Frequently Asked Questions: Oil Shocks, Economic Resilience and Risks to Growth

In this episode of The Decisive, host Kristen Hallam speaks with Ken Wattret, vice president of global economics at S&P Global Market Intelligence, about frequently asked client questions on the recent oil shock, the conflict in the Middle East and the possible implications for the global economy. The conversation was originally recorded on May 12 and considers how the jump in crude prices compares with past oil shocks, why the length of the disruption is critical, which economies appear most exposed, and what indicators can help track the effects on growth, inflation and monetary policy. Ken explains that the increase in Brent crude prices following the start of the Middle East conflict was unusually large, with the monthly rise exceeding 40%. He cautions that the shock is still unfolding and that shortages, if they develop, could intensify the negative effects on global growth. Although S&P Global Market Intelligence's base case still points to continued global expansion, Ken says the global real GDP growth forecast has been revised down markedly since February. Ken says global growth surprised to the upside in 2025 despite extreme uncertainty over U.S. trade policy, repeated tariff announcements and fears of retaliation, suggesting economies have adjusted to repeated shocks in recent years. Key risks discussed in the episode include a failure to reach an agreement to end the conflict, a resumption or spread of hostilities, more persistent disruptions to energy production and supply, higher-for-longer prices, possible shortages, stronger inflation, higher-for-longer interest rates and asset-price problems. Listen to the full episode for Ken Wattret's perspective on how the oil shock could affect global growth, inflation and monetary policy — and what indicators may signal where the risks are headed next. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: Midyear Economic Check-In Geopolitical Risk Brief: June 2026 Banking Risk Monthly Outlook: July 2026 For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Monthly Macro Monitor Middle East war Credits: Host: Kristen Hallam Guest: Ken Wattret Produced By: Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun