Forex Daily Podcast - Wednesday, February 15, 2006

The JPY started out very promising yesterday, then faded quickly. Provided you had a good entry you should have been able to exit with a profit. This types of move is precisely why we stress good money management, the good setups don't always deliver. So if you take profits along the way and don't let good trades go negative you'll do ok until this type of setup delivers the big move. Overall we continue to favor a stronger USD, but the question becomes where do I place my stop. On the EUR the safest place is just above the 1.2026 high, although this doesn't provide a good enough risk:reward ratio at this point. We still continue to favor a stronger USD, but sideways trading for the next few days wouldn't surprise us. The EUR currently trades at 1.1905. The GBP currently trades at 1.7415. The CHF currently trades at 1.3080. If you look at the breakout of the JPY and count the waves on the 15 minute chart you'll see the move up from 117.10 subdivided better as corrective waves, 3 wave counts than impulsive waves. When the currency shot up yesterday and started to pull back, this was our clue that this was not going to be the impulsive move up that we were looking for. We'll still be looking for a trade up with a stop just below 116.88, but we'll have to let it get really close to this level or count a complete 5 wave move down on the 15 minute chart before we enter for a trade up. The JPY should pull back some today and currently trades at 117.55. The CAD pushed up just shy of our 1.1630 target at 1.1610, We'd like to see the CAD run up to within 30 pips of yesterday's high, then we'd entertain a trade down with a target of at least 100 pips and a stop just above yesterday's high. Forex Currency trading is very risky, please read the disclaimer on our web site. Visit us on the web at www.elliottexchange.com or at forex.podomatic.com. Good Luck and Good Trading