Fundamental Weekly Review (EN) - Oct 3rd, 2026
from Fund@mental Weekly Review
This week on Fundamental Weekly Review, we trace seven reports showing how the old 60/40 portfolio playbook is breaking down on shifting macro ground. We start with the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index suffering historic losses from a Fed tightening cycle, sticky core inflation, and duration risk eating returns — though fixed income may be regaining its footing as income, not price appreciation, becomes the real driver of returns. We look at why markets abruptly abandoned expectations for further rate hikes, and why a "pause" doesn't mean victory over inflation, especially with oil and government spending driving prices beyond the Fed's control. We dig into a global refining bottleneck — not a crude shortage — hollowing out capacity in the West while the Middle East builds megaplants, and why that's quietly fueling structural inflation through diesel's inelastic demand. We unpack historical precedent on rate hikes near elections, the fragile voluntary AI safety pact signed by Google, Meta, Anthropic, xAI, Nvidia, and OpenAI, and why 5% inflation and yields may be the new normal requiring a full risk-model recalibration. We close with a superpower summit long on photo-ops and short on substance, leaving the real points of friction unresolved. Final question: with central banks, tech giants, and superpowers all operating on fragile, temporary truces, which domino falls first — and are risk models ready for it?
Embed this episode
No transcript yet.