From Coffee to Consoles: The State of Europe’s Consumer

Season 9, Episode 11 This week on “Know More. Risk Better.” Logan Miller sits down with Mariya Nurgaziyeva, CFA and Amarveer Singh to decode a mixed European consumer backdrop with real credit implications. They unpack why personal consumption is lagging other growth drivers, what a pause in ECB cuts and softening labor markets mean, and how country-specific pressures in Germany, France, and the UK are filtering into earnings and spreads. Then they tackle tariffs and input costs - who’s truly exposed (spirits and luxury), why the hit has been more manageable than feared, and how mitigation via cost cuts, pass-throughs, and near-shoring is playing out. They map commodity pressures (vegetable oils, cocoa, coffee, dairy, beef, poultry), the surge in private label as volumes flag, and where pricing power still holds - like coffee. Expect clear takeaways on what’s driving consumer sentiment, base cases versus market worries, and how to position around sector and country catalysts that could move spreads—whether they widen on cost shocks or keep grinding tighter on defensives and experience-led demand.