Forecasting with Confidence

Gone are the days of forecasting for the year ahead. Spurred by the chaos of the pandemic and ongoing market uncertainty, CPG manufacturers and retailers must continually monitor the marketplace, weighing decisions against consumer behavior, macroeconomic factors and business strategies. Nagi Jonnalagadda, senior vice president, Global Products & Solutions at IRI, recommends companies change their approach to forecasts from point-in-time planning to scenarios with varying levels of confidence.      Highlights     Consumers are proving to be more resilient to dramatic price increases than expected. But they’re now starting to change their shopping behaviors to manage inflation.  Forecasts should be considered scenarios with confidence intervals, with broad upsides and downsides and an agile approach as scenarios evolve.    Forecasting is now a blend of art and science with new tools and unlimited data inputs. The art is shutting out the noise to identify and monitor the right demand signals, focusing on what matters most to your business.