Fractured Baselines: When Policy Rewrites Reality

Today's episode dissects the growing disconnect between official economic narratives and the underlying forces reshaping global markets. We explore how unilateral trade actions, energy policy shifts, and a volatile geopolitical landscape are forcing a recalibration of risk, and why the Fed's toolkit may be losing its power. Read this edition in full at https://www.pers-int.com/?digest=Macro%2C%20Geopolitics%2C%20Investing%20Evening%2FCompact_Digests%2Fdaily_digest_compact_2026-02-25_17-38-29.html&channel=Macro%2C%20Geopolitics%2C%20Investing%20Evening&latest=1 0:00 - Introduction 1:00 - AI Investment & Market Rotation 11:51 - Geopolitical Risk & Trade Policy 16:57 - Emerging Market Performance & Risks 21:00 - Macroeconomic Outlook & Fed Policy 23:00 - Conclusion Referenced sources: - "EM Fixed Income Risks around a positive base case" (At Any Rate) - "Meta to Spend Tens of Billions of Dollars on AMD Gear, Buy Stock" (Bloomberg Intelligence) - "Instant Reaction Trump Touts 'Turnaround' in State of the Union" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Nvidia Earnings Loom for AI-Obsessed Stock Market" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite James Seyffart" (Forward Guidance) - "Why a Doomsday AI Blog Wiped Out $300 Billion" (Prof G Markets) This episode is independent commentary and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the sources listed above.