“Freeing Thucydides” by djbinder

Prompted by discussion with Buck Shlegeris and others at the Forethought retreat. The idea that AI could bring an end to Thucydides traps is Buck's. Speculative. I think it's plausible that we will not see sustained competition between actors for control over the future, due to one of two outcomes: If we have AGI, growth and shifts in the distribution of power could become much more rapid. One actor plausibly just outgrows the others and forms a hegemon. If that fails to occur and there is uncertainty in the outcome of competition, it would be in everyone's interest to use AIs to negotiate a positive-sum agreement: give up hard power in exchange for whatever they can get. AIs provide enforcement mechanisms that were previously lacking. Both routes end with hard power held globally by a singleton that can then maintain control indefinitely. Unlike every previous hegemon or institution, an AI singleton does not die and faces no external rivals. It could therefore continue in perpetuity, exercising a monopoly on hard power though not necessarily other aspects of the future. Whether this would be good is a separate question, which I will briefly return [...] The original text contained 1 footnote which was omitted from this narration. --- First published: July 10th, 2026 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NDoAHbduZfqdbgNzA/freeing-thucydides --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.