From Net Supply to Coupon Stack Plays: Mapping MBS Value

In this week’s Convexity Pulse, Kirill Krylov reviews another strong week for mortgages as spreads tightened and volatility eased—though he warns the calm may soon break. He digs into the supply–demand tug-of-war shaping MBS markets, with tepid but steady bank buying, REITs stepping up, and the GSEs still waiting in the wings. Finally, he walks through relative value opportunities across the UMBS 30yr coupon stack, from deep discounts to production coupons and the challenging high-coupon minefield.