Forecasting the Future with Kalshi: America’s First Regulated Prediction Market

from No Priors: Artificial Intelligence | Technology | Startups · host Conviction

In this week’s episode of No Priors, Sarah sits down with Tarek Mansour, CEO of Kalshi—the first CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange in the U.S. They dive into Kalshi’s recent victory to legalize election betting, explore ethical questions around trading on elections, and discuss whether prediction markets can offer more accuracy than traditional polls. Tarek shares insights on the history of futures markets, the line between gambling and financial trading, and the psychology behind betting. Plus, Sarah makes a live election bet, and Tarek reveals some of Kalshi’s most intriguing markets. Sign up for new podcasts every week. Email feedback to [email protected] Follow us on Twitter: @NoPriorsPod | @Saranormous | @EladGil | @MansourTarek Show Notes: 0:00 Introduction 1:22 Sarah makes a live election bet on Kalshi 3:35 Getting approved and regulated by CFTC 5:48 Going up against the CFTC to legalize election betting 7:21 Debating the ethics of trading on elections 8:12 Gambling vs. trading 9:12 Context and purpose of futures markets 12:38 The human psychology behind speculating /Humans conditioned to risk taking 17:17 Building a healthy exchange and scaling liquidity 19:30 Introducing leverage and working with clearinghouses 22:29 Polls vs. prediction markets 24:59 Conditional markets 26:38 What makes Kalshi’s markets accurate 31:29 Tarek’s insights on the most interesting trades and markets on the platform

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This episode was published on October 31, 2024.

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