FX Moment: Assessing Narratives That Take the Euro Past $1.20

The G-10 FX narrative has mainly been dollar- and structurally driven year-to-date, while euro headlines have been sidelined. This could change into 2H as European fiscal stimulus starts to lift the region’s economic narrative and validates the ECB-driven relative yield advantage into 2H. In this episode of FX Moment, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Constantin Bolz, Head of G-10 FX for UBS’s Chief Investment Office, focus on the euro side of the bullish euro-dollar view and how a cautiously optimistic euro macro narrative can be consistent with a euro-dollar break of $1.20. They also present their strongest G-10 FX convictions for the year — on pro-cyclical currencies including the Aussie dollar and the Norwegian krone — and touch on expected Swiss franc and yen fortunes for 2026.