor service levels create repeat contacts that become embedded in the data? Are we forecasting genuine customer demand, or simply the consequences of our own operational decisions?I also take a look at forecasting culture, including the overuse of technical language, the dangers of judging forecasts using hindsight, and why organisations sometimes seem to have multiple versions of the future at the same time.We'll discuss:How operational performance can artificially inflate demandThe difference between forecasting and planningWhy two teams can produce different forecasts and both be rightThe role of reforecasting and where it can be misleadingStrategic business decisions that change the future after a forecast has been producedWhy mature organisations focus on trade-offs rather than blameThe real purpose of forecasting in supporting decision-makingUltimately, forecasting isn't about being right. It's about helping organisations make better decisions with imperfect information.Join me as I unpack the realities, frustrations and misconceptions surrounding one of the most important disciplines in Workforce Management.

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