Forecasting the AI Bubble

We get a lot of questions about whether we're in a bubble & if so when will it burst. Many feel that "Bubble" is a pejorative. I see it differently. To me a bubble is an economic event where asset prices & valuations in a new or growing market rise far above their current value. Bubbles are characterized by media hype, investor exuberance, fast/easy money & FOMO. Bubbles do not always burst in a sudden, catastrophic event. Sometimes they have a "soft landing." AI can be technologically transformative and still produce a capital bubble. Those two ideas are not in conflict. The bubble bursting does not require AI to fail. It only requires deployable supply and capital commitments to grow faster than monetizable demand. When productive, revenue-producing AI capacity takes longer to materialize, pricing will normalize and financing will no longer bridge the gap. That’s when the capital cycle possibly resets and a liquidity crunch ensues.