FX Moment: Iran War Shift First Step Out of Sterling Bear Cycle

The US-Iran ceasefire and associated relief in risk aversion and pullback in oil prices may be a first step out of the sterling-dollar bear cycle of the past few weeks. There will be cyclical relief as the market adjusts back to less hawkish Bank of England rate expectations, which were hurting the pound via the stagflation narrative. Structural relief may also emerge, as the expected monetary-fiscal policy mix implies less reliance on fiscal stimulus to support the economy and reduces fiscal credibility concerns that have become a constant consideration for sterling. In this episode of FX Moment, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Bloomberg Economics Chief UK Economist Dan Hanson discuss the U-turn in Bank of England rate and growth expectations in the context of the Iran conflict, fiscal policy, as well as how UK politics could shape sterling’s near- to mid-term dynamics.