Framing the New START Follow-On Discussion

Following an earlier conversation with Bob Peters and John Warden on a possible U.S. force posture after New START expires on February 5, 2026, we look at the arms control side of the coin to brainstorm what a New START successor agreement may look like Mallory Stewart and Mike Albertson, two former U.S. government officials with decades of experience in implementing strategic arms control agreements, join us for the discussion. Mallory was most recently the Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of Arms Control, Deterrence, and Stability, whereas Mike has held a number of national security positions across the U.S. Government, working at DoD, State, and the NSC.Vipin and I talk to Mallory and Mike about how China may factor into a new U.S.-Russia agreement or trilateral discussion. We also consider whether the future accord should focus on numbers or something else, the relationship between quantitative arrangements and strategic risk today, and dive into how negotiators may handle inspections, non-strategic nuclear weapons, and other specific provisions. We also raise the possible format for a multilateral negotiation that brings in other P5 states. The group discusses why flexibility is going to be important for U.S. arms control policy moving forward, as future measure may (and perhaps should) stray quite a bit from the formal, bilateral treaty-based approach of the past.Finally, we discuss how the U.S. Government should prepare for a new round of talks—how do you get arms control on the agenda?—as well as the international community’s expectations for a U.S.-Russia negotiation before the NPT Review Conference in 2026, and how other states can raise the profile on arms control to help get some forward progress.Bios for our guests:https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/experts/mallory-stewart/https://cgsr.llnl.gov/experts/fellows/mike_albertsonIntro/outro music licensed by Soundstripe: “The Iron Curtain” by Wicked Cinema.Recording and edits through Riverside.fm. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit strategicsimplicity.substack.com