Forecasting the US Economy in Uncertain Times

In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, host Kristen Hallam engages in an insightful discussion with Ben Herzon, co-head of US Economics at S&P Global Market Intelligence. They explore the complexities of economic forecasting in turbulent times, focusing on how to differentiate between signal and noise in economic data. Ben shares his expertise on the significance of the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) as a leading indicator for economic trends, particularly its role in predicting industrial production and GDP. The conversation also explores the impact of tariffs on inflation and economic growth, highlighting the resilience of the US economy amid recent challenges. Ben discusses the factors contributing to the growth outlook, including recent budget legislation, federal spending, and inventory management by businesses. Additionally, they address the risks to economic growth, such as potential increases in tariffs, inflation surprises, and the implications of a government shutdown. The episode concludes with a look at how scenario analysis is used to navigate uncertainties in economic forecasting, providing listeners with a comprehensive understanding of the current economic landscape. Tune in for a deep dive into the dynamics shaping the US economy and the tools used to forecast its future. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: Global Economic Outlook: September 2025 Picture This: Company Sentiment on Tariffs Turns More Negative in Earnings Calls The US Home Improvement Market: Trends and Challenges Ahead Credits: Host: Kristen Hallam Guest: Ben Herzon Produced By: Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun