From China’s Two Sessions to US Payrolls: A Consequential Week Ahead

Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss a global macro backdrop where markets appear calm at the headline level but show significant divergence underneath, including record-high equity dispersion, private credit uncertainty despite tight spreads, and varied European inflation and growth dynamics alongside flat ECB rate expectations. They preview a busier week of data: Australia’s inflation gauge, GDP and trade (watched for expectations of one more RBA hike); Europe’s February CPI, unemployment, retail sales, and final manufacturing and services PMIs; and China’s “Two Sessions,” including growth targets and the 15th five-year plan. They also flag CPI releases across multiple emerging markets. In the US, focus is on ISM manufacturing and services, the Beige Book, ADP, and Friday payrolls, where a surprise could have an outsized market impact.00:00 Welcome and Introductions00:27 Calm Markets Hidden Divergence02:14 Key Global Data Week Ahead03:48 US Data and Payrolls Focus05:25 Weekend Watch Sports Picks06:14 Long and Short Takeaways06:33 Closing and DisclosuresThe opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.