Front Line Dynamics, Deep Strikes, and a Theory of Victory

Brussels Sprouts is back after our summer hiatus, and we’re jumping right back into Ukraine. Over the past several weeks, the war has entered a more dynamic and dangerous phase. Ukraine has expanded its campaign deep inside Russia, striking military and industrial targets, logistics hubs, and infrastructure supporting the war effort while continuing efforts to isolate Crimea and raise the costs of the war for ordinary Russians. Russia, meanwhile, is intensifying its own campaign against Ukraine. As Kyiv grapples with a growing shortage of air and missile defenses, Moscow has increased the pace and sophistication of its long-range strikes, relying on a larger number of ballistic missiles designed to overwhelm Ukraine’s increasingly constrained defenses. At the same time, Russia has stepped up attacks on Ukraine’s ports, grain infrastructure, and commercial shipping, threatening one of Ukraine’s most important economic pillars, just as the country enters another harvest season. The military partnership between Moscow and Pyongyang also continues to deepen, with Russia employing improved North Korean ballistic missiles and reports suggesting that North Korea could send additional missile personnel—and potentially tens of thousands more troops—to support Russia’s war effort. These battlefield developments are unfolding alongside an expanding Russian hybrid campaign across Europe, underscoring that the conflict is increasingly spilling beyond Ukraine itself and placing growing pressure on NATO and the broader European security environment. To help us make sense of these dynamics, we’re delighted to welcome Jeff Edmonds and Rob Lee back to Brussels Sprouts. Jeff Edmonds is the president of True North Policy, a senior analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses, and an adjunct fellow with the Center for a New American Security. Rob Lee is a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute and a former Marine infantry officer.